UPDATED 8 PM . 70% African Wave - Invest 96L Models ---- Wednesday and the Tropics. 95L Once Was and 96L Will be BUT... Will it Be Chantal? Time will Tell....

Models coming in for Invest 96L

8 PM

Gone Red...

70%

Models shown in Tweet below.

First of many rounds of tropical models coming in on #96L, which may threaten the NE Caribbean, possibly even #PuertoRico by early next week. #EyeonTropics pic.twitter.com/PhUvs21MlG

— tom terry (@TTerryWFTV) August 1, 2019

A tropical depression may form early next week..

According to wording from NHC.

Remember the map above isn't a cone.

It's a zone of formation for 96L

Where the X is ...is not where it's supposed to form....

The Red Grid is where it is supposed to form.

So what do models say?

Let's stick with the basics here.

GFS 2 runs.

Old and new. 

Does it really matter?

Yes and no.

It's far away things will change often.

Both are similar.

It consolidates and crosses PR/VI

Then North closer to Cuba...

...or Bahamas.

Again ends up where the 10% yellow grid is..

...for X95L.

Patterns persist understand?

Now we have the EURO.

It's like BEYONCE... 

Just has one name.

Weaker...

Same basic track.

Ends up in Bahamas on last run.

Next run further North in theory.

Just keep watching.

Be back tomorrow.

For good or bad watching the Dem Debate.

Love politics... it is what it is.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Ps... if you didn't read this earlier.

Keep reading some valuable explanations.

Still relevant... not much changed since this morning.

Other than the expected raising of percentages for 96L

2PM

60%

Still waiting for Invest 96L to be official.

You know cigars given out... 

... hype, headlines.

Seriously we just want better data.

The data train ramps up with it's officially an Invest.

Waiting.........

As for current models... 

Mike posted this a while ago.

You get the idea... 

..stronger than 95L

Tropics Wednesday Morning.

Last day of July.

At 8AM NHC said....

10% chance in the 5 day for Invest 95L

50% orange for the Big African Wave 

Note you can connect the dots between the two.

More on that later.

First let's look at what was 95L

Because after 8AM they pulled it.

Always got to stay on top of NHC in Real Time ;)

We see Invest 95L has moved up towards the Bahamas and South Florida. This area is a common breeding ground for July close in development of tropical storms. Sometimes depressions linger and other times a hurricane eventually develops from convection that pulls together around the Bermuda Triangle where the water is warm and weather often gets wild fast. Currently have low expectations but pointing out the convection already off the West Coast of Florida so it seems like a Convection Convention all over Florida.

Understand IF this develops it is a real time development of a home grown mess.  Either way it's expected to amp up the normal South Florida convection and we could see more localized flooding and more incredible lightning displays. Nothing new there. The loop below shows the low and has an orange dotted line down near where Invest 95L would be on that last frame.

Also note the front moving down across the Southeast towards Florida. Boom collides with TD3 and the moisture gets sucked up over Florida. Same thing that happened with TD3. Let me show you below how repetitive this pattern has been so fast this season.  

X Invest 95L today.

TD3 old Cone.

If this doesn't scream out "pattern" to you.

Can't think of anything else that would.

There is now a 50-50 chance this area to watch develops over the MDR of the Atlantic basin. The Lesser Antilles will need to monitor the progress of this potential tropical cyclone. #tropics pic.twitter.com/e47OJEXTKS

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 31, 2019

Speaking of something else.

Let's look at our African Wave.

Using Mike's grid from www.spaghettimodels.com

Well organized grids on his page.

Mike can be fun and act silly.

He's extremely logical in his organization of grids.

Purple splotches over the East Atlantic.

Blue Purple over the MDR

Tropical Hazards candy cane red in the Atlantic.

That's the first time we've seen that.

Expect ti to happen often.

Green off of Florida ....

Now look at the water.

Again it's most inviting closer in....

...if the waves manage to get closer in.

We need to watch out.

As for models......

Let's do this visually.

The famous EURO below.

Tuesday the front and remnants of 95L above.

(By the way NRL actually pulled the plug on 95L today)

Waiting for them to put up 96L any minute.

Thursday a more intensified system is in the Bahamas.

Close to where 95L will be tomorrow.

Get the picture?

See the pattern?

Note the most closed off system.

But looks better than 95L.

The pattern progresses.

The infamous GFS

Tuesday.

Less mess from 95L

There's the 96L

Thursday.

GFS has more going on than the EURO.

Bet you want to see Friday right?

Gotta tell you the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system.

Later today most likely........

We will have more models run as it should be 96L by then.

The bottom line here is this....

Today is the day to watch the NHC do it's monitoring of the African Wave. Could Invest 95L make a come back? Yes it could as it has already done so once but again as I said earlier it's a mess of convection for now and nothing more. A mess of convection in the Miami area or other parts of Florida could be problematic as often our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than Invests or Tropical Depressions so watch your weather apps and experts in real time carefully.

As for the Atlantic Wave now at 50% inching up in percentages slowly it's another one to watch. But again the remnants of 95L end up where TD3 ended up and it's not quite a lock in but looking that way that 96L will also end up playing on the same golf range in the Bermuda Bahamas. Could it go further West or be strong enough to be Chantal ... the answer is yes. Why you ask? Because it hasn't formed yet and it's still a potential storm but the potential for this to become Chantal keeps showing up on models.  I'll update later this afternoon if and when they declare it 96L and we get better models and are better able to analyze it from all angles. The NRL is a great site, but there are so many great sites we use to observe and analyze every cloud, wave and mess of convection in the tropics. We are so lucky. Years back people lived along the coast of Florida or the Carolinas and never knew a tropical wave had wrapped up into a strong hurricane and was coming there way. So be glad for all we have as hurricanes are pretty much the only real natural disaster you can see coming and plan for so start planning for a busy season with hurricanes coming our way, moving up towards fronts that we still see on the maps going into August and where they tango tells the whole story. 

As for me I'm back in North Carolina after a prolonged trip back to South Florida and a few days near the Florida Georgia Line. After a night in Jacksonville Florida we drove on up to Georgia to a part of the world I love a lot. Can't say how much I love the low country and the coast. Spent some time in St. Mary's Georgia Monday where they are still rebuilding the docks destroyed by Hurricane Irma. 

Again St Mary’s #Georgia still rebuilding the dock they lost in #Hurricane #irma pic.twitter.com/6G9OdngLhv

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 31, 2019

The video below is a bit raucous.

But some people do get that way in Savannah.

Not me... I just wander around and smile.

Sip wine and eat pralines.

Have a late night ice cream....

...and give thanks for being where I feel home.

Conceived in Georgia.

Born in Florida.

Living in North Carolina.

I'm about as Southern as it gets.

Southern Girls know hurricanes well.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for real time updates.

Ps... if you like Low Country.

Check out Beaufort, SC.

It's beautiful.... 

Stopped in to get some Espresso.

They make good coffee there.

It's coffee with a view.

If you like coffee and the view check it out!

Pastries and a large menu .....

http://magnoliacafebeaufort.com/

Nothing like the Coast of Carolina.

Where many systems will take aim this year at...

....and hopefully slide by waving.

Because no one wants tropical visitors who come to stay ;)

UPDATED 94L ---NHC 40% Orange. GFS MEAN.. Develops Don & Aims It At Islands, SE Coast .. What will next run show? GFS Been Very Stubborn on Seeing Formation. EURO Plays Hard to Get. Bahamas Need to Watch IF This Scenario Plays Out. FAR FAR AWAY.

Invest 94L formed Saturday Evening.

Doing a brief update tonight.

Please read the rest of the post if you have not.

All is still very relevant.

You can almost see a face in that shot above.

NRL is up and running on 94L

Floater Loop Below:

There's some stronger convection building.

Building Low away from the strong SAL

Note how 94L took a big bite out of SAL.

Pic on Left is 2 days ago.

Pic on right is today.

That's impressive.

Note something I wrote back on Friday.

When models were first whispering on a wave.

The thought are still valid.

Pay attention to what I said on the Para GFS.

I'll update the model discussion tomorrow but understand this ... each model changes a bit from run to run. The GFS has been insistent on something forming. Other models have jumped on board. Euro is still slow to jump on the Don Train but seems to be coming around. 

It all depends now on a few major factors. Water temperatures, shear and the location of the Bermuda High.  The current set up is rather favorable for 94L to be upgraded as shear is lower than usual and a high of sorts is building aloft and set to be a traveling companion for 94L and that could help 94L get the name Don sooner rather than later. Most models show 94L/Don approaching the Islands at a higher latitude than the last few waves. If there is an opening in the High a well formed storm will take the opportunity and make a run for it. If the High snaps shut then it will be forced more to the West. And, yes that could include getting into the GOM as a longer shot but that shot is currently on the table if you extrapolate the models along with the synoptics. Time will tell as usual. I'll update in depth Monday Morning but for now it is an Invest with 60% chances of forming within the next 5 days. As it's so far away it's nice to have the NRL on top of it as well as the NHC floater. 

Note set up changes from day to day as do the general steering currents but hopefully this set up will have changed in 10 days or we could be in for a difficult time in Florida or the Bahamas. The high moves around a lot as does the Jetstream and shear so stay tuned and remember no track ten days out is set in stone. But it shows an opening over Florida between two highs. That is today, not ten days from now. But it does explain the problem.

Something to think on and if you have not prepared for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season do it now while there is water at Publix and diapers left on the shelf. You may be safe from Don but I can't say the same for Emily and Franklin down the line. Oh and speaking of the  line most models develop another wave behind this one.

Sweet tropical dreams, BobbiStorm  Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for faster updates!

* * * * *

40% Orange Region of Development in 5 Day from NHC

10% in 2 Day... Yellow X.

Why is everyone so worried on a long range model?

JULY 12TH GFS puts it off coast of South Florida!

Worth remembering this is not the 1st time.

GFS has been stubborn on formation.

And GFS has stubbornly aimed it towards SE US.

Well after aiming it at the Islands...

Remember that song "Where do I begin...." that's how I feel this evening trying to write something about the waves that are barely there and the hurricane the GFS is showing on it's very, very long range modeling that should be called "Return of Matthew" as it veers North off shore and scrapes it's way off shore bumping into Jax on it's way to landfall around Savannah. Yes, I know that was last year and Hurricane Matthew. No I am not dreaming. Is the GFS having nightmares or is it sniffing a pattern that needs close monitoring? Obviously as the NHC blinked and put up an early, distant, faraway orange circle off of Africa. The EURO does see some sort of barely there formation and kind of loses it on the last run. More a disturbance in the force on the EURO vs Doomsday Scenario on the GFS. It is worth pointing out to the doubters that the GFS was correct in long range modeling on formation of Cindy in the GOM and closer to eventual landfall than the Euro. Then again the Euro has yet to really weigh in here yet.

This is true. GFS did well with Cindy.

Cindy wasn't much to write home about...

..but GFS saw Cindy forming early on.

GFS took Cindy into N GOM

EURO took Cindy to South of the Border

I mean Mexico not the Carolinas ;)

Future Fantasy runs of the GFS are really mean.

Next question is I know ...

...show me the Euro!

Euro as I said sees "something" there.

Disturbance in the High... 

...as I said earlier.

But this is the BOTTOM LINE.

It is possible something forms.

It is possible it moves towards the Islands.

If you don't have it download their App!

What is worth understanding is between here and now and Mid July a lot can and will happen. A storm can form and move into the GOM battle shear that is there like the waves have been doing. Because it's moving slow right now that is less likely to happen, the fast forward speed of the last few models inhibited them from forming. Also they were riding lower than this wave is that is forecast to be even higher in a week or so. 

It's like a NASCAR track in a way. The path for most of these waves until the Islands is pretty much set in stone right now. It may not seem like it but it is as there are few variables other than not forming at all and giving it up to the Dust that's out there in early July. The GFS sees a winner in this scenario and the winner is not Jacksonville or Florida or the Carolinas. Oh and the Bahamas get nailed in that GFS long range scenario.

Worth noting SAL seems more impressive than the waves.

So this wave really needs to show us the money.

And yes there are waves behind it.

But it's the negative the GFS seems to be ignoring.

Again the GFS show development 40 West.

And the GFS has been like a dog with a bone.

Will this bone become Hurricane Don?

Hmmm... 

Originally if you go back through my posts you'll see the GFS did a remake of Hurricane David and veered NW and rather than hitting Miami (just scared everyone) it slammed into NE Florida. Then it did a remake of Bertha slamming it into the Carolinas which obviously point out way too far into the Atlantic Ocean. Then is shows a Matthew scenario skimming along the Florida coast as if it wants to take a ride on A1A and then goes in for the kill around Jacksonville or St. Mary's Florida. What will the GFS show tomorrow and Monday and Tuesday and will the Euro show us a different solution? Stay tuned. 

Basically I wrote this late night post while watching NASCAR because I want to be able to look back at it after we see what really happened. It's also worth noting that the GFS does predict Tropical Storm or Hurricane Don forming and the NHC has put up an orange circle. But any models that are posted this weekend are for a very long range track and that will change often. So we watch. It's that simple. Either way this weekend or any weekend is a good time to go over your hurricane plans if you live on the SE Coast and make sure you are #HurricaneStrong. 

Besos BobbiStorm

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm ...

..I update in real time there.

Ps. A good blog post to read below, however the end is news worthy.

James Franklin is leaving the NHC... retiring.

That's big, he's been one of their big voices for a long time.

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2017/06/29/potential-tropical-cyclones-fitting-the-bill-for-more-timely-warnings/

92 In The Shade... Summer Begins Early. Hurricane Season Can't Be Far Away

Short post on the heat.

It's hot Down South.

Florida is baking in the sunshine.

Rumors of near 100 coming ...

...though forecast is for 94.

Heard it was 104 in Texas!!!!

Hurricane Coast is baking.

That means the coastal waters warming up also!

Look at those warm colors.

A tongue of warm water...

..looping around the Gulfstream.

Another teasing, tongue in the GOM.

HOT water off the Mexican Coast.

Epac Season starts May 15th..

Watch the loop below.

Moisture in the Caribbean ...

...from an old frontal boundary.

Storms slicing across Georgia into Carolinas.

A lot going on there.

It's late and I'm on the road. In a really nice room that is clean, but stinks of some sort of Lily of the Valley, Freesia room scent that smells clean but a lot like my mother's perfume that I didn't like. I'm not a hater we just had different tastes ...  I sprayed Victoria's Secrets around the room and made coffee so now it smells like the perfume counter at Nordstrom after someone spilled their Starbucks on the counter. I'm tired, I don't care. I'm somewhere I love so that's all that matters!!

Moisture is feeding up into the GOM fueling the severe storms in the Southeast. The ITCZ has begun to flow from East to West, though it's down low where it should be this time of year. A lot of orange and gold in the Caribbean, been watching that. Models are hinting at development, but you know how I feel about models and innuendo this far out. Watch the pattern, the trend and use a lot of sea salt for the long range models. Rumor has it we could get something in early May or so they say. I say "they say" as I'm not talking yet.

We drove through Jacksonville around sunset. Actually, we drove round and round looking for the right Winn Dixie that has lots of kosher wine and assorted necessities. Good news... we found it! The smoke from nearby fires was apparent. It seems there is smoke now from Central America as well reaching up into the Gulf of Mexico moving towards Florida.

Pretty but muted.

Beautiful actually in real time.

Note the low ITCZ on the map.

Note the large Low pressure system in the Atlantic.

Notice the two, huge, double barrel Highs . . .

Summer is almost here.

We have the NFL Draft.

Hurricane Season isn't far behind that...

It was very hot this afternoon while I was walking around feeling the heat and wondering why women wear leggings in 89 degree weather... Men wear their jeans no matter what, but for me 87 degrees is short skirt weather and sandals or heels if you really want to dress up. But, I digress. It's been an exhausting week in ways and yet extremely deep in thought on major life issues. Good discussions with best friends in Miami and quality time with family. One son is in La Paz so I missed his hugs while he was in the Mexican paradise, another son is leaving for Spain and London and oddly my son-in-law is on the way to Budapest tonight. This family really travels often to odd places. 

I hear La Paz is stunningly beautiful in a Netanya Israel sort of way. Cliffs, tropical water, flowers, palms and mansions for the rich and possibly famous. They also get hurricanes, yet I imagine if you have enough money you can hire your own security teams and lock down a mansion tighter than Ft. Knox. http://www.bajainsider.com/article/bajas-hurricane-history

Something to think on with EPAC starting soon..

As for me I'm going to sleep soon or going to try. I've been without Cable TV so getting my news from online as my kids spend their money in different ways. Apparently only old people watch FOX, CNN and TWC because all the ads are for erectile dysfunction. Some do watch MSNBC and BBC... and they use their phone to check on the weather so who needs TV? I had to go online and find out we were in the "crosshairs" of a war with China, N Korea and possibly Putin ...who knew? Life has been good not watching the news, got to tell you...

So if it's 92 in the shade we will soon have more to think on that who is being drafted and whether aliens are going to come and save the world (really? got nothing to write on? I saw a few odd click bait stories this week, nope not clicking on them). It's a world of "Alternative Facts" these days so watch out for where you get your facts. Here on Hurricane Harbor my facts come directly from the NHC and various well respected meteorologists as well as my own knowledge that is extensive as a Hurricane Historian. You have to sift through the hype and odd online stories to get the real nuggets of information. And as always.........be #HurricaneStrong! Knowledge is power, remember that!!

http://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

Check out these hashtags below and follow the suggestions from the NHC please.

#Itonlytakesone

#hurricanestrong

Going off... going to rest. Let's hope the world keeps on spinning this week. I need a good rest (selfishly said) and regroup before we end up back in South Florida again soon. I'll be there start of the hurricane season for a family party for my grandson and maybe Mother's Day and maybe sooner if things don't get better for my father-in-law but as always life goes on and we roll with the punches and if a storm comes along we clean up and build it stronger. 

Love you all...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I'll deal with whoever the Fins drafted tomorrow. 

Filmed in the Florida Keys... worth watching again sometime. Okay, not sure I ever watched it. Have to put it on my to do list.

Invest in paradise in Miami, it's a beautiful place to live. I'll be posting on that soon in this blog. Amazingly beautiful new construction, shiny city on the bay with a constant breeze and that breeze washes away worries, fears and tension. Fountain of Youth.... really.

https://www.compass.com/agents/miami/levi-meyer/