A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, May 10, 2017
TS ADRIAN FORMS IN EPAC. Hurricane Season Coming to the Atlantic SOON... Are You Aware Enough to Be Prepared? #Hurricanestrong NHC Doing All It Can Are You Paying Attn? Learn before the storm forms...
Some consolidation there at core.
Banding.. kind of...
Tropical Storm Adrian arrives early!
TS Adrian formed officially a few days early.
TS Adrian formed in the Eastern Pacific and is forecast to curve to the North towards the Mexican coastline and hook a bit to the NE in towards landfall. The moisture will move across Mexico and the Yucatan somewhere. This should be not a reminder, but a wake up call to us in the Atlantic Basin that ready or not the 2017 Hurricane Season is weeks away. Actually as we are on the B storm it already began in a de facto way when Arlene formed a while back. The details are not as important here as much as the message. Get ready! Be prepared!! When you look at Adrian remember Bret and Cindy will be here soon enough.
I put up on an old video to illustrate that history repeats. Learn from history. Stay alive, cause the heat is on.... The basin warms up and to be honest parts of the basin already have warm water earlier than normal. The discussion on El Nino being a bit preliminary and possibly mitigated by warmer ocean temperatures being an additional concern. Either way it's May and it feels like July in the Florida Keys. Temperatures in the Keys are nearing the mid 80s mark and as the temperature creeps up the water temperatures creep up as well. A lot of creeping going on and before you know it the Hurricane Season is here and cones are aimed not at Mexico but towards Florida and the Carolinas and everywhere in between. This year the Caribbean could be in play as well and hurricanes could slam into the Islands rather than curve gracefully away. Each year is different, however the one caveat remains the same. Be prepared!
And, Lord knows the NHC tries it's best to prepare the public as well as the local stations that show one video after another of Andrew, Hugo and even Matthew. But is anyone paying attention? Is there anything more the NHC can do to warn the public and educate them to inform them of what they need to know to be #HURRICANESTRONG. Okay it's a Hashtag... it means to be prepared, it rhymes with informed and you stay strong and alive when a Category 4 Hurricane comes knocking at your door! If you live in the Miami area this event is coming to your area. Go and learn what you need to know. Take #selfies and send them to me @bobbistorm on Twitter ;) and I'll use them in the blog. How's that?
http://www.weather.gov/mfl/
To be honest with the extreme heat in Tampa...
...bit worried on the Eastern GOM this year.
Just saying.........
Knowledge is power.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Perhaps selfies on Snapchat?
Whatever social media you use...
...spread the word.
Hurricanes can hit from any direction in Florida...
ONE - E Forms... Forecast to be Adrian in EPAC. And So It Begins... Advisories from NHC New Graphics. New Tee Shirt from Spaghetti Models.
Tropical Depression 1-E
Early start to Epac Season.
(by a few days...)
Advisories.
Hurricane Preparation Discussion.
#HURRICANESTRONG
It gives those of us concerned on the Atlantic Basin a chance to see how the NHC does it's thing this year. Every year brings a certain amount of new rules, changes and so better now while it's so far away from our world before we have to deal with it up close and personal. Yes, there is speculation on part of it's energy getting into the Caribbean or GOM .... but seriously let's think on that later. Still too soon to say for sure, but people are talking online about the possibilities.
In this case we can see how the new graphics work.
Estimated timing of earliest TS winds.
Think of this as a test run for the Atlantic.
It is forecast to be TS Adrian.
Stay tuned....
...while waiting if you want to order a Tee shirt.
Mike from Spaghetti Models has them.
A wide variety including V neck and tank tops.
What's a chaser without a tee shirt?
Or a tracker or a fan...
www.spaghettimodels.com
Website below shows the styles and colors.
This is nice.....
https://www.bonfire.com/2017-hurricane-season/
And the first advisory of the season inspires us all.
Progressing Forward Into the Hurricane Season... The Times They Be A Changing...
There's a song that I can't remember about the times changing. We take two steps forward, one step back and slowly we move forward in time towards the unknown. I say unknown as the Hurricane Season of 2017 will only be understood in the rear view mirror or when someone adds the last storm on Wikipedia. To be fair the NHC will write a post season analysis of this storm and that storm and that will be the final word.
What we can see right now is that the Jet Stream is digging down deep as it is being whipped from the tightly wound Low to the North digging down low towards the Gulf of Mexico. If you look at the bottom left of the loop above you will see moisture congregating about like kids hanging out on a Saturday Night trying to figure out where to go.
That's digging deep down...
That digging deep is evident above.
Also a consolidation of moisture in EPAC
Looking further West ....
You notice the flow from West to East. There is some twisting and turning off the coast of Central America near Panama. It's congregating but having problems pulling it together. Nevertheless models do show development in the EPAC, however what happens after that becomes iffy. This feels so deja vu and I hate to even bring up the discussion regarding models showing whatever forms moving West to East into the Caribbean. It does happen, it is rare and yet discussion on models showing it happening happens more often than reality. But, hey it's May and that's where we end up often this time of year... watching and wondering.
It's too early to talk on which model said this or that, but what is worth noting is that there is talking going on these days. So we watch, we wait and wonder and time moves on it's way like a fast moving river as it makes it's way to the sea. You can either sit on the banks or jump in and see where the river takes you. Currently, the moisture in the EPAC is on the fence trying to get it together. And why there is a purple sliver of color off the Carolinas I'm not sure but maybe it's there to get our attention and remind us Hurricane Season is less than a month away.
Writing this in real time.
Okay I lied.
I'll talk on models a bit.
2 itsy bity Lows form ...
...and go poof around Carolina.
But look down to the bottom left.
What is worth noting is the HUGE HIGH PRESSURE.
May 12th the High moves back a bit.
A closed low and possibly Adrian forms.
Moves towards landfall.
Moisture spreads inland.
Things change.
That's the Euro above.
The GFS does funky things.
Sketchy things?
They are kind of like 2 brothers from a different mother.
They have so much in common but so different.
As Juliet said to Romeo, "oh swear not by the inconstant moon" and as BobbiStorm says swear not by early models in May. As always watch the loops, read my blog, give me your thoughts on Twitter or wherever and watch it all unfold in real time. The only thing I can say for sure is change is in the wind as the times they be a' changing.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Either way Mexico should be getting rain, one way or the other.
One Month to Go til Hurricane Season. May 1st.. Just Breathe and Watch the Patterns and Just Breathe.
May 1st awakens every tropical weather person to reverie every time they see a wave off Africa or convection in the Caribbean. Today marks a month until the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and more importantly 15 days until the start of the EPAC season where convection tends to wrap itself up into named storms first. From year to year this can change, but it's a pattern and Climatography dictates watching both sides of Central America this time of year. Storms form from convection that lingers on both sides of the Isthmus of Panama and there can only be one winner. If anything forms in the EPAC it would be Adrian and in the Atlantic Bret. Keep that in mind and don't start asking "what if it crosses over" before anything even forms.
I can tell it's getting closer to Hurricane Season when chatter online increases and people squabble over nothing except details that matter mostly to the Devil. To be clear we are already on the B storm and I'm not going to second guess or criticize or high five the NHC for their naming the system in the Atlantic Arlene. Life goes on, let's move on...
Watch where the moisture connects.
Watch where it flows.
Watch patterns set up.
Note the convection in the Gulf of Mexico link up with the frontal boundary pushing East. Watch what happens when that convection makes it down into the Caribbean and people online begin to bicker as to the possibilities for an early May storm. I don't watch for the storm, I watch the bickering and hype as signs of what will be down the line. Weather models are fun, but not as much fun as meteorologists. When people get hungry they get nasty, competitive and many are hungry for a "real hurricane season" whatever that is - - - as we haven't had one in a while. Last year was busy and yet it was not your normal Hurricane Season. Storms formed and faded away as if some Weather Witch was putting a spell on them to die an early death and yet they came back over and over. Colin and Hermine are probably best remembered for being Invests that fought to get a name and both made landfall.
In the rear view mirror and the lens of history 2016 turned out to be a rather active hurricane season despite it's preliminary reviews in March and April of 2016. Remember that when throwing in the towel before the fight has begun or giving up half way through while blaming the moon and everything else for killing off the hurricanes. It takes time and time will always tell in the end.
Look at the map above ....
...you see the usual suspects.
Storms formed in the Eastern Atlantic for a change and most swam out to sea as fish storms usually do. Storms formed in the Caribbean and some went West and others took that popular route towards Florida. Julia formed over Florida and I got to intersect her path while driving South to visit family and friends after seeing Julia first. Everything in life is timing, especially storm chasing. Julia may not have been strong but the wind blew through my hair, it rearranged things, caused flooding and in general was an appetizer to the area that was to experience Hurricane Matthew down the road.
A look back at Matthew with early discussion and long range models.
Then Invest 97L formed into Matthew and odd things began to happen. Who can remember the photogenic Hurricane Matthew spinning, building, partying just off the coast of South America? Which model was right? Which way would he go? Would that displaced convection hurt him or help him or was it really an irrelevant question in the end? Meteorology students will study Matthew for a long time I believe.
In the end Matthew flirted with Miami.
Traveled up the coast a bit to the East of Julia's track.
The powers that be debated if this was landfall.
Some moments from Matthew.
You decide? Looks like landfall to me.
But did the center of the eye make landfall?
Devil is in the details.
So are statistics it seems.
So while hearing early discussion on the 2017 Hurricane Season I would suggest you take it all with a lot of sea salt and watch it play out in real time. El Nino years often bring the biggest hurricanes (Andrew, Betsy to name two) and each El Nino is different and sometimes things that come together fast also fade away as fast. Mother Nature often has the last word the way she did with Hurricane Matthew.
So enjoy your favorite version of my theme of the morning with regard to the Hurricane Season that is now officially a month away, even though we are looking for the B storm already.
Just breathe............
As for me I've got things to do and here and there I loop a loop.
I learned much from 2016. I smelled a scent I liked but balked at buying it as it was expensive and sometimes you like a scent and then after a while you rarely use it ... and well I didn't buy it. Big mistake....
I really loved this scent, but a few weeks later when I finally decided to buy it ... it was gone.
People bought it up and sold it on Ebay for way more than it was at Saks. Sigh.
So this trip to Miami I bought a scent I liked as I learned a good lesson.
I wish I had the Orange Bitters from Jo Malone more ... but what can I do?
Except to live and learn and move on and now I'm wearing Magnolia Star today.
It's a nice scent and comes with a fake flower and as we know packaging is everything.
The magnolia trees here are just starting to bloom so I'll be in tune with the seasons.
Weather people love to bicker because they love weather and are passionate about it both in real time and in the rear view mirror. It's part and parcel of the Hurricane Season. For some reason people argue less over blizzards and tornadoes than they do hurricanes. Be warned we are moving into the Mean Season and it's called the "mean season" for a reason.
Besos BobbiStorm
Add me on Twitter at @bobbistorm
Ps. Yesterday was a banner day for me. I had a son-in-law in Budapest, a son in La Paz and my youngest son flying off to Madrid. Everyone's traveling and I'm happy to be home today, this week and who knows where I'll be the week after that. Wherever I am I'll be watching the weather and blogging. My brother in Greece is closer to my youngest son today than I am ... go figure. He's an artist, he is passionate about ART in any form. He writes, he makes films, he taught himself the flute and loves the harmonica. He did a short film for a project for a school there named Lord Byron School and he used the brilliant idea of using Lord Byron in the film. It's relaxing, creative and makes you want to just lie on the beach and breathe and ponder beauty in all forms both literature, nature and of course the beauty of people. Enjoy it.
Can you tell we are related ?? Beautiful, especially for anyone who loves beauty and the harmonica.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
