Waiting on Tornado Season... Winter Leaving Slowly... Hurricane Season 34 Days Away. Ever Try to Understand Storm Chasers?

It's that time of year when we switch over from worrying on winter storms to wondering where the Spring storms are and when the Hurricane Season will really get going. Many are calling for an active early part of the Hurricane Season that being June/July/August with the possibility of a May named storm forming. You can see from the loop above that "cold fronts" are still moving down towards South Florida.  Severe weather for now is not showing it's face across the US in any real way. 

Note winter has for the most part departed.

TWC has almost sounded apologetic of late regarding the lack of tornado chasing coverage. That may change in the next week or so but for now there has been a curious lack of tornadoes to talk about. In the realm of time everything has it's season. Baseball begins, then we watch our storm chaser friends chase tornadoes, then as the NFL Draft gets underway we count down the days until the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. There are 34 days to go; I know there are 34 days to go because my friend who has a count down going told me so.  To everything there is a season and I'm sure at some point we will be watching those storms clashing on the plains somewhere as one unmovable force meets another and the winds begin to spin up into Twisters. It's just a matter of time....

Also it's just a matter of time that people will need hurricane supplies on hand. Should you have a jar of Jerusalem Artichoke Relish someone gave you that you can't figure out what to do with... hold onto it because it will spice up your hurricane picnic as you eat the remains of what was in the fridge once the power is out come September...  Personally I stock up on cans of premade Cuban Coffee for my caffeine addiction in case the power goes out. To each his own.

And know that when the weather is quiet in one part of the world it is often raging somewhere else. In Israel this past week friends who made Aliyah from Miami were posting one video after another of what looked like Miami May Monsoons. Thunder, lightning and flash flooding both in the city and out in the Negev in areas that are known for flash flooding. People died, dams collapsed, rivers ran wild and weather doesn't pay attention to politics when it comes to who lives or who dies. Weather is an equal opportunity provider of tragedy. 

My suggestion to you is to assess your needs be it Severe Weather, Tornadoes or Hurricanes and stock up on what you can to help you survive. And, as always stay in top of late breaking weather be it an App or the old school weather radio or even asking Alexa. As for me I'm addicted to Mikes Weather Page and www.spaghettimodels.com. 

And, if you are finding yourself missing tornado coverage you may want to read a good book that explains how the mind of a storm chaser or meteorologist works. The how and why and just when it happens that a person falls in love passionately and obsessively with some form of weather. Whether you are obsessed with hurricanes or hail or tornadoes the process is the same in the way you fall in love and begin to follow the weather even if it means chasing the weather as some of us have done. Spoiler Alert once you do it .... you may be hooked for a life time and you may indeed also become hooked on weather. 

https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Caught-Storm-Legendary/dp/1476796092

I read the book on my way to Seattle and I have to tell you it was my fastest trip to Seattle ever. Time which seems to hang still on a long set of flights unless you are the type to fall asleep and I am not.... moved fast the way an approaching line of storms roll across the Plains or the way a squall in the outer bands of a strong hurricane races across a city warning people it's time to hurry up and finish preparations because the hurricane is almost here. It's a good read. I'd recommend it personally to a psychologist as it is as much about how the human brain works as it is about barometric pressure and dry lines and humidity. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I didn't know Tim Samaras but I knew of him from his friends and his incredible pictures and impressive life work. I watched the funeral and pondered on how one minute you're wishing Carl Young happy birthday and suddenly he along with Tim and his son were gone with the wind. That's true. And, we've all wondered when someone would actually die in a storm that they were chasing while standing at the beach on rocks with the wind ripping at you trying to see in the middle of a strong squall. We've been lucky or maybe that was just dumb luck hard to say. I will say that a life lived fully and shared with people who you enjoy being with is.... well a life well lived.

TD4 & The Next Invest Waiting in the Wings. Where Does the Moisture from TDr4 Go ? Model Discussion & Tropical Thoughts

The long steamer coming off TD4 tells a story.

The polka dotted area behind it is SAL.

Saharan Dust.

Since the shear didn't kill it...

..SAL came back for one more try.

There's enough of a circulation left...

...to see how SAL gets into TD4 

Very close to losing it's circulation.

Up close look at TD4 

Odd looking system.

The 5 AM discussion called be small and tenacious.

I've been calling it that since it left Africa.

And, it's still hanging on as the song goes.

Looks as if it wants to be a butterfly.

Merge with the moisture NE of it...

Is that odd or what??

No you're not seeing double..

A wider look at this ballet in the Atlantic.

See I don't make this stuff up...

...it's how my brain works.

Okay a little heads up here I'm a bit under the weather and my mind is obsessing more than normal on the hurricane season as a whole vs one particular wave or tropical depression about to take it's last bow. We are in search of the D storm in early July and so far these storms have been thankfully weak, however as the water temperatures get hotter and climatology kicks in a bit early this year we will have strong hurricanes to deal with at some point. And, where they go and the patterns that are being set up now are not a joking matter. So please read my previous post and follow the advice of those links showing you how to keep you, your loved ones and whatever pets you may have squirreled away in your house. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

The cone remains the same.

The cone has been the same for a while.

Discussion at 5 AM was good.

The 11 AM package was weak.

I get it... everyone wants to move on.

IF the NHC thought this would intensify it would be different.

The moisture from TD4 may end up over Florida.

Maybe... it's forecast to be just rain.

Models mostly show it falling apart.

Unraveling from too much spinning.

What was it thinking running around with SAL?

IF anything changes I'll be back with updates in TD4

TD4 is being blasted with SAL (dry air)

If it can escape the SAL could it come back down the road?

Easy to laugh that off but of late we have seen that often.

Weak entities fall apart and oddly come back.

Dorian comes to mind but that was a stronger storm.

Small storms like TD4 are especially quirky.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Dorian

I bring Dorian up as the last few years have seen a number of storms look good, have great early model forecasts and then they literally bit the dust. However, before staying dead they popped back to life briefly sometimes continuing on and sometimes dying again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bonnie_(2016) Bonnie is another weak tropical storm that fell apart, was declassified and came back to life.

Not to be topped by Julia that was tracked as a wave that couldn't come together until it marched up I95 and was named overland for a new record of sorts.  Originally there was much interest in the wave that came to be known as Julia and then it fell apart. And, then it came back to life over land a perfect example of the Brown Ocean Effect feeding off of swampland and low lands in it's track across parts of Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Julia_(2016)

Why I bring this up (other than the usual keep watching TD4 until there's no rain there left) is that often storms later in the season follow a similar track but are stronger and once forming they don't look back. They also don't loop back even when the NHC says they will and I'm talking about Matthew that affected the same hotels in Daytona that Julia visited earlier in the same season. Patterns exist and patterns need to be watched.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew

Nuff said on Tropical Depression #4 though I'll post a song and a few good posts from Twitter.

A generation thought it was "Hang on Snoopy" . . .

Now going to post some Tweets regarding the new Invest.

The next wave the models are all Ga Ga about.

Remember please the models originally loved Invest 94L

Early models showed landfall near or around FL and NC.

And yet that didn't happen.

SO don't put too much faith in early models.

Because if we believe models...

... then we believe TD4 was forecast to survive.

Wise man say only fools rush in...

But we still love the models...

...even though they been burning us lately.

Oh look another wave develops!!

Another African Wave gets a heartbeat...

Some models show an eye trying to form!

Headed towards the Caribbean.

More Bret like in track.

Possible.

High builds back in.......

And as always the GFS tries to destroy South Florida.

Was it something we said or did?

What is the GFS fascination for showing Florida landfalls?

Other models show it going into the Caribbean.

But no not the GFS.. 

Jim Cantore gives his thoughts.

And his thoughts are very valuable.

GFS says yes.

EURO says no... not really.

There's actually two waves to watch.

One comes off high.

One came off low.

Both have to deal with SAL.

So you know that way that goes.

However MJO . . . 

...is forecast to say hello!!

I say high.. you say low.

You say hello hello.. 

Meet Mister SAL.

Unless of course if it stays low and avoids SAL like Bret did.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html loop the link 

And that's the way it goes in the tropics today.

Time for me to take my temperature again.
It's high for me but also low.

Not at the 100 degree mark yet ;)

Please read and take seriously the link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

And you can follow all the models at Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Gluten Free Pasta.. 

NO Calories 

:)

Keep watching... I know everyone wants something more exciting to track .. and yet no one wants to see anyone get hurt but after Cindy and TD4 storm trackers be like "Please make me a real storm to chase.... I don't want easy I want crazy!!!!"

Keep tracking, keep chasing and keep checking back here often...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbiStorm on Twitter - where you can get way faster updates and talk tropics with me ;)

Ps Leaving this here for the GFS that really wants to do Miami ... maybe someday.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/miami-hurricane-history-learn-from.html

READ LEARN MAKE A PLAN FOR HURRICANE SEASON!