2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.

Remember when?

2017....  a year few of us will forget.

Could we see a replay of such a busy season?

Yes, it's very possible.

In 1886 before satellite imagery......

... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.

We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.

And know September had multiple storms too.

3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886

 Storm #5 

8/15 Hispaniola

8/20 Indianola

Storm #6

8/19 Jamaica

8/21 Cuba

8/22 Nassau

Storm #7

8/20 TS forms near Bermuda

Becomes a Cat 3... 

Impacts George Bank

Vessels lost, ship damage.

Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.

Landfalls overlap.

Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5

Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas

Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 

Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.

Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season

1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.

Note that all 3 of these seasons...

...look similar when glancing at the maps.

Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.

We went during a rain storm yesterday.

 A food Lion in Raleigh.

Extremely clean.

Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.

Employees had masks and gloves on...

...so did the customers.

Publix moved into North Carolina.

Many transplanted Floridians live here.

As much as I love Publix... not as clean.

At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.

My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..

... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.

They are limiting popular non-perishables.

Yeah that happened.

We are stocked... not going out for a while.

Well, for walks and exercise maybe.

But not shopping any time soon.

Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......

....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.

Every trip to the store by one extra thing.

Because I can't imagine how people will shop...

... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.

With proper social distancing....

...and many items already gone.

It won't be pretty.

Prepare early........

... you can use non-perishables anytime.

That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.

Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.

Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.

Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.

I buy it, use it sparingly.

Lasts, great bread but expensive.

The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......

...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.

While they were spared hurricanes....

...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.

A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 

Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 

Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!

October.... Storms. Watching Tropics Still (Caribbean Convection) Noreaster NoName Hybird Storm ...Snow Storm in Dakotas... Santa Ana Winds in California. Pick Your Poison & Keep Watching and a Musical Buffet

Good Morning.

Welcome to October.

A crazy quilt of wild weather.

#tropics #seasons collide in #October #summer #fall #winter all on the board State Fair, #Halloween or shop for the #Holidays climatology says watch convection in the Caribbean https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS pic.twitter.com/OlNwxg8A55

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) October 10, 2019

You can see where my interest is tropically speaking.

Watching the Caribbean, deep down there.

Stormy weather in the Atlantic.

Gotta tell you to a Miami girl that sounds normal.

But this supposedly is a huge event.

In Raleigh the sun is coming up quietly...

...through the pines hints of color.

Drop of lavender in the pale blue... 

Carolina blue sky.

You can't see the lavender but it was there....

...because smart phone corrects it.

And tired of fighting with it so...

...close your eyes and imagine.

Now open them and keep reading ;)

As for weather today... 

And oddly to me the big story is in California.

Why you ask?

Because before this Miami girl moved to Carolina..

... I lived in California a long time.

And October there means Santa Ana winds.

And they are forecast today to be strong.

So strong they cut parts of the power grid.

Yes, you heard that right.

That way there's less sparks.

Less sparks means less fires.

Fires fanned with winds of up to 60 MPH.

That's strong tropical storm force winds.

Been there, seen it.....

...watched a whole countryside go up in flames.

Flames blowing in a wind storm.

So as for those traffic lights....

... treat them a 4 way stop.

Stay on the freeway...

Anyway back to the tropics.

The forecast for the impacts to the NE...

...definitely verified.

Nothing tropical or subtropical or extratropical.

Just go with the early Noreaster tag.

The 1st #noreaster of the season across southeast MA with gusts so far 54 MPH on Nantucket and 41 MPH here in #Plymouth = high surf.
With the storm stalled it's going to last through Friday night. pic.twitter.com/G5mFcTiMvr

— Mike Seidel (@mikeseidel) October 10, 2019

I feel like I can hear the big wild storm forecast melting...

...in the dark like that cake in MacAarthur Park in LA.

The storm is staying out at sea as forecast.

But still there are strong tides and big waves.

If you have a boat at the coast you're concerned.

Otherwise it's a Noreaster only in name.

Strong wind... no snow. 

No named Storm.

Moving on.

Seriously.... if you want to read all about.

You need to leave the NHC main screen.

And cut and paste the address they give.

For the North Atlantic High Seas Forecast.

https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

I don't mean to complain just pointing out the obvious.

In 2019 why can the NHC not have a link to click?

I mean do they want you to click or not really?

Has to be the only site online that doesn't have...

...clickable links in 2019.

The system is offshore....

...then the cold front "Aubrey"

Swoops in and sweeps it out to sea.

Lots of warnings up far out at sea.

Lot's of warnings out West.

And then there's Aubrey in the middle.

If you care there's the link to click.

Aubrey, as TWC calls it, is on the move.

Ice, snow, wind, winter...oh my.

They showed a reporter scraping ice...

...off a tree bark just now.

Okay... I guess that happens out there in October.

Actually it's very cool in it's way.

(Wondering what the B named storm is?)

I'm a big winter fan myself.

But as for the tropics....

We are watching the Carib for late season development.

Watching the fronts as they move....

 from the A storm to the B storm

Winter storms dipping down or ....

are they sliding West to East?

We as in "team tropics" 

That's strong convection down there.

Colorful, worth watching.

Models are prone to flip flop.

Best to watch the show in real time.

Good link to historic hurricanes.

Many forget the old ones....

.... some of the worst ever.

The Great #Hurricane of 1780 is the deadliest on record in Atlantic, killing over 22,000 from Oct 10-15. #wxhistory https://t.co/cP68NMP37y pic.twitter.com/MSmgIUJLXf

— Day In WX History (@weather_history) October 10, 2019

I'm going to be honest with you....

...my gut tells me something will form.

It's a climo thing and this pattern.

But models show really nothing.

Well the EURO shows nothing.

The GFS tries to spin something up...

...loses it, spins it up again.

Nothing to write home about.

Or go long in the blog.

Another link for you is below:

https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

If your area is colored in you may want to click.

October is just that time of year, you can get anything you want at the local mall or a good Chinese Buffet. Isn't it funny when you go to those huge decorated restaurants and they have an area with sushi in one corner, Chinese dishes in another and pizza and onion rings in another... something for everyone! October brings snow to Mt. Rushmore, fires to California, warm weather to Florida and a taste of fall in the Carolinas as New England gets a taste of winter. It's like a trip to your local Mall, yes I still go to Malls. I'm old school and according to every test I have ever taken on Facebook I "grew up in the 80s in California" so I'm still doing the Mall though I order more on Amazon than actually buy things at Macys. But a recent trip to Crabtree Mall in Raleigh showed me stores decorated for Halloween, the Christmas Stores are up and running and Macys China department has been filled with Christmas Trees in every color and design. Bathing suits are on sale, fall sweaters are on sale and they have not yet marked down the Fake Fur that is going to be huge this winter. Something for everyone...  Tropical smoothies next to that booth that sells candy cane chocolate chips, cheese and meat to give as gifts for the holidays. Oh and the 2020 Calendars are on sale at Barnes and Noble. Hard to remember what month it is in this sort of any season you want time of year.

As for me I'm caught in the midst of the Jewish Holidays going away for part of them and planning to be here for the rest of them. Looking forward to seeing old friends and a more better taste of fall as I go up the road a bit to where it's definitely a bit colder. Note to self: Find the pink sherpa I bought at Victoria Secret's last year because I bought it last year on sale and love it and last night I found the boots so... I'm set for colder weather. But I'm still watching the tropics. It's not over til it's over and that mix of fronts on the move and convection in the Caribbean often brings forth a storm to remember. But only time will tell. Anyone can hype it but unless you're using a Ouija board right now... it's not set to go but definitely could happen. My Grandma Mary was a good Southern Girl who deeply respected the Ouija Board and knew to stay away from the Voodoo Queens she learned about when living briefly in New Orleans.  Keep watching.

Going to leave you with an old favorite song.

One from my California days.

Praying the fires aren't bad.

Hoping winter comes early.

And watching the tropics.

Have a great day.

I'm going to pack today...

...so I can repack tonight and tomorrow.

Because that's me.

Yeah.... October is like that song.

You just go with it....

...even if it doesn't make much sense.

You string along... 

...watching Caribbean.

And singing songs...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Need to buy shoes. Really. 

Can I go from sandals to boots?

I have winter high heels.

But don't I need real shoes?

Going to work on this today.

Read in old notes yeterday....

....the Ps is always important.

Notes I made to myself.

Not sure why a song that was called bad....

...was recorded by everyone from Richard Harris..

....to Frank Sinatra... to Donna Summers.

to Waylon Jennings.

I always loved the song.

Especially in LA... where MacArthur Park is.. 

Well the California one anyway.

I saw Richard Harris in Camelot in LA.

I saw Donna Summers at a disco in Disney there.

I saw Waylon Jennings in a club in Miami.

Waylon does a good job.

It's a break up song.

We all know that.

But it's a true life real life song.

It means to each of us...

...something different I'm sure.

Pick your poison... Waylon..

Told you October is a Buffet.

Pick your poison, enjoy the dessert.

Here's the trivia if you are still here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacArthur_Park_(song)

Explains it all or as much as anyone will say.

The Association (old group) didn't want to use it.

Saw them play as at an Oldies Place in Pasadena.

I was amazed they were still around.

It was the 80s after all in LA

PPS... God I loved that song.

Still do.... 

...in my head I'm walking down Wilshire Blvd.

Shopping for shoes... 

...and maternity clothes.

LOL LA... Discos while pregnant.

Really....

The things you loved...

...the places, the people and the music.

You love forever.

Tale of 2 Seasons. Hurricane Season Exiting & Winter Already Here and Staying.

When seasons collide.........

Trees with leaves get ice and fall down.

Football is played in the snow.

And our hurricane supplies ...

...become winter storm supplies.

Except in Florida.....

... where you can snack to your heart's content!

I'm sure I've used that phrase before but I can't think of a year that so exemplifies that saying in a meteorological way as 2018. We had a season that started early and looked as if we would have a map filled with tracks from barely there tropical storms and numerous subtropical storms. What's in a name? A name designates importance and yet it's hard to take a Tropical Storm that barely has any weather associated with it seriously ... yet it has a name and is on the map. Other weak tropical storms can intensify fast into players that take us by surprise. TWC likes to name winter storms ...they say to identify specific ones and others say it's just for hype...still it has a name and a hashtag online. Perhaps TWC got that part sooner rather than later, because if something doesn't have a name it doesn't really exist in a way that everyone can easily share information at the same time. In retrospect there was the SNOWCANE that the news channels gave a title to and splashed graphics across their screens several years ago in New York but there have been many "SNOWCANES" if you follow the New York media that loves to hype up anything and everything. Nuff said on names. So let's look at our map below.

This is preliminary as storms are reviewed by NHC.

This is from Jim Williams "End of the Year" review.

I suggest you watch it if you want a look back.

Please share it .... 

...good job by the man who was in the eye of Michael.

A look back at 2018 Hurricane Season ...

Save it to compare to next year.

I have some thoughts on that but ...

...that's a blog for another day.

Look at all those high latitude tracks.

And the longest track of all from Africa to the Carolinas.

And it's a high latitude track avoiding the cooler MDR.

Hard to even find Beryl on that map...

Remember Beryl? 

During the peak of the season we ended up with hurricanes.

Florence and Michael will be retired names.

They will go down in hurricane history.

And now we have winter that busted down our door.

Winter didn't knock gently.

Winter showed up early and refuses to leave.

The leaves on our trees are falling, clinging, falling.

The world turns below beautifully.

Look at that awesome Atlantic Gale.

Remember our old yellow circle from the NHC?

Yes it was there ....they saw it.

Yes it pulled together and swirled away..

And look at that front trying to make it through Florida.
Look at that feed across Mexico into Texas still.
Texas had nonstop no name storms ...
...now the weather is continuing into the winter.

Will that front make it through?

NOAA says YES

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

You have to click to see what happens...

Today in Miami and Broward County there's fog.

Fog usually shows up in late December.

It's early this year like everything else.

My youngest brother moved from North Miami Beach up to Broward County and it puts him closer to many places he enjoys taking sunrise pictures of ...including his backyard as he is on a small lake in the Hollywood area. I like Hollywood. I complain about Broward sometimes (sorry) but to be fair North Miami Beach is pretty much South Broward as it's so far NORTH and close to the county line. TY Park is a place my mother-in-law loved and walked every day for a year or two when she lived in a senior facility across the street from there. She was raised in upstate New York and could walk for hours staring a nature. Now she's in a rest home in Maryland taking walks around the large property there but she did love TY Park. My kids have birthday parties there for their children and picnics for get togethers. It's a great, green, beautiful, verdant park but you can't tell that from the picture above that looks as if my brother was somewhere in Paris on the Seine. 

http://www.broward.org/Parks/TopeekeegeeYugneePark/Pages/Default.aspx

That is the same park above as the fog picture I posted.

Probably close to where my brother took that picture.

Fog arrives in winter in Miami.

A few days here and there out of nowhere.

Winter came early this year everywhere.

Snow maps show the next five days.

Again Mike has these up on his site.

And some new links I noticed....

www.spaghettimodels.com

 Below is the "freeze line"
Note it goes down to the Florida Panhandle.

And today a good part of the country ...

..is covered in precipitation of some kind.

What a perfect day for Cyber Monday.

I changed my plans for today.

I'm packing up presents.

Trying to take stock of who gets what...

..and make sure I don't miss anyone.

It's a big family.......

Ordering a few things on Amazon because it's easy.

Maybe buy something for me?

Maybe... we'll see.

Will mail out stuff when the sun comes out.

And then...enjoy the cooler weather.

People who know me and know how much I love Florida also know I have come to love this time of year in the Carolinas. Dry air means I breathe better and am less prone to Summertime sinus headaches that are horrible in Miami and I have less pollen problems up here this time of year. I like the way the trees look showing off their beautiful structure and I can see the sky again! Well unless it gets down into the teens I like dressing up in leggings and short skirts over high boots or wearing a pair of jeans with an oversized soft shirt. It's one reason I loved LA in that the winter was always beautiful and storms would come through and clear out the basin and you could see the mountains in all directions including some with snow on top of them. I'm dreaming.... of Seattle but my mother dance card is filled through February with places I need to be and promises I need to keep. Lord I'd love to sneak away for a few days but it usually takes me that long to get past the long trip to Seattle to see my son and his family there and... a city I have come to love intensely.

What do you love? Is it on sale today? One of the best things about "Cyber Monday" is it's a time to load up on basics you need in life that are often on sale or sold on a 15% or 25% or even a 30% discount. Lancome Le Stylo Waterproof Black Noir is on my list as it's a staple in my life. There's a pricey item I buy once a year from Dior that blurs the lines between my eyes so I look way younger than I am (good genes really.... though Estee Lauder gets credit as does Drunk Elephant ....Google it if you need) so yeah I'm a bit boring as I'm not buying any big tag items this year. I'll be looking for deals on products I use often around the house (not just make up) and I'm decorating for Chanukah that also comes early this year. 

Happy shopping and stocking up on that dream item or those things you use often that you need at discount. Good luck with presents (think gift cards....they work well for older kids and adults) and as my father used to say "you gotta do what you gotta do" and so I suggest you do it with love and happiness and joy. I got some good Hungarian genes from him ;) (and Lithuania/Baltic too) and yes go for the Ancestry discounts today if you want to find any surprises under your tree in a few weeks ;) Thanks for reading this mish mosh today of deep information and run on sentences and thanking my meteorological friends who have enriched my life in so many ways over the years... Still going strong as the song goes... 

Ha... weather is on sale this year.

https://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/gifts/stocking-fillers

For Fishing...

For Sue...

For you know who you are....

And for those of you ready for some holiday music.... it's the most wonderful time of the year!

Enjoy Andy Williams singing of the most wonderful time of the year from 1963 a wonderful year in that a few of my closest friends are born that year (good people) and a younger brother who is in Greece somewhere and hey you can buy his book as a stocking stuffer or if you are looking to read poems and prose while sitting on the toilet this book is for you. If you read it you'll understand that as he has some fascination with broken toilets in his fantastic collage art. Yes, we are all originals in our family, different as night and day and winter and summer yet we have one thing that binds us... creativity oozing out of our veins and whether we are authors or photographers we are always looking through the world through the eyes of an artist.  

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1980911312

I don't make this up... see one of his recent works. His work is deep, devilish and delightful depending on his mood. Check it out on Amazon if you know someone who likes to read new authors and has a good sense of humor and an appreciation of poetry, prose and the arts.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates on breaking weather of all kinds.

(no Ps... nope, nada, nooooooo)

Turning the Calendar Moving Towards the End of Summer. Looking Towards August and September? Sales, Amazon Prime. Shop for Hurricane Supplies

I just want to put a few thoughts in your heads today and maybe you will think on them a bit more seriously. I know it's hot in many places and it's been hot for a while now and it feels like the heat is never going to end. It's going to end and even now as we can see cool fronts have made it down into the Carolinas enough for the heat to mitigate and go out on a late night ice cream date. A few weeks back there was no time or hour that anyone wanted to leave the AC behind to venture outside. Day by day we get closer to Fall as we have turned the corner on the longest day of the year and are working our way back. Nothing says "summer" on it's way out than the reality that "Summer Stuff" is on sale more than 50% off in every department store.

You must have wondered why I put shorts, beach bags and sandals on my page vs the regular snapshots of the usual suspects in the tropics. There aren't many usual suspects today as Post Tropical Subtropical Storm Beryl exits our side of the world. The NHC really loves to give tags to things vs just calling it Beryl as a storm by any name is still a storm. But it's always good for officials in responsible branches of the government to be picayune about the details. Models play with a wave that will exit Africa and another model shows development down in the deep Caribbean. Closer to home the reality of that aforementioned cool front that died off the coast tossing us up a surprise is more likely as shear in the Caribbean has so far been a killer to development in that part of the basin.

You can see the fronts moving down.

The dry spotted dusty zone.

Usual suspects are there.

But 2018 has been filled with surprises.

Expect the surprises to continue.

And now is a very good time to look down the road.

To look down the tropical road.

www.crownweather.com

This map above was put out by Crown Weather and it's a great map to think on. Add in the reality of this season so far and understand as tropical waves get more viable and the Bermuda High gets stronger the future tracks of storms will be closer to the coast than Beryl and Chris.

In theory the following storms will follow the same similar pattern set by the early storms of 2018, however they will come closer to the coast and more likely flirt with landfall; actually they will most likely make landfall somewhere. The high latitude constant development of severe weather goes on and I'm concerned about the Mid Atlantic area to the NE being at a higher risk than normal. Normally around August 15th we really have to watch the Atlantic. I believe we are running a bit ahead of schedule so we should start watching the Atlantic in about 10 days or so (remember I said surprises happen) to see some subtle shifts as we transition into the real part of the Hurricane Season. 

So if you have deals on Amazon Prime this week or your local store is selling off it's summer supplies such as BBQ grills that might come in handy if you lose power as they want to bring in their fire pits for the backyard... you might want to think on your priorities. Nothing says we are getting closer to the Hurricane Season and it's distant cousin NFL Football than sales on summer going at up to 70%.

Make good use of the quiet time, enjoy what's left of the summer and remember to stock up on hurricane supplies as you may need them as we get closer to September.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Crown Weather is one of the best, most reliable and least likely to hype any weather event, yet at the same time properly prepares you for what might impact you region. It's a paid site unlike www.spaghettimodels.com but he goes deep into discussion on what really is happening in the tropics and otherwise.

I'm not going anywhere but it's a great song and very good to remember. Because tropical systems may be unwanted guests come September.

Snow Seattle & Maine & Places In Between... Will the South Get a Winter Storm? Stay Tuned...

Seattle won the Snow Raffle.

A rare Christmas snow blanketed Seattle last night.

How beautiful is that?

I have a daughter-in-law who does not love snow as she lived for many years in Postville Iowa. It gets really cold there in the winter.... as it currently warmed up today to 5 degrees!  But she has a father who lives there and 2 children on vacation who are going to go see their grandfather and see what a real winter is really like again. They grew up in Iowa, however they have been living in Seattle where it is ironically quite warm considering it's at a far latitude North. Palm trees grown in Seattle and there is a nearby rain forest in the mountains; the pine trees though make it look like a warm Winter Wonderland all year round. This year.......she got snow thrown in her face before going to Postville that looks more like the Ukraine this time of year than America. My son loves snow and most types of "weather" so he's over the top to see Seattle covered in snow!

A good video of Postville in the Winter. If you want snow you can usually bet it is there in the winter, however it's a long ride to get there from any airport. Don't say I didn't warn you! And..dress warm!

That's how I dress when in Postville...

But I'm in North Carolina.

Wishing for snow.

Or some sort of winter weather...

Trying not to buy too much online today.

Had Indian food for lunch ;)

So Maine and Washington State got their snow wishes today and places in the MidWest saw snow.

Later this week the Snow Fairy takes a vacation to the South!

How far South is a question.

And who gets snow vs freezing rain?

Yet to be determined.

Stay tuned!

I hope you all got what you wanted today and if not it's probably on sale somewhere online for free shipping and 20% off so treat yourself to whatever you want the most! I know a few friends who have their new grandchildren this year so they are in 7th Heaven ;) and I know a newborn baby going home this afternoon from the hospital so I know quite a few happy people today. One of my best friends had her 2nd Great Grandchild today and no she's not that old... but she started young and so did her daughter and her daughters ;) A pic of me and Malka celebrating the engagement of my son just a few years ago. Love her. 

Family can be awesome....

.....but they can also drive you crazy sometimes.

Friendship is golden!

If you have a good friend... you're blessed.

I'll be back tomorrow with weather info.

News on the next big storm.

TWC is on all day talking about weather.

So.... you can bet I'm watching carefully.

Check back for more As the Weather World Turns.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Leaving you with a song a mutual friend loved ... he used to call Malka "Blondie" so here's to friendship and love.