Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Updated! NHC Ups Yellow Circle to 50% Orange Circle in the Atlantic......As the Coastal Storm Begins to Move Up the Coast.. Getting Ready to Lift North Along the Coast ...




Odds now up to 50% in the 5 day.
40% in the 2 day.
NHC really fast tracking this system.
When they like something it's apparent.


Has more "there there" tonight.
Also being sheared, not in the best environment.
Not closed off as shown by the image below.


But getting there.
Where's it going?
Models show it following the leader.
As I pointed out this morning.
This is a few days from now.
Models show various variations.




So yes the Carolina Panthers lost.
Our storm slowly began moving away.
The Yellow circle became an Orange Circle...
...as the NHC seems to really like it.

Sebastien is the next name on the list.



This loop shows when a system begins to spin.
It shows MANY things....
...but it's a great predictive tool.

Took a nice drive up into the country a bit.
The Falls River Recreation Area.
That means the dam...
...by the river where they made a lake.
Too cold up on the path by the lake.
Sat down by river shoots out from the dam.
Hasn't been much color this year.
And what color we had pretty much blew away...
...in the last two storms.



Pretty tho... always.
And on the way near the house...
Street near where I live.
Usually more color in mid November.
Lots of trees whose leaves have blown away.



***


Morning Visible.
Eye like center there.
Briefly there... but beautiful.
Gotta enjoy what you got when you got it!



Yeah there's a 30% chance according to NHC..
...of something to it's SE forming.
But we can talk on that tomorrow...
...if it's still there.
Who can ignore this beautiful spinner?


Look how picture perfect our no name storm is...
.... and Monday it's your storm up the coast.
Because what starts on the Carolina coast...
..doesn't stay here this time of year.
As we dance our way into Winter.


From the Capes of the Carolinas...
...to the tip of Long Island.

Wind advisories all the way up the coast.





Watch the sea foam on the beach...
...gosh I love that.
And the erosion doesn't show well on the video.
Beaches been eroded for a while.
Only getting worse.
Winter storms after tropical systems.
Barrier island beaches ...
...always rearrange with the storms.

Listening to meteorologists online and on air talk today makes my heart beat faster for football on a Sunday afternoon with a quasi storm stronger than many of our named tropical storms this past summer. Transference of energy.... handing off as the system waits for the strong winter storm to throw a long pass and for the coastal low to pick up yardage and go all the way up the East coast impacting other much loved beaches on the way.... the same way it played with our beaches down here in the Carolinas.


Online energy is wonderful.
Always funny stuff here from him.



Images, videos, discussion.


And as always detailed explanations.

"And tomorrow for New England"

Check that out... this thing will take off soon!

And always there's some cruise ship drama...




Truly Annapolis is beautiful.
I like New Bern better to be honest.
But well... food, beverages.. 
it's a vacation right.




Love it really.
Weather, earth, science, history.
Music, dancing......

A bit of weather history today here.

Good article in the Wall Street Journal on Project Storm Fury; leaves out a lot about it's earlier days and I could say much but will leave for another day. Love the use of the word "seriously" here as controlling the weather is the stuff dreams are made of ....    And nations do it on a small scale all the time be it rain for crops or no rain on opening day ceremonies at the Olympics. But controlling big hurricanes as romantically heroic as it sounds pales in comparison to the every day enhancing rainfall for crops to grow in their season. A good read on some history, sort of a primer and well worth your time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-the-u-s-tried-to-control-hurricanes-11573880461

Going to leave you with a link to read.
If you want...when you want.
Or save it for another day.
May all your favorite teams win!
May you enjoy your favorite weather....
... and be surrounded with love, friends and life...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me on Twitter.... for real time updates.
Follow my friends.... 
.... you won't find anyone like them.






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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:28 AM 0 comments

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Updated 11 PM 70% RED in GOM (OLGA??) ... N ATLANTIC GALE ... Front Brings Snow, Maybe Thundersnow & Mucho Rain For the South as it Hooks Up with our GOM System. Hushpuppies & Maple Bourbon Coffee. NC State Fair...


11 PM

70% Chances of development.
I went to the fair.
I haven't followed it much.
I walked everywhere.
I've had enough.
Going to bed but ....
... just putting this up now.


Getting there bit by bit.
What will we find tomorrow?

 

Models consistently take it to landfall.
But as a named system or TD?
Or merging with the front at landfall?


The picture below shows how close...
...the mega system is to coming together.
Another view below.


There is some consolidation tonight.
Is it enough for a name tomorrow?
Or TD status?
Think Hybrid .... 

In Oklahoma it snowed today.
Woodward is prime Tornado Real Estate.


So pretty.
Amarillo got Thunderstorms.
Snow...

As for 97L
There's something going on there.
What will the NHC do in the morning?



I went to the fair.
The NC State Fair.
Love watching things spin.



I'm going to sleep.
Oh and incredible sunsets.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Keep reading if you didn't do so already!



3 PM
60% Orange for 97L


Regardless of what happens.
The nasty weather from the front is real.
This may become a Tropical Depression.
Short lived as many have been this year.
Olga if it gets a name.
But the name of the game is ...
The Cold Front.
And moist, tropical weather feeding it.
Creating a stronger front than otherwise.



You can see how the visible image above.
Matches up with the models below.





I'm going to the Fair.
The State Fair.
For all your 97L needs.
Please check out Spaghetti Models.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

I'll update way later.
Please read if you did not do so..
Again the 3 day loop is below.

I'll say one thing.
This most likely will not be the last GOM system.
To grab a ride with a front across the SE.
My question is later in the month...
as in BOO!
or early November.
Fronts will get further South.

It's just that time of year.
Everyone wants to say it's over.
But it's not over til Mother Nature..
..says it's over.

Keep reading if you did not already

10 AM view of 97L




So they reconsidered the situation.
And less than 2 hours after their 8 AM
They put out a special update.
Orange 50%
Invest 97L begins...



Note they mention "tropical depression" right off the bat.
So would expect this to happen....
...unless it suddenly collapses.

This always had a window of opportunity.
It was a short window.
97L has to make the most of it...
...and is doing so this morning.

Models below.


Many models at www.tropicaltidbits.com
Satellite loops too!



The reason they went with TD is...
...it's gonna have to do more than this.
But it is flirting with TS status.
So should next few model runs...
...match it's rapid blossoming.
It's a long shot but odds are going up.



Link to loop above image.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=97L&product=ir



My candy cane satellite.
Much convection....
...approaching front above it.

I'll update later today...
....keep reading if you didn't.
It's still all valid.
Except we are not orange...
...no longer yellow.

(check out that wave by Africa..)
(I'm whispering ...wink wink)

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768Γ—496)

Who are you?
Where do your eyes go first?
Do you watch that wave off of Africa.
Low and late in the season....
The big swirl in the North Atlantic?
Or colors showing in the Gulf of Mexico?
That's our mixed basket today.


We know what DaBuh is looking at ;)
Me too... 
But officially check out the GOM
BOC today, GOM tomorrow.
It's a GOM system...
...making landfall.
You can watch in real time.
The front and the Invest!

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640Γ—480)

30% Yellow Circle 
Long shot Olga.
Unless Olga forms somewhere else...


(ya never know...what goes in 2019)

Mike has a plethora of loops and info..
Easy to use on your phone...
...take the tropics with you everywhere !!


I may design a purple shirt later today.
Lots of tee shirt options.


Picture of our area of curiosity above.

Video i made quick this morning ;)


Sipping Maple Bourbon Coffee with Pumpkin Spice Latte Creamer this morning as the man on Spectrum News is giving the weather for what to wear to the State Fair today. We definitely are deep in Fall in the Carolinas. In the Gulf of Mexico a moist, latent area of convection is going to blossom today and fantasize about getting a name as the Cold Front dips down towards it ...reaching out, grabbing it and zoom, zooming it away towards the Deep South. Slow enough to get some real rain, moving too fast to probably get a name. But it is tropical moisture and when tropical moisture meets up with a front that has an edge, trouble ensues. Stay tuned for that drama and watch the video below showing the next 3 days of stormy weather in the South.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799Γ—559)


When I was a little girl and obsessed with the weather maps in the newspaper I would always wonder why they do this switching back and forth game. Cold front dives down, then goes stationary, then a bit of a warm front develops and then WHAM the next stronger front dives down and blows them all out to sea and then in a few days.... they do the dance again. Being an intense sort of person I obviously thought all the fronts should DIVE DOWN and SWEEP DOWN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. And all hurricanes should move WNW until them slam into South Florida. Give me a break, I was young. The first time I lived in an apartment on Biscayne Bay and looked out my bedroom window the reality hit me.... "if we get a hurricane it would blow all of this away...." and I began to worry more than wish on them. From the relative safety of growing up further inland in Miami and later 4 blocks from the ocean on Miami Beach we told ourselves storm surge wouldn't be a problem. Once you have a water view from your bedroom it's a different story.



Enough about me .... but the reality is that is where most of the South is at this time of year. We keep looking South to see if some wayward, surprising system will form and we look longingly at those tweets of snow falling onto people's decks out in the Northwest somewhere and wish a bit harder the fronts get a bit stronger so we can wear our winter clothes and sip pumpkin spice latte and long for Thanksgiving to get a little bit closer! What are you longing for today? I have weather in the low 40s this morning, but by the time I go out... I won't need a sweater as the thermometer launches up towards the low 70s. Kind of like a strong, Miami cold front...but I'm in NORTH Carolina. 



Note Sunday the rain begins to threaten...


And seriously look at how much rain is there.
How fast does it move?
Timing is everything here.
Whoa.... 30% Yellow.
Being monitored in the GOM


But that other area in the N Atlantic
Steals your attention.
Tomorrow the GOM system will steal it back.


That is an amazing North Atlantic Swirl.
Swell, System... Impressive.




So let's look at the tropics fast.
Definitely blossoming today.
Much more convection.
Intenser convection.
Congregating, waiting ...
...to be pulled North by the front.
When I say "North" I mean UP
Exact track of that remains to be seen.
But Mississippi and Tennessee...
Getting rain...

Compare and contrast the video above...
...with how it looked last night.




Note I called it a long shot.
A long shot of being OLGA.

Either way it will be...
..a hybrid sort of system.
Many faces of Olga or just ..
...rain, soaking rain.
With a touch of cooler weather.
We aren't getting Arctic Air yet!

But Colorado has snow... 
...beautiful snow.
Rumors of an East Coast snow...
...are blowing in the wind.
The scent of hype and hysteria...
...is mixed with burning leaves and PSL.
And wishes for November snow.

I'd give the marginal snow for the East Coast..
..better chances than the long shot Olga.
But time will tell.

That's it for me.
I have big questions to deal with currently.

If you were going to get hush puppies.
Let's just pretend...
Would you get 


(it has applesauce sauce on top with a glaze...)


A) Cheerwine ones?
or 
B) Pumpkin Spice Latte ones?


Or would you just go for ICE CREAM?
From NC STATE Howling Ice Cream ;)


And that's it.
Check it out for yourself.

https://www.greensboro.com/gallery/news/photos-new-foods-at-the-n-c-state-fair/collection_f9bb5276-4dad-5d1f-913b-bf007329300b.html#26

I'll update when we see what will be.
I wouldn't hold your breath for Olga.
But it's been an odd year naming wise.


And as for Amarillo...
...they may be getting Thundersnow.


Yes... Cantore is always dreaming of Thundersnow.
What are you dreaming of?

I'll update in real time.
Depending on how much time I have.
Have a wonderful day.


Oh and Cranky may Live Tweet soon.
So that's always entertaining!


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
(going to be lots of fair pics as the week progresses)
(Don't say I didn't warn ya)

For an old friend :)



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:35 AM 1 comments

Monday, August 12, 2019

Hot Summer Days. Hot Summer Nights. Rainy Afternoons. Tropics Ominously Quiet. Waiting on the Last Week in August. Fronts Draped Lazily Across the South.


Officially nothing happening.
Nothing expected for a while.
Now's your time to prepare.....
... you'll thank me in September and October.

5 day visual graph of rainfall possible.
That's a lot of rain.
You can see the frontal boundary.....
...draped across the US.
Either side of Florida.


Some models spit out a small low by the Carolinas.
Others try to get some spin in the GOM.

Yup... kind of normal.
It's called Summer.
Hot, humid for days.

And then things change.
End of August.
August 23rd or 24th.
August 25th...
Things begin to appear.
As if out of nowhere.

Feels a lot like hurry up, hurry up...
...then slow down, slow down.
Wait until September.

I know it seems endless.

I have to tell you I don't like seasons like this as they are prone to ramp up fast and often causing close in trouble that seems to come out of nowhere. And then when suddenly there's one there's another one and another and it seems like an endless parade of low pressure systems that suddenly can form as if someone sprinkled tropical dust into the dry Atlantic. The Gulf of Mexico calls as does the Eastern Seaboard and everyone wishes we could go back to nothing or they begin to pray for winter to show up the way they prayed for hurricanes or an afternoon thunderstorm to break the hot, humid August afternoon. 


Football is beginning to show up on air and kids are shopping for school supplies and starting school. El Nino is gone and people are wondering if we are moving fast towards a La Nina Winter as whispers of ice and blizzards are out there because there's nothing else to talk about. A Derecheo may form and air traffic in and out of Chicago could be a pain soon enough and afternoon thunderstorms will form and rain themselves out every afternoon in the South. That big huge dry high deserted us...

Put the planet in motion....

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

This is why they sing just another Manic Monday.


You'll have to forgive me.
I grew up in LA in the 80s.
That's what Facebook says.
True in ways.
Came into my own in the 90s.

But you know I'm a Miami girl.
And, I'm worrying on the hot summer rain.
It often brings a hurricane....
...up from the Caribbean.
Late September, early October.

Worrying on it a bit.
Til then I'm keeping busy.
So should you.


Learn the lyrics.
They say a lot about life.
My life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

For now it's hot summer nights........


GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif (900×540)

What annoys me is why does the EPAC have old sats?

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Wondering what new satellite loops will show up ...
... several are currently not working.
What's with that?

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:13 AM 0 comments

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Hail, Waterspouts and Thoughts on the 2019 Hurricane Season. Will It Have An Early Start Along the SE Coast This Year? Maybe...



Great picture of yesterday's Fake Snow in Florida.
Thanks Mike.... you're an angel!
Why is he an angel? So many reasons.

Note this Tweet on yesterday's low off the FL coast.
And remember it while reading later in this blog.
It's relevant possibly to this coming hurricane season.



Yes as a child I saw hail like that in the picture above.
The hail covered the whole school yard and turned it white!
It was as close as I got for many years to real snow.
More dangerous than snow as it falls hard not softly.

What's your favorite weather to follow?



I love when meteorologists share why they love weather.
How it began and with what kind of weather.

My family owned property on Anna Maria Island back in the 1920s when they were promoting it and Holmes Beach during the Real Estate Boom of the Roaring 20s. Love of weather is in the genes it seems as I heard my Great Great Grandfather loved to watch the thunderstorms form out on Tampa Bay from his front porch. Beautiful spit of land it is but if another Tampa Bay Hurricane like the 1921 hurricane comes through it would do tremendous damage on the scale of Hurricane Michael to that beautiful sliver of beach in what looks like a tropical paradise.

Okay so I'm a hurricane person.
Love snow, thunderstorms and hail.
But hurricane is where it's at for me.
Born and bred in Miami.
My father went to University of Miami...
...home of the Hurricanes.
Nuff said.

So let's talk Hurricane Season 2019.

This is a very good graphic below of the current state of the oceans on Planet Earth. Remembering that things change and evolve over time so what is cool now will warm up in August and September to some degree as we saw last year after the media hooplah over a good observation made on how the MDR was cool this time of year and that could help us have an easier hurricane season months later. The problem in America (where most of us live) is it's not about where they form but where they make landfall. When the Gulf of Mexico or the water close in along the East Coast is bubbly a weak storm can intensify rapidly as it is moves towards landfall. The 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane, Michael, Katrina and Andrew are prime examples of storms that intensified in our part of the world not out in the MDR where many that do intensify fast and then turn into Fish Storms swimming up into the MDR bothering no one... heard from never more.



So my concern with this map is obviously #2 and that is something to think on more than El Ninos far out in the ocean or cool pools of water on the other side of the globe. But as I love maps I do love to watch weather everywhere and our atmospheric patterns connect so I'm always watching the water vapor loop or some such loop watching it all evolve.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Great progression of weather systems.
Yesterday's hail storm is gone moving Eastbound.
Another system may form and hug the coast.
Maybe.



I know this because Cranky said so.
And Dabuh has been pointing it out.
And, I'm watching the models and the loops.
Maybe.

Patterns repeat.
If this pattern persists we could have Subtropicals form close in.
Or Tropical Storms forming close in...
Whenever I think on 2012 I always remember 


Alberto and Beryl.
Media was filled with "early season development....
...does not mean a busy season"
They were wrong.

After Alberto and Beryl I remember Sandy.
It was a busy season.
Never judge a hurricane season....
.... until it's in the rear view mirror.


Divide the image of the 2012 Hurricane Season in half.
The systems that formed close in and made landfall.
And the ones that formed in the MDR.
Yes two made it to landfall.
The rest swam out to sea.
But it was a dangerous season for this part of the tropics.


Something to think on as we move towards June 1st.
Or storms that form before the start of the Hurricane Season.
The end is often concealed in the beginning.
But we don't see that until we look back.
2012 started early.....
.... and ended late.

If you aren't into baseball you might want to read a book.
Great book by one of the earliest, best ecologists around.
Back at the turn of the century... the last one.
Ralph Munroe built sailboats.
He built the first real home in Coconut Grove.
He recorded weather events in his journals.
He knew Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay well.
He sailed everywhere....
...he told them not to build the Overseas Railroad the way they did.
He told them it would be catastrophic in a hurricane.
It's a great read, you can get lost for days in that book.
I know because I do often as I own it.
It's on my top shelf where my favorite books are kept.



https://www.amazon.com/Commodores-Story-Ralph-Middleton-Munroe/dp/0935761004

Have a great day and hope things evolve for you today the way you want them to.... 

Besos BobbiStorm 
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter ... follow me there for real time updates.

Ps.... nice song stuck in my head now .. I'm not really a Joni Mitchell person. I'm more a Melanie and Judy Collins type from that era though currently love Maren Morris ;) but  she understood seasons and lyrics and words and music so posting the song. Her voice is too high for me. Love the lyrics.


yes the seasons they go round and round.... 
baseball season gives fans something to do...
and chasers chase tornadoes on the Plains
soon the Hurricane Season appears in view.













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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:17 AM 20 comments