Updated. Invest 97L in Atlantic. Hurricane Man On Air Tonight! Sunday in the Tropics. Humberto... Atlantic Wave with High Probabilities ... GOM Rainmaker. October in the Wings...

Quick reminder...
Tonight, HurricaneMan
on air in America...
..a hit overseas.
Tune and see what makes him tick...




Hurricane Michael...
...later in the blog I'll talk on October Major Hurricanes.

2 PM Invest 97L

I was playing on Instagram @bobbistorm...

...saw Dubuh posted this.

Been waiting while watching Fins on TV.

Not sure how 97L will end up.

Fins losing zero to 16 NE

30% in the 2 day.

80% in the 5 day.

Now Invest 97L

Models will be out later tonight.

I'll check back later and post.

Baby picture below.

1st official Selfie from NRL..

Wide view tells the story.

Going to take a while.

Much can change.

Give it some time

Humberto Stage Right....

GOM Rain Stage Left.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike has lots of loops up for you...

... Mike is Great.

1. Humberto.

2. GOM Rain.

3. 70% Red Area in Atlantic.

4. Climatology Hurricane Wise.

5. Sorry on Twitter issues last night.

(or any typos .. I'm wiped)

6. October Hurricanes...Watch Out.

7. Have a good weekend.

8. Rant at end.

9. Great song ;)

Oh and Sorry on typos.

My daughter was released this morning ...

...from the hospital.

Thanks for prayers.

Currently Bermuda in the Cross Hairs.

Hopefully that changes.

Discussion below.

Or salient part of it...

...you can read it at NHC site.

Microwaves satellite fixing positions.



Use this loop above when reading this blog.
Thanks.

Models agree it finds a weakness in the ridge.

Strengthens.

Moves rapidly after that into the North Atlantic.

No surprise there.

You can go back and read this blog...

...since April.

A close up of this season is shown below.

Close up of the East Coast.

Disturbances, depressions and storms....

...struggle close in, then develop.

Then look better in the North Atlantic.

And the beat goes on.

It's an unfinished map from Wikipedia.

Updated as time goes by... 

... we will evaluate it in the rear view mirror.

Back to Humberto today.

Note intensity forecast shows a Cat 2 most likely..

...flirting with Cat 3 somewhere up in the N Atlantic.

Been an odd year.

Let's look at the tropics today below.

Note the North Atlantic steals your attention still.

Huge swirl with much color across a wide area.

North to South.

...it takes up most of the North Atlantic.

Humberto about to go Hurricane...

...is the weaker of the thee blobs close in.

But it has the name and it will develop more.

Dogged by ULLs and well so was Dorian.

Humberto close up...

Northern circle is Humberto's circulation.

The area to the SE is it's convective mass.

It's not well put together now...

...yet it seems to have found a way to develop anyway.

Once it jettisons or wraps that moisture...

...moves up into Atlantic it should look like this.

Tuesday from www.windy.com

So check back Tuesday and see if the  models nailed it.

Close in ... the Gulf of Mexico has a an area being watched.

Monitored would be the right word.

Given low odds but odds.

It's a rainmaker. No matter how you cut it.

And it developed out of an ULL that dogged Humberto.

Considering this year when we had Barry...

...nothing normal seems to be forming there.

Yet... that's good because the water is very warm.

Should anything develop the water is very warm.

Back on Thursday I began watching it.

Studying it, thinking on it.

Friday I spoke on it here and online.

What is interesting to remember today is...

... Humberto is going out to sea.

This area is moving over land.

With a huge amount of RAIN.

WEATHER.

Rain along the coast.

With a name or TD status or without...

...it's a lot of rain over a long period of time.

So last year this happened often.

No name systems dogged Texas...

...wasn't until Michael really that trouble hit the GOM.

Small weak systems, Invests... rain.

October is coming and I'm concerned.

October is a mean time of year.

Monsters and Ghosts.

Perfect Storms.

Sandy that crashed into Cuba...

...then moved up the coast.

Matthew.

Mitch.

Wilma.

Michael.

Joaquin

Grace.

Sandy.

October always brings us issues.

We are at September 15th today.

Remember that.

When speaking on October remember this image.

Torn and tattered Hurricane Flag Flying...

Great video with Jim Cantore and John Hope.

Keep that in mind.

October can get scary...

The area of convection in the SW Carib...

.. moved into the Epac.

Down the road they generally move North...

..drawn North by fronts.

Climo.

Carib N to GOM or FL or East Coast.

A strong wave with 70% odds is in the Atlantic.

If it develops fast it could be a fish storm.

Or not... as it could crawl West.

Too soon to tell the tale.

Mimic image says much on that.

I'll talk on it Monday.

So that's the tropics today.

Xs and Os..

More coming according to the models.

Get used to it.

Below are some thoughts on Twitter.

And the last 24 hours...

You don't need to read it.

If you want to... 

.. it's your call.

I am truly Independent.

Liberal on some issues...

..conservative on others.

I don't fit into one party.

Like many of us here...

...and I do like politics.

So sorry I made 1 tweet and...

...was attacked online.

I don't care about me...

I can take care of myself.

But for anyone looking for hurricane info..

...sorry you had to sift through that.

Once again ... Cranky is right :(

???

Have a wonderful Sunday.

Back to business on Monday.

Thanks for reading and following.

BobbiStorm

(song at end...if ur here for music)

Lastly what I need to do is really apologize to people following me online not because I sometimes tweet on something other than weather late on a Saturday Night but because apparently I don't believe Cranky enough about how horrible the climate is on Twitter and other social medias such as Facebook by people attacking anyone who offers an opinion without knowing anything about them or who they voted for or vote for or support acting like a lynch mob or a group that is in line more with Fascism than Democracy gone crazy. I like getting news online and I like speaking to friends and sharing here. But people are being used as tools that is true (see Cranky's long rant a while back) by groups and bullying is never good. 

I have a friend Tom who lived in Key West in a South Seas looking mansion with a huge guest room and a pool the size of a house lot and built by the original people who marketed Key West shirts. I had the key, the code and spent more time there over time in that guest house than he did as he traveled and took care of his mother.  Eventually he sold it :( and moved away. Good guy. He said I approach everything the way I do tropical analysis and he's right, I do.. he knows me well. I review options in a detached manner offering possible solutions and wondering on the outcome. Euro is King but I watch the GFS and the ICON I am not owned by any one model nor one political party. I vote for the person I feel is the best fit for the job at the end of the day in early November as hurricane season begins to slip away. Even if I don't like them I vote based on experience and the job. I voted for Hilary, it's a long story feel free to ask me privately but it's old news. I also thought Hilary should have taken Castro or Warren as a running mate as that move would have brought more to the ticket and quite frankly Hilary a very smart women (know people who worked with her and were blown away by her intelligence compared to Bill) made poor decisions in her campaign and despite being smart is not as likable as Bill. Just is what it is. She should have worked harder in states she needed to pick up and she should have taken a better running mate. And Trump has his fans and they truly like him and support him and therefore the other party needs a very likable, smart candidate if they hope to beat him. 

I follow many politicians that were active in the debates and are running and watch to see what they have to say and what they don't say. I made one comment and minions attacked me all night because they didn't agree with me and don't know anything about me. Bullying is big online, I'm used to it and Cranky is right on that. Nothing new under the sun.

I believe in rules and a person is proven innocent unless proven guilty. An allegation be it rape or anything else is an allegation and you don't hang someone based on that. An example being I voted for Bill Clinton despite many allegations against him from his days in Arkansas and throughout his candidacy. And that didn't stop me from thinking he was the better candidate for the job. As or Monica and leaving Arafat in the Rose Garden... it is what it is and if you want to study history study the sexual life of LBJ in the White House or JFK or Eisenhower's relationship with his chauffeur. Nothing new under the sun. I guess I have low expectations when it comes to men being able to keep it where it belongs and they got away with it forever... and now the climate has changed and anyone can be named or attacked anytime by an accusation and that's scary also. But still the rule of law exists. And we are less than a year away from our next Presidential Election and I have heard MANY meteorologists say they are going to stay offline next hurricane season worrying on the negative climate that will only get nastier.

The point of a democracy is we get a vote, we don't have a King for life and we can vote someone out if we are unhappy. Many people are unhappy, many people are happy. Trump fires people often and that's no surprise because as Joe Biden said last election he made his career on TV by firing people. That said... it's time to move on and find someone new to run than trotting out the old guard as safe candidates. Obviously Trump wasn't safe... yet he won the nomination and he won the election. What will happen this NEXT year? I don't know. Can't say. Watching. 

But when people are attacked nonstop online it's mob rule and that leads to Fascism not democracy and sadly the Internet and it's various social media platforms lead to that behavior of late. I hope it changes. Though not being her biggest supporter (I believe my nephew likes her) I think Tulsi deserves to talk as I do Pete and Amy and others because as Hilary said it takes a village. But the village mob should not rule ..... democracy rules and I believe in America.

So after a long week when my daughter was in the hospital in NY since ?? Wednesday morning for an allergic reaction that looked as if she had been stung by a mob of bees and we don't even know what for sure caused it as the small hospital in upstate NY doesn't have an allergist on duty she was released this morning and has to go to an allergist and I hope she doesn't have a repeat attack and her breathing is better though not as good as it should be. She had asthma as a child but it's been an issue lately. I asked Dave Schwartz once why he didn't chase on the road and stayed in the studio and ... seems he had asthma. I have asthma (no not related) and it's very mild but sometimes something can cause an allergic reaction and it can be severe. So I've been quiet and not totally myself and tired last night I made one tweet directly to the person to explain why I was unfollowing and was attacked by his and other people's followers assuming I'm a die hard republican I guess or some deplorable and the truth is That is deplorable. Bullying is deplorable.  So I'm sorry. I won't talk politics again though I may tweet on Ice Cream, Music or Make up.. and I don't have other names for different topics I'm @bobbistorm whose first love was ....both ... acting/drama/dance and politics and I was raised in politics as my Uncle was the head of the steering committee for the democratic party and I was babysat on the road by people holding signs up at intersections (really) and once got a week or two off school to help manage McGovern's campaign in Miami with an old boyfriend who is now a politician in Florida... McGovern won Miami so despite losing that happened and we worked hard to make it happen.

I love politics it's gotten ugly out there. That's sad. I'm sorry I may have to make another name to talk online .. I guess I understand now why some people use ten different names on Twitter.. oh my goodness. And thanks for following me and thanks for praying for my daughter who left the hospital this morning and is attending some EMT class she signed up for to part of a team of women working EMT together. Thank you. 

The next six weeks will most likely produce at least one more major hurricane and it could be headed towards land. Florence hit Carolinas as a weakened hurricane but it couldn't pull out the way Matthew tried to but still made Landfall. The problem with Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes is that if one forms and intensifies... someone gets hit and with the current set up of hot water and fronts dipping down that's a recipe for disaster that I pray doesn't come together this year. 

As for 2020 I'll worry on 2020 next year. And, I'll vote for the candidate I think is best suited for the job of being President whether I like them or I don't, whether others make accusations and whether he fires people or acts respectfully because I think we've lost that ability sadly because of the climate online... I'm more worried today on Climatology and the rest of the Hurricane Season. As Dabuh says "as it was in the beginning is how it shall be in the end..."

Both Dabuh and Cranky are great to follow. Would hate any good mets staying offline next hurricane season as I learn so much from both of them... always; we all do. They didn't specifically say that but others have said that... knowledge is power especially when it comes to weather!

 Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Sorry for any typos... I"m tired, going out for brunch and I smell Avocado Toast down the road.