A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, May 09, 2017
ONE - E Forms... Forecast to be Adrian in EPAC. And So It Begins... Advisories from NHC New Graphics. New Tee Shirt from Spaghetti Models.
Tropical Depression 1-E
Early start to Epac Season.
(by a few days...)
Advisories.
Hurricane Preparation Discussion.
#HURRICANESTRONG
It gives those of us concerned on the Atlantic Basin a chance to see how the NHC does it's thing this year. Every year brings a certain amount of new rules, changes and so better now while it's so far away from our world before we have to deal with it up close and personal. Yes, there is speculation on part of it's energy getting into the Caribbean or GOM .... but seriously let's think on that later. Still too soon to say for sure, but people are talking online about the possibilities.
In this case we can see how the new graphics work.
Estimated timing of earliest TS winds.
Think of this as a test run for the Atlantic.
It is forecast to be TS Adrian.
Stay tuned....
...while waiting if you want to order a Tee shirt.
Mike from Spaghetti Models has them.
A wide variety including V neck and tank tops.
What's a chaser without a tee shirt?
Or a tracker or a fan...
www.spaghettimodels.com
Website below shows the styles and colors.
This is nice.....
https://www.bonfire.com/2017-hurricane-season/
And the first advisory of the season inspires us all.
Progressing Forward Into the Hurricane Season... The Times They Be A Changing...
There's a song that I can't remember about the times changing. We take two steps forward, one step back and slowly we move forward in time towards the unknown. I say unknown as the Hurricane Season of 2017 will only be understood in the rear view mirror or when someone adds the last storm on Wikipedia. To be fair the NHC will write a post season analysis of this storm and that storm and that will be the final word.
What we can see right now is that the Jet Stream is digging down deep as it is being whipped from the tightly wound Low to the North digging down low towards the Gulf of Mexico. If you look at the bottom left of the loop above you will see moisture congregating about like kids hanging out on a Saturday Night trying to figure out where to go.
That's digging deep down...
That digging deep is evident above.
Also a consolidation of moisture in EPAC
Looking further West ....
You notice the flow from West to East. There is some twisting and turning off the coast of Central America near Panama. It's congregating but having problems pulling it together. Nevertheless models do show development in the EPAC, however what happens after that becomes iffy. This feels so deja vu and I hate to even bring up the discussion regarding models showing whatever forms moving West to East into the Caribbean. It does happen, it is rare and yet discussion on models showing it happening happens more often than reality. But, hey it's May and that's where we end up often this time of year... watching and wondering.
It's too early to talk on which model said this or that, but what is worth noting is that there is talking going on these days. So we watch, we wait and wonder and time moves on it's way like a fast moving river as it makes it's way to the sea. You can either sit on the banks or jump in and see where the river takes you. Currently, the moisture in the EPAC is on the fence trying to get it together. And why there is a purple sliver of color off the Carolinas I'm not sure but maybe it's there to get our attention and remind us Hurricane Season is less than a month away.
Writing this in real time.
Okay I lied.
I'll talk on models a bit.
2 itsy bity Lows form ...
...and go poof around Carolina.
But look down to the bottom left.
What is worth noting is the HUGE HIGH PRESSURE.
May 12th the High moves back a bit.
A closed low and possibly Adrian forms.
Moves towards landfall.
Moisture spreads inland.
Things change.
That's the Euro above.
The GFS does funky things.
Sketchy things?
They are kind of like 2 brothers from a different mother.
They have so much in common but so different.
As Juliet said to Romeo, "oh swear not by the inconstant moon" and as BobbiStorm says swear not by early models in May. As always watch the loops, read my blog, give me your thoughts on Twitter or wherever and watch it all unfold in real time. The only thing I can say for sure is change is in the wind as the times they be a' changing.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Either way Mexico should be getting rain, one way or the other.
92 In The Shade... Summer Begins Early. Hurricane Season Can't Be Far Away
Short post on the heat.
It's hot Down South.
Florida is baking in the sunshine.
Rumors of near 100 coming ...
...though forecast is for 94.
Heard it was 104 in Texas!!!!
Hurricane Coast is baking.
That means the coastal waters warming up also!
Look at those warm colors.
A tongue of warm water...
..looping around the Gulfstream.
Another teasing, tongue in the GOM.
HOT water off the Mexican Coast.
Epac Season starts May 15th..
Watch the loop below.
Moisture in the Caribbean ...
...from an old frontal boundary.
Storms slicing across Georgia into Carolinas.
A lot going on there.
It's late and I'm on the road. In a really nice room that is clean, but stinks of some sort of Lily of the Valley, Freesia room scent that smells clean but a lot like my mother's perfume that I didn't like. I'm not a hater we just had different tastes ... I sprayed Victoria's Secrets around the room and made coffee so now it smells like the perfume counter at Nordstrom after someone spilled their Starbucks on the counter. I'm tired, I don't care. I'm somewhere I love so that's all that matters!!
Moisture is feeding up into the GOM fueling the severe storms in the Southeast. The ITCZ has begun to flow from East to West, though it's down low where it should be this time of year. A lot of orange and gold in the Caribbean, been watching that. Models are hinting at development, but you know how I feel about models and innuendo this far out. Watch the pattern, the trend and use a lot of sea salt for the long range models. Rumor has it we could get something in early May or so they say. I say "they say" as I'm not talking yet.
We drove through Jacksonville around sunset. Actually, we drove round and round looking for the right Winn Dixie that has lots of kosher wine and assorted necessities. Good news... we found it! The smoke from nearby fires was apparent. It seems there is smoke now from Central America as well reaching up into the Gulf of Mexico moving towards Florida.
Pretty but muted.
Beautiful actually in real time.
Note the low ITCZ on the map.
Note the large Low pressure system in the Atlantic.
Notice the two, huge, double barrel Highs . . .
Summer is almost here.
We have the NFL Draft.
Hurricane Season isn't far behind that...
It was very hot this afternoon while I was walking around feeling the heat and wondering why women wear leggings in 89 degree weather... Men wear their jeans no matter what, but for me 87 degrees is short skirt weather and sandals or heels if you really want to dress up. But, I digress. It's been an exhausting week in ways and yet extremely deep in thought on major life issues. Good discussions with best friends in Miami and quality time with family. One son is in La Paz so I missed his hugs while he was in the Mexican paradise, another son is leaving for Spain and London and oddly my son-in-law is on the way to Budapest tonight. This family really travels often to odd places.
I hear La Paz is stunningly beautiful in a Netanya Israel sort of way. Cliffs, tropical water, flowers, palms and mansions for the rich and possibly famous. They also get hurricanes, yet I imagine if you have enough money you can hire your own security teams and lock down a mansion tighter than Ft. Knox. http://www.bajainsider.com/article/bajas-hurricane-history
Something to think on with EPAC starting soon..
As for me I'm going to sleep soon or going to try. I've been without Cable TV so getting my news from online as my kids spend their money in different ways. Apparently only old people watch FOX, CNN and TWC because all the ads are for erectile dysfunction. Some do watch MSNBC and BBC... and they use their phone to check on the weather so who needs TV? I had to go online and find out we were in the "crosshairs" of a war with China, N Korea and possibly Putin ...who knew? Life has been good not watching the news, got to tell you...
So if it's 92 in the shade we will soon have more to think on that who is being drafted and whether aliens are going to come and save the world (really? got nothing to write on? I saw a few odd click bait stories this week, nope not clicking on them). It's a world of "Alternative Facts" these days so watch out for where you get your facts. Here on Hurricane Harbor my facts come directly from the NHC and various well respected meteorologists as well as my own knowledge that is extensive as a Hurricane Historian. You have to sift through the hype and odd online stories to get the real nuggets of information. And as always.........be #HurricaneStrong! Knowledge is power, remember that!!
http://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness
Check out these hashtags below and follow the suggestions from the NHC please.
#Itonlytakesone
#hurricanestrong
Going off... going to rest. Let's hope the world keeps on spinning this week. I need a good rest (selfishly said) and regroup before we end up back in South Florida again soon. I'll be there start of the hurricane season for a family party for my grandson and maybe Mother's Day and maybe sooner if things don't get better for my father-in-law but as always life goes on and we roll with the punches and if a storm comes along we clean up and build it stronger.
Love you all...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. I'll deal with whoever the Fins drafted tomorrow.
Filmed in the Florida Keys... worth watching again sometime. Okay, not sure I ever watched it. Have to put it on my to do list.
Invest in paradise in Miami, it's a beautiful place to live. I'll be posting on that soon in this blog. Amazingly beautiful new construction, shiny city on the bay with a constant breeze and that breeze washes away worries, fears and tension. Fountain of Youth.... really.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
