Updated!! Invest 93L Forms in the Carib w 50/50 Chances of Development. Where Would It Go?

8 PM

No new changes.

Still even odds something develops...

...or doesn't get a name.

Hate to say:

"Time will tell..."

But.... Time will tell!

Loop:

Compare and contrast...

See... no difference this evening.

Invest 93L is very close to the coast which is bad for the small towns and villages along the coast (and inland) and good for people in America that want to see the season die with Ophelia's controversial death over Ireland... downgraded just before she was about to walk onstage... Alas.....

In reality conditions are not that bad if and when 93L lifts away from the coast. The water is warmer, shear is low and conditions are forecast to favor development. The image belows shows the heat of the water that 93L will be moving over ... if it moves away from Central America and it should. 

Note the flow on the water vapor loop.

Sucking up tropical moisture.

In theory 93L slides in between two fronts.

Rides the rim of the front up into the Atlantic.

Maybe.

Again the some models show it going South.

Or lingering about.

Most models pull it up into the NW Carib.

And... out to sea.

Some models show moisture moving up towards NE.

Moisture not a closed eye.

Stay tuned...

Going to put up 3 Tweets here.

1 is obviously about weather this week.

2.... is about history and Wilma

3....who doesn't love the Northern Lights?

He shows the possibilities.

He explains the logic.

Wilma...

Truly a bucket list item for many.

I didn't say "bucket list" :( 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I did go shopping but I didn't buy boots. I got a new bra from Victoria's Secrets and Jo Malone brought back the perfume I liked last October that was sold out by the time I decided to buy it... when God gives you a second chance on something you love you grab it! The saleslady threw in a full size lotion of Candy by Prada  and some small sample Candy sprays to take to Florida with me next trip. Okay I said it was my "signature scent" but she was so sweet. Like the way Candy smells ;) Nice day... out and about seeing some Fall color and cooler temperatures as the blue skies peaked through and the clouds from the last night's frontal passage pushed out to sea.  And that's just the way I rolled today. A somewhat more productive day than Invest 93L had while it plays peek a boo down in the Caribbean.

Bonus view of the flow that 93L is currently hiding in.. embedded in... I see where the moisture is going, the question remains will it get a name. What is in a name? Ophelia could write a book on that question. 

We now have Invest 93L in the Caribbean with a 50/50 chance of developing. Odds are funny in that how they are perceived are different according to what you are discussing. To some 50/50 chances of tropical development mean this will most likely get a named. To other people 50/50 means "meh" and "not gonna happen just your typical Caribbean Gyre dance going on down there. Imagine if someone told you that you had a 50/50 chance of winning the Lotto on any given day... How much money would you bet on that lotto with 50/50 chances I wonder?

In New York this may not seem like a cold front but in Miami people are paying close attention and adding layers they can take off later today when it warms up again. Today most people in the Southeast are talking about the cold front or depending how far South you live the "cool front" and it's big news. Again when the dew points drop everyone is happier in Florida so it's a mute point in South Florida just how cold it is going to get. A reinforcing cold front down the road helps everyone's mood as well. It may top out in the high 70s today in Miami, but this evening girls will be dressing up in their favorite boots with short skirts and tee shirts... possibly a sweater. The shorts, boots and sweat shirt look will be popular for the next few days as Miamians sniff cooler weather fumes. It's a great respite from a long hot summer that featured very tropical weather to see the fronds swaying and feeling like Mother Nature air conditioned the out doors for a night or two. In Green Bay that would seem like Indian Summer weather and everyone would be ripping off their warmer clothes trying to sneak in one more round of shorts and flip flops.  And like the lottery it's all a matter of perspective if you see 70 degrees as cooler weather or warm Autumn nights.

That's snow up there where it belongs.

Near Canada. 

Looks like half a heart.

A thin but noticeable front exists.

Another view below.

That's one massive low up there by the Great Lakes.

So let's go back to the tropics and 93L.

Below is a map of gas stations still open for 93L.

Should Philippe form....

...the red areas are where he gets his fuel.

Models... early models say this about that.

As I said the other day the models have been inconsistent. And, when they are inconsistent I look to see what they ARE consistent on ... what they agree on vs what they do not. The models show that something down there is going to form. And, whether it becomes Philippe and it begins to move towards Cuba and Florida caught up by the next cold front or a lingering tropical disturbance near the Central America there is one consistency and that is more, tropical weather for Central America. DaBuh shows that below and his concerns. We worry on a named Tropical Storm in South Florida, yet days of tropical rain could produce life threatening mud slides and flash floods whether or not a name is given to this area of tropical convection.  Perspective rears it's ugly head again..

The front that passed through Raleigh last night was nice.

Strong rain after a windy night and a light show.

Not much severe weather in RDU Land.

Down in Hickory it produced tornado conditions.

I'll update this blog later today as the various model runs come in showing possible tracks for a possible Tropical Storm Philippe.  We aren't expecting Wilma like development, yet it's worth reminding people that Wilma was forming today in history. Different storm, different year but the consistent part of the discussion is it rode a cold front North into Florida. If one hurricane could win an award for the "Best After the Hurricane Passed Named Storm" Wilma would beat out Andrew any day. After Andrew we suffered through hot, airless days in the 90s with no AC, no electricity, no water and not a breeze in sight. Miami kids love a breeze, we expect it as it's always a constant down near Biscayne Bay but not after Andrew. However, after Wilma caught that front the front pushed through and we sat outside under a blanket of a million stars in total darkness with cool breezes BBQing everything that was defrosting in the freezer and feeding the rest of the hood or anyone who wanted to sit around the campfire and enjoy some fresh air.  October often shows us fronts and hurricanes doing their Autumnal Dance and that's a given IF something really forms and IF the timing is just right. 

So really this is about timing.

Like everything in life.

IF Philippe forms...

...if the next front pushes through.

IF the timing is just right for them to connect.

Otherwise we could have a different story.

A story with a different perspective.

Note the image above.

It' looks like the Loch Ness Monster went South after Ophelia. 

A plume of tropical moisture from Africa to the Caribbean.

Pushing up into the Atlantic.

Anyone ever heard of the Sargasso Sea?

Gyres... sea serpents and legends.

93L doesn't look like much today.

At first glance.

Watch the loop a bit.

Something is beginning to begin.

I'll be back later with an update when we have better models and a clear cut look at just what could happen in the not so distant future. Honestly we aren't expecting anything to form today or tomorrow but the chances have now reached the 2 day page the NHC puts up and they continue to go up for the 5 day. And, as the loop above shows we know have a floater up over the area. Is this the last chance for tropical action of the named kind this season? I don't think so... I can see us getting to the R name just as easily as the tropics remain active and the parade of frontal boundaries only stirs the pot a bit more.

Personally I need a new pair of boots.

I'm talking a pair of boots I love!

Next trip to Florida I'm leaving my summer clothes there :)

Things are changing.

We aren't looking for a Cat 5 in the Atlantic.

Or even a Cat 4 in the Atlantic.

But we could see moisture moving Westbound...

..into more favorable areas.

And we also see fronts dipping down...

....then dying out.

So stay on top of the weather always...

...and have a beautiful day!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps... for my Grandma Mary... there was really something about her and her memory lives on and on especially the music she loved to play on her piano. It's all a matter of perspective... this morning it feels a lot cooler in Raleigh than it did on Sunday at the State Fair.