Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, April 13, 2020

Severe Weather Day... It Left NC for VA and Maryland and NYC.. High Wind Warnings. What Did We Learn? Where and How are We Going to Deal with Hurricane Season and the Need for Hurricane Shelters During the Year of Covid-19?



19 people have died from the spate of Tornadoes that raced through the South over the last 24 hours and the number of dead is most likely going to climb as the system races on towards the Mid Atlantic carrying with it the threat of wind damage, power outages and possible tornadoes.

Southern Storms be moving North and colliding with another piece of energy and this is just an endless stream of disasters from pandemics to Mother Nature doing her ugliest to add pain onto an already painful mess.




In Raleigh, despite numerous warnings with higher expectations, we mostly had an hour or two of high wind though some are without power and others did lose trees that crashed into their homes or luckily missed them by a few feet. Weather here is random like that. One neighborhood sees nothing and another is filled with the sound of buzz saws after the storm has gone as people remove trees that block streets or worse. We have tall pines that do come crashing down in Raleigh in my area, but closer to downtown the City of Oaks ... well has Oaks, huge Oaks with huge limbs that easily slice their way through people's homes. It doesn't take a hurricane to bring down a huge limb onto someone's home.



This small tree landed next to a friend's house.
Hillsborough. NC.
They felt very blessed as their area was hit hard.
Harder than Raleigh.

There's a bit of elevation there near the Eno River.
Durham and Hillsborough tend to get stronger weather.
Raleigh usually gets "lucky" and it misses us.
But you can never say never.
Hurricane Hazel found her way this far inland.
So did Hurricane Fran.
And we have had F3 Tornadoes in the dark of the night.
So happy we have power and the pines didn't topple.

There's a home in Raleigh where a woman is trapped ...
...in her house as tree blocked the entrance.

https://www.wral.com/women-trapped-in-raleigh-home-when-tree-falls-on-roof/19053997/




Things that don't seem normal are normal in 2020.
Reporters in the field wearing masks.
Smart. Good Idea.

I tried it while out and about earlier.
I don't like masks. I have asthma.
I am at high risk so wore the mask.


My husband prays at home.
The Temple is closed.
Pines danced and swayed all morning.
A line of squalls raced through the area.
2020 continues on...
It's still Passover for me.
Gov Cuomo is back on giving a Press Conference.
Life goes on.

In New York where my kids live...
... they have high wind warnings.


I spend a lot of time on Instagram.
When my daughter goes live.
The kids are learning to ride a bike..


Laughed for a good while.
It was good to laugh :)
He made a wrong turn...
...right into the bushes :(

He's fine.
His older cousin is riding without training wheels.


And that's true. 
That's life.
When we fall, we get back up!
Life goes on...


"We can control the spread"
Cuomo is right on that.
That's also true.
So it's up to you... 
...and what you do or don't do!

What we do matters.
Our actions can have positive results.
Vs positive test results.
Stay home.
Social distance offline.
Talk online.
We need to do what we got to do...

My biggest concern is hurricane season.
Obviously my mind goes there.
It's 49 days away.
And it can and may start early this year.

How are we going to evacuate Nola or Miami?
Or Mobile or Myrtle Beach?
Where do people go who are sheltering at home?
What do they do when they lose their homes?
It happened this week.
It was a small localized area.

A good Tweet that's been shared everywhere.
People in a shelter hiding from the storm.
Risking germs and trying to distance themselves.
What will we do for the Hurricane Season???
If this Covid-19 remains...
Or peaks again during the summer?

Hope all the Mayors...
...and all the Governors..
And the President ...
...are working on that one.



Had the Mayor of Nola cancelled Mardi Gras..
 not a popular decision but could have been done.
New Orleans would have way less Covid-19.
Her city, her call I believe.
The buck stopped on her desk.
But everyone wants to pass the buck on...

What will Nola and Miami do?
What will NYC or Wilmington do?

Hate to go there but it's getting close.
We must consider that with the Hurricane Season coming!


Note the reporters now sit far apart ...
...at press conferences.


Something to think on.
We need an answer.
We need a plan.
And we need it NOW.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.






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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:13 AM 0 comments

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Barry Raining Itself Out... NYC Lights Come Back On.... Heat Wave City This Week in the USA.


The rains from Barry.....
... as High Pressure and Hot Weather take control of the Country.


Windy gets better and better.
So many incredible sites online.

Let's get Barry over with....
Yes 11.5 Million as per TWC under Flood Alerts.
Hopefully this doesn't get worse.
So far so good.
So far as lucky as we thought we'd be.
As we prayed it would be....


Barry will get downgraded soon.
Remnant Low will be it's future name.
The flood threat remains.
And those tornadoes I told you about....
..that threat ramps up as he moves inland.

But for now Barry is the only official game in town.


Nice waves out in the Atlantic.

If they were not strong waves...........
...they would not be there.
They would have been squashed by the High.
Blown apart by shear.
But they are still there.
Weak but they have a pulse.
No model support tho...


Speaking of coming out of darkness.... 

If you have ever lived in NYC and I have....
...you know this is an amazing picture.
Seen in everywhere but haven't seen who caught the moment.


The canyons of Manhattan...
Illusions of life and lights and motion.
Suddenly grinds to a halt.
The lights go out.
Life goes on in the dark.


The best of NYC was on display last night.
Despite the lack of lights.

The lights came back on .....





What more can you say?

Having that sort of Sunday Morning.
I have hot coffee... but want cold coffee.
This is easy to solve....
Can't decide if I want Avocado Toast or...
...eggs and grits.
Common problem for me.........
Trying to navigate my travel schedule.
Also common problem for me.
Need to pack... but not yet.
Maybe buy a new bathing suit?

It's very very very very hot.
I remember saying that in 1989.
It got cooler when I hit Santa Cruz on that trip.
Santa Cruz not on my dance card.
Maybe Seattle in the Fall.
Haven't seen Autumn colors there yet.

Watched my daughter dance on Instagram.
Best friend's big family party.
South Beach :)
No you can't see those pictures ....
Censored ;)

It's hot and soon the flip will be switched.
We are doing our usual August heat wave in July.
In a month of so we will have Atlantic Hurricanes.
Maybe 3 weeks... 
10 days til teasing Invests in the tropics there.
More Homegrown popping up?
Who really knows.

So dance on....
... have a good Sunday.

Not gonna rant on 3 hour Barry.
Barry not worth it.
Weather IS the issue.
Flooding and tornado threat persist.
So pay attention if you are in the warned area.

As for Barry.
One of the more memorable videos around.


Note this was Dauphin Island not in New Orleans

Having lived in Miami, LA an NYC I wonder.
Was this an accident?
Someone overslept?
Hoping to write off the car for insurance.
(sorry but I've seen some odd things)
Please forgive me.....

End result.
Car there but buried in the sand.


As for people complaining that we take pictures of flooding...



Nothing new about that.
Don't blame it on social media.
It's just way easier now......
It's been happening since we all wanted our Kodak moment ;)



And much more up close and personal.
Jay Barnes. Awesome books.
Words, data, facts, images.
Images caught by people witnessing history.
Saving hurricane history moments forever in time.
Nothing new there.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Lots of weather, food and life pictures there.


https://www.instagram.com/bobbistorm/



Ps.......In my world in North Carolina it's gonna be hot, real hot.
Going out early before it's too hot to eat Avocado Toast ;)




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:02 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

OH MY GOODNESS.... WINTER GOING TO COME BACK !!! Happy MLK Day on the Real Day Not the Weekend.



This basically began yesterday in ernest.
Headlines on Twitter showing SNOW and ICY weather coming!


The Polar Vortex is being unleashed!!
Yeah........ Winter is back!
My AC is off and my heat is back on!!
The beach a week ago was nice........
.... I didn't go outside today in Raleigh. Brrr...

Tonight's blog is a prelude to real discussion.
I want to show a variety of news and tweets.
The real news today was in California...
Dabuh knew that!
If there's a beach he's watching the surf.
And the weather.... he's a great weather watcher!


Prayers indeed as you will see deeper down in the blog.

Weather is locational and whether you live in Maine or Miami you have different priorities with regard to what you wish for......  and in this case be careful what you wish for....   Note the REAL storm is going on NOW in California but the East Coast, as always, thinks this is all about them and whether NYC or Boston gets Snow. The South looks longingly at the snow models wishing the system would take the more Southern track so that we could see some snow flakes falling and dusting our Carolina Pines. There is a middle part of the country, though to be fair they got the last snow storm AND Jim Cantore so they have plenty of stories to tell of the Winter of 2019!


I gotta warn you there's a lot of hype going on right now, because that's all we have is hype and models and watching the satellite loops. Speaking of models the Canadian is really on to something or just being the Canadian over amping every system and bringing snow to Cuba. It's worth noting it DID snow in Cuba in 1857 so I suppose it's not impossible. The EURO and the GFS (choose your version of it) do not show snow for Havana or Miami so you can breathe a bit and get out your favorite boots for weather diving down for one night into the 40s!

And the usual mets are having fun with this because to be honest we had one wild winter storm in November, a January thaw in December and now in January winter is showing up again on the models. And it seems this one will really do the trick and usher in some Arctic Air down into the US all the way down to .... Key West and do NOT laugh as Key West is an island in the middle of the Florida Straits and when a cold front breezes in across the water it gets down right chilly!


Yoda knows.... 

In truth though California IS having WEATHER NOW!
Yet you wouldn't know it from my feed ....
...that is heavily weighted to the Hurricane cities & Seattle.

There's a Blizzard warning up for the Sierras!


California is like the song....
I've lived there....
First comes fire and then the rain comes....
...and the mud runs down the hills.
It's one disaster after another... 


In Santa Barbara there was crazy wind damage. 


High Surf Warnings up the coast of California.


If you live in LA.........
........don't let your garbage cans float away!


But on the East Coast everyone is ready!!!
North Carolina and Virginia are waiting... 
NC won the November storm lotto...
VA stole last week's storm.
What will be with this next storm?



Allan Huffman is as reliable as it gets.
He's watching the models and we are listening.



In my mind it's going to Carolina......


No it's not really going to Carolina, not this week's storm.
But I'm driving North for the cold, frigid week down the road.
So I know I'll see snow one way or the other soon...

You heard about the 10 year challenge on Facebook?
30 years plus and James Taylor is still singing.
My best friend loves him.
Took me a long time to enjoy him again.
I can finally listen and smile.

What do you love?
Who do you love?
You love snow or hate it?
Doesn't matter.... 
...you get what you get.
Mother Nature's in charge of this one.
I know... Polar Vortex (rolling eyes)


Yah we have all these great terms these days....
........to describe Winter.


Love reading Cranky's BLOG.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011519.htm

Note there is a 2 part harmony here going on.
The storm THIS week........
.... the BIG storm next week!
Cranky likes to Tweet.
He loves to Blog.... 
Read his blog and then read it twice.


I know you want to know if Philly is gonna get snow.
SMH.......

Definite maybe.


Everyone's chasing after snow......


Or complaining about shoveling it!

And everyone who is Tweeting is ......
.....updating every few hours.
As models come and models go.
Soon we will really know.
Compare the below tweet with the above one.


A man of few words has this to say on the cold.



A man of many words and great wisdom is Larry Cosgrove.
You really need to follow him!

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?ref=br_rs





Yes Weather Twitter is a buzz and buzzing louder than transformers or swarms of freezing bees. What do I think? What do I know? When you have a period of warm weather deep in December you have to know that winter is going to come back with a vengeance. It's like during hurricane season when it's slow and early waves give it up to Saharan Dust and Shear at the Gateway of the Caribbean and you think there won't be any hurricanes and then Mother Nature is back with a bite and Twitter begins buzzing with innuendo and rumors and people act as if the world is coming to an end and on air news people say things like "unprecedented Arctic Invasion as the Polar Vortex is blasting it's way down into Florida" and you worry Aquaman is going to freeze and Lex Luthor finally discovered a weather machine that will control Earth's weather and then you remember Spring will come again. Kids enjoy the snow, parents shiver and shovel the snow and someone gets sleet which is about as annoying as rainy days and Mondays. 

 So as for me I'm going to enjoy whatever we get this week and wonder on what weather I'll see in New York City next week as I'm scheduled to be there then. There's highs and lows near zero if the extremists are right and if it moderates in the teens... time will tell.

 As for tonight, enjoy this song and know I love it...... really as much as the oldie goldies are great this song is perfect and note .... he uses weather because how can you show a love song without some kind of weather??

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Don't say I didn't blog and as always I hoping you get the weather you dream about!

I'll be back with real hard data on what to expect from the storm after this storm and how frigid the temperature will be and just how low that freeze line will go. I suggest you familiarize yourself with the winter links on Mike's fantastic www.spaghettimodels.com as he's a guy for all seasons ;)


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:00 PM 0 comments

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Phillipe Moving Away From Florida. New Area of Interest in Atlantic. Winter Storm AKA October Gale Messes Up TRAVEL Across NE NYC Many Cities. Check With Your Airlines if Traveling.

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11 AM Sunday.
TS Philippe.


"best it has ever has"


Tropical Discussion a bit poetic this morning.

Where's it going?




Cone for TS Philippe
As it sails away.............


Reminds me of a song........


Please keep reading if you have not.
And if you have... well Thank You!
Have a wonderful day...

* * *

8 AM


Two meteorologists are on the set of TWC. The guy points to an area of convection East of Florida not as strong as the larger area of convection closer to Cuba and says "I think this is the area of low pressure that they are tracking this morning...." the female meteorologist next to him has her hands folded and she's nodding in apparent agreement. Both look totally disgusted and  are working hard to try and sound deeply concerned and serious yet there is a touch of sarcasm in his voice.


The truth is the models did show this solution several days ago. A low formed that was broad, then it tightened up closer to Key West and sort of "moved" towards Bimini and then suddenly it disappeared and reappeared up further along the coast near North Florida and the wind gradient tightened up again off the Outer Banks. It wasn't a pretty model as it seemed to miss a few frames and moved around in a Slim Shady sort of way as if it was playing Trick or Treat with meteorologists. Now you see me... now you don't and not a totally clear cut tropical cyclone, yet multiple centers moving around within a larger gyre containing strong Tropical Storm winds...here and there and everywhere.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

There he goes....
ENE.... 
Cold Front Dives Down
(look at that cold air in GOM)
Moisture down by Cuba remains.
Philippe...
Here today, everywhere yesterday.
I see a Post Tropical Cyclone Philippe coming.
Tropical Depression Philippe?

A post from Mike's Facebook last night.



Indeed. It's not that hard ... in 2017 it's important.
We have more transparency and honesty is needed.


Once the NHC gets another permanent director who hopefully stays for a while... they need to sit down and have a long Pow Wow and figure out this idea of Potential Tropical Cyclone and Post Tropical Cyclone and set up a way with dealing with scenarios such as this as they are now forecasting Pre Storm Status. It's a good idea if a hurricane is going to form just off shore Alabama headed towards the coast within 12 hours and not such a great idea to name a PTC18 and then feel pressured to put up a name and advisories on a system that never would have been named ten or fifteen years ago before the ever changing rules.  Note when you say "potential" it carries the possibility it won't happen so you're forecast for potential does not have to verify. Old terminology for this was a "tropical disturbance". 


Wind History of TS Philippe Below.



Recently for example we had a "center" they were tracking SW of the Florida Keys...then they found one SW of Key West that continued North (not NE) and then NNE and now ENE (never wanted to do the NE movement) and made it's way across South Florida without officially ever having a "landfall" because basically it pole vaulted over land or never really had a true center to find the point of landfall? You can't make this up....

And, yet........this is a true October Tropical Disturbance merging with a Cold Front during a time of weather transition perfectly in tune with Climatology. 

I wrote this last night in an update to yesterday's blog and I'm putting it here again as it's as basic as it gets.  Why they cannot do this I don't know. I get the need to be accountable with meteorological lingo and try to validate the previous forecast so that it verifies but in the end it leaves the "general public" with a lack of faith in what they are trying to do... that being "warn the public of approaching tropical weather and it's inherent dangers" and it should be in language they understand.


What's more interesting is the topic of "landfall"
Did it or didn't it?
Only the NHC knows...

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

As if Philippe was a broad Tornadic Tropical Gyre (new term I made it up) and it started off offshore Key West, crossed South Florida and never made "landfall" and you can see this in the loop above. The strong convection that did not have an actual center did stay down over Cuba where their original cone showed Philippe being. A small vortex (additional "center") popped up near Fantasy Fest near Key West, cross the state yet never made landfall. If a tree falls in the forest and there is no one there did it make a sound? It should be interesting to see if they downgrade this in Post Season Analysis. 

Now what you are wondering? I see a downgrade very soon and the NWS is going to have to figure this one out fast as it has the ability to mess up a lot of NFL Football games and make a mess if the weather itself stays close to the coast. In Raleigh it's foggy this morning and warm enough that I didn't even need a jacket despite being officially 61 degrees when I woke up. I went outside, took some pictures of the fog and came inside and nudged the thermostat so that the AC would come on long enough to make the place feel better. Then I opened the sliding glass door outside to let whatever "cool air" is out there inside. October is a nowhere place to be sometimes when it comes to weather prediction. Better to play with pumpkins and dress up in costume popping candy corn in your mouth and debating whether to chew them or let them melt slowly than to try and pin down a tropical system or a cold front this time of year. It's an odd time of year. No one would drink Pumpkin Spice Latte most any other time of year, but in October ... anything goes.

In a world where we can do the most amazing computer graphics showing multiple ideas easily it's hard for 2 dimensional graphics to catch our attention or truly show us everything in one picture. In a world where I "talk" to my younger kids on Snapchat mostly  just using pictures as we convey what we are up to and what we think the other one will think is interesting... we can do so much better than most government agencies do as they are tied down in lots of red tape. And, that's why I get most of my best information online from friends who I trust. These graphics below explain the story of what will evolve and happen easily. All the characters are on the map and the arrows show the plot development. The image below is shown over the radar image.... in 2017 it's easy to do this and private meteorologists do and they do a great job. 



The images below show what Philippe did in South Florida.



Tropical Crime Scene... indeed.


The tropical system known as Philippe did cause damage from multiple possible tornadoes across South Florida.  Heavy rain in some areas and extreme happiness over the cold front pushing down providing cool relief to what was an extremely hot, long summer. Tonight it's forecast to be 55 degrees in South Florida.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/article181495751.html



Have I mentioned Travel Delays?
From the JetBlue site

https://www2.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx?intcmp=global_travelalert




Boston is watching ...
Remnants of Philippe and the Cold Front.


Merging together into one heck of a Winter Storm.
Winter Storm in October.
So maybe call it an October Gale ;)


Politically correct Fall Colors Shown Below..


NE expecting storm conditions.
NYC expecting something....


Portland Maine further up the coast.
Weather only Stephen King could love.


Winter moving in before Halloween.
Going to be an interesting winter.
You can quote me on that!

I'll update later.

Oh wait.......
There's an area in the Atlantic.
Orange like a pumpkin...



A  meandering Low.
The plot thickens...
Non-tropical... moving away.
"We see it... but just ignore it"
Keep watching.

To be honest I saw this scenario coming but it's hard to explain what you know without explaining it in proper terms and correlate that with models that were offering different solutions. And, in truth I knew this was going to play out like this.... a messy October "kind of a tropical storm" yet mostly a "tropical disturbance" that was going to ride the Florida Keys with wind displaced from the stronger rain and then merge with the Cold Front... 

October 23rd.
In discussion on Twitter.


No one wants to tell the Lower Keys they may get tropical weather.
So the NHC didn't....they made Craig Key famous.
S Florida was told to watch carefully.
Tornado Warnings by the NWS
Nuff said... let's move on.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps...today's agenda calls for some shopping, planning, watching football and listening to some Country Music.















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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:28 AM 0 comments