Time Waits For No One... Hurricane Season is Around the Corner.

Time flies when you are traveling. And, I've been traveling a lot lately. I'm back for a day or so ... so it occurs to me I should blog. I did think on putting a "Be Back Soon" sign on the blog or "Save This Space" but nah I'm going to say hello and try to put early April into perspective from my point of view.

I'm in Raleigh this morning and wondering why it looks more like Seattle with gray skies that are darker in Raleigh than they are in Seattle; something about diffraction of light possibly but my son explained it to me and he's right. Raleigh on a gray day is so gray it's dark, dreary and a sort of denial of Spring. Fall and Spring often bring these gray days when the weather just hangs low over Raleigh. It's okay, I've come to like it and appreciate it. For instance on Saturday which is my Jewish Sabbath I was in Temple staring out at the wisteria that somehow looked prettier on a gray day than on Sunday when I went over to take a picture in the bright sunshine. Wisteria like Jacaranda looks most beautiful on a gray day. I know that because I lived in LA and it's often gray early in the morning and later in the afternoon as the marine layer lays over the city for much of the day sometimes.

I have a confession to make. I've been laying low and trying to avoid the ever flowing news headlines that keep coming faster than the cold fronts sliding East across the nation. The last one was so strong it raced down through Florida and then turned into a Stationary Front hanging across the Straits of Florida. Yes, I am watching every day a bit more at the satellite imagery. And, I keep watching each new front sweep in from the Pacific slamming the NW part of this country with never ending rain, gray skies and infrequent wind or hail. Spoiler alert time flies whether you are watching it or not.

This loop and others are on Spaghetti Models.

http://spaghettimodels.com

We drove down to Miami to visit with my children who had babies over the last month or two. My daughter in Brooklyn met us in Raleigh and we drove down to Florida with her so that provided some rare quality time. In Miami and Hollywood Florida the family gathered for the Passover holiday. When I say gathered that's an understatement with my gang. I'm pretty sure there are some Native America Pow Wows that have less people and less noise. I know noise is good as it shows people are alive and kicking. Meyer kids tend to be loud, vibrant and talkative. The younger Meyer kids tend to be quieter though they are vibrant and fun. Babies cry and sleep, two year olds say "NO!" and sometimes slug someone (alive and kicking ...) and kids when they get together as adults often (but not always) revert back to who they were when they were teenagers.  Did you know Whole Foods has stopped carrying Happy Camper since they were bought by Amazon? Really pretty pathetic as I had to hunt it down at Sprouts Market in Raleigh. A few of my favorite products have been dropped from Whole Foods which is annoying but it forces you to spread your wings and spread more money around into small local stores that often get lost when competing with the larger juggernaut stores that charge more money anyway. Yes, they are really called "Happy Camper Pills" and they do give a measure of calm, energy on days when 20 or 30 family members are gathered together to memorialize tradition and history. I'm pretty sure the early Hebrews did not have them when they left Egypt and headed for the Red Sea. 

So that being said I'm going to go out and do things I need to do before heading out to Seattle to visit with my West Coast kids that I rarely get to spend any real quality time with as well...it's a long expensive flight (especially during cruise season so you got to go fast before fares go up) and using up my Southwest Miles to travel for miles to see the kids there. It's my granddaughter Bella's birthday and I want to spend it with her this year rather than watching from a far.  Then I can come back to Raleigh and settle down and settle in as the Atlantic Hurricane Season moves closer day by day whether I'm paying attention or not. Are you paying attention? It's easier to prepare now before an approaching hurricane fills up your Publix faster than you can say "oh my gosh not again!!"

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-04-04-hurricane-season-forecast-atlantic-colorado-state

Yup, time waits for no man or woman or gender neutral person. Soon I'll be writing every day and discussing tropical tropics on a daily basis. I know that sounded redundant. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I hope you are happy .... I updated the blog! I updated but not proof reading!!

94L Still a Contender. NHC Lowers Chances to 60% Approaching 40 W Where Models Originally Showed It Developing. Keep Watching... It's Still There After All These Days.

Today has been an interesting day for Invest 94L

1. It remains alive.

2. It's structure is more visible.

3. It's convective burst has maintained itself....

It's taking the more difficult road that is clear.

And the longer it stays weak the further West it gets.

Why is that important?

Because at some point the Bermuda High will build in..

At some point it gets closer to land concerns.

The dream of a Fish Storm fades away.

Now it could simply give it up to shear....

Disappear...  poof...finally gone.

But it has showed a stubborn persistence so far.

And that's because it does have a weak circulation.

It's not just a bunch of weather moving WNW.

Actually it had very little weather at all.

Just a weak circulation moving W to WNW.

Notice how the ULL steals your attention away from 94L

And in between a sea of dust and dry air.

Officially NHC lowered it's chances some.

We are back to orange 60% chances over 5 days.

If you watch the loop above you will see two things.

Invest 94L bottom right spinning a bit.

To it's NW is a strong ULL also spinning.

The moth and the flame basically.

Spoiler alert 94L is the moth.

Models continue to extrapolate their previous tracks.

Except they get closer to our world on each run.

So remember what I said about eventually the high will build in?

Notice the latter part of the models show a bend to the left.

(left means West but we don't want to panic anyone)

The good news is that some of the models show it coming together, falling apart, coming together and eventually falling apart before making landfall as a tropical mess with no real strength.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

You can run the GFS model above and see what I mean or you can just trust me ;)

Euro below...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

What do I think? I don't trust models ten days out and counting. I trust short term models and watch the long term models. Shear forecasting is iffy at best and my trust in a cold front being strong enough to get down past the Carolinas in hot July evaporates in the 90 degree temperature and very heavy humidity. Trust me I would love to see it happen but I have low confidence in that happening. The Upper Level Low is putting on a great show but like hurricanes they have their day in the sun and eventually fill in or move somewhere else and the High comes back like the infamous cat. And, yes it IS a cat and mouse game always, every day during the hurricane season.

Elsewhere there is a wave moving towards Florida and the Bahamas and much moisture lingering around the Caribbean. Nothing specific to worry on as much as to watch for trends, patterns and such. Again that is not a projected path or model for Invest 94L just the previous wave and where moisture goes is often a pattern to watch. Let's say Invest 94L doesn't become a Tropical Storm and it turns into a semi open wave .... where would that moisture go?

It has somewhat separated from the Monsoon Trough.

You can see it's loose circulation as well as the ULL.

The ULL is Goliath and 94L is David currently.

Does 94L have a game plan to get the D storm name?

Stay tuned.

How can it look so bad and still be a contender you wonder?

It's more there than not there.

The road ahead is iffy.

Yet it remains.

It may look like just a dot to you but that's the Dvorak.

This is the best is has looked on the Dvorak in days.

Shows intensity. Strong winds, nasty weather.

Yesterday it developed a mirror like spot to the South.

Not really a tail but a lot of moisture to the South.

And since last yesterday it sort of sucked that moisture up.

Keeping it alive.

Think Red Bull.

See loop above.

See the white vapor trail below 94L helping to keep it alive?

Where will it go if it survives?

If it develops it will move more to the North and stay further East.

Every day it doesn't develop it ends up further South.

And further West dragging the models with it.

Kind of like where the previous wave is now.

I can only tell you to check back often.

Check your favorites sources.

Don't worry on it.

Don't write it off.

Just keep watching.

Time will tell.

And that longitude line it's approaching is 40 West.

Go back to my previous post shown below.

I said over and over the models don't develop it until 40 West.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/07/monday-in-tropics-starring-invest-94l.html

Monday I showed you these 3 models above.

Remember? IF you didn't read it read it now please.

In different intensities it was forecast to end up there.

Models change often. 

The Invest remains and so do the questions.

Don't believe long term models.

But watch the trend and watch the system.

And check back here often.

Again time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for fast updates in real time.

Ps Watch to see if the reds hang in there.

If you see any green... watch more often ;)

It's approaching 40 West where the water is warmer.

Progressing Forward Into the Hurricane Season... The Times They Be A Changing...

There's a song that I can't remember about the times changing. We take two steps forward, one step back and slowly we move forward in time towards the unknown. I say unknown as the Hurricane Season of 2017 will only be understood in the rear view mirror or when someone adds the last storm on Wikipedia. To be fair the NHC will write a post season analysis of this storm and that storm and that will be the final word.

What we can see right now is that the Jet Stream is digging down deep as it is being whipped from the tightly wound Low to the North digging down low towards the Gulf of Mexico. If you look at the bottom left of the loop above you will see moisture congregating about like kids hanging out on a Saturday Night trying to figure out where to go.

That's digging deep down... 

That digging deep is evident above.

Also a consolidation of moisture in EPAC

Looking further West ....

You notice the flow from West to East. There is some twisting and turning off the coast of Central America near Panama. It's congregating but having problems pulling it together. Nevertheless models do show development in the EPAC, however what happens after that becomes iffy. This feels so deja vu and I hate to even bring up the discussion regarding models showing whatever forms moving West to East into the Caribbean. It does happen, it is rare and yet discussion on models showing it happening happens more often than reality. But, hey it's May and that's where we end up often this time of year... watching and wondering.

It's too early to talk on which model said this or that, but what is worth noting is that there is talking going on these days. So we watch, we wait and wonder and time moves on it's way like a fast moving river as it makes it's way to the sea. You can either sit on the banks or jump in and see where the river takes you. Currently, the moisture in the EPAC is on the fence trying to get it together. And why there is a purple sliver of color off the Carolinas I'm not sure but maybe it's there to get our attention and remind us Hurricane Season is less than a month away.

Writing this in real time.

Okay I lied.

I'll talk on models a bit.

2 itsy bity Lows form ...

...and go poof around Carolina.

But look down to the bottom left.

What is worth noting is the HUGE HIGH PRESSURE.

May 12th the High moves back a bit.

A closed low and possibly Adrian forms.

Moves towards landfall.

Moisture spreads inland.

Things change.

That's the Euro above.

The GFS does funky things.

Sketchy things?

They are kind of like 2 brothers from a different mother.

They have so much in common but so different.

As Juliet said to Romeo, "oh swear not by the inconstant moon" and as BobbiStorm says swear not by early models in May. As always watch the loops, read my blog, give me your thoughts on Twitter or wherever and watch it all unfold in real time. The only thing I can say for sure is change is in the wind as the times they be a' changing.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Either way Mexico should be getting rain, one way or the other.

The Problem With Snow

Problem with snow is that the blooms are on the trees, leaves are on the trees and some produce has begun to grow in Farmer John's garden. A heavy snow can weigh down those blooming Cherry Blossoms and damage the trees in randomly odd ways depending on the size of the tree. A lot of "it depends" sort of intangibles today and that happens in years when Mother Nature tries to wrestle back control late in the season.

So today's post is more a tease than a long read. Putting it up here to see how it compares with tomorrow's forecast.

I'm wearing thin Luluroe Spring like leggings today with a short sleeve shirt. Getting hard to decide what to wear as it's cold in the morning and 75 in the afternoon with a forecast of snow for Sunday.

And want to add in one more thing.

Has Tecumseh come back to life?

I guess if he was a character on GH he could.

Second big storm threat in the same region.

Again August Total Eclipse tracks over the same area.

Are these things connected?

Who knows.

Just seems kind of curious....

Stay tuned to see who gets snow this weekend.

As the storm moves a bit to the East...

...we will have a better idea.

Models will improve.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps.... you thought I was going to play Jimmy Buffett?

Or Total Eclipse of the Heart?