Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Invest 95L Forms Close IN ...Home Grown. Near FL ..GOM Threat? Quiet Peak of the Season. A Look Back at Hurricane Hazel. And Later in the Week Trouble Waiting in the Wings. Calm Before the Storm. Use This Time Wisely and Give Charity to Bahamas PLEASE!


Hot off the Press.
Invest 95L designated...
CLOSE IN.
HOME GROWN.
Just adding this in to the updated blog below.
As I said.... the area to watch is close in.
Will it form?
Where will it go?
Stay tuned.

Brief update on the tropics Tuesday afternoon. Nothing is forming currently, but there are areas being watched that have some potential. Despite the early high hopes for Invest 94L nothing much has happened and on every tropical update from the NHC they have walked it down bit by bit to a yellow alert being monitored for future development. There's a wave that came off of Africa but it currently in a sheared environment on all sides especially on the North where a cinnamon roll sort of feature is spinning beautifully. Beautiful in that it's not a hurricane but spins like one and until the wave moves further west into a better environment it's not going to do anything more than Invest 94. Yes models do show a cyclone forming moving West into the Caribbean and then the track differ greatly as to where it goes next. Closer in we have a small problem that could become Home Grown and it currently has higher odds than the twin waves out in the Atlantic.


Why aren't the waves in the Atlantic close to Africa spinning? Because something else is spinning out there and shear is high until the waves move further West. It's as if they are being harrassed by a large black/gray spinning wheel creating shear. Can't make this stuff up, nature is awesome.

Models that show development from the Atlantic.
Moving towards the Caribbean.


Got those models there.
Tried to compress them for you...
..details this far out aren't important.
Westbound and then what?

Again this tweet shows the issue.
It has issues...
Red is a no go for development.
The new wave off Africa is squished.
Stuck there with a huge amount of shear to the North.
Shear to the South.
It needs to move West past the shear zone.







And the GFS and the EURO don't agree.
what else is new?


Euro shows not much but something.
The GFS does the return of Dorian.


Currently it can't out run the swirling shear.

So now we look at the area closer to South Florida forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico; note the Icon model a new favorite of many forms a system off the SE coast ...small, petite and putting anchor there so until something forms don't sell the farm and evacuate.


That's odd.
Note it also has the Atlantic Wave westbound.
But unlike the GFS and the EURO...
it shows nothing in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Euro moves west towards Nola...
The GFS hangs out closer to the E GOM.
Nothing is there now except an area being watched.
And the area has a nice "look" to it...
...but it needs more than good looks to get a name.

You can use www.windy.com to play this model game.


See neither show anything huge.
Enhanced rain.


You can watch it in real time.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Generally a very quiet tropics today.

I had an amazing talk with a lady today...
...about Hurricane Hazel.
Hurricane Hazel hit NC in 1954.
It's hard to find people who remember and...
...go long on detail.
Another blog discussion for another day.
She was in 3rd grade.
She went to school ...because they did that then.
The hurricane came in earlier than expected.
The teachers tried to keep the kids away from the windows.
Moved them to the hallway.
Trees were twisting, the wind was howling.
So the little small town school decided........
........to send them home early on the school bus.
Down Country Roads... 
The bus had to drive around down wires.
Pines were snapping, trees were dancing wildly.
Imagine being a little girl on a bus in a hurricane.
When she got home and off the bus..
..the smell of pine filled the air.
And pines trees were falling everywhere.
They lost 5 pecan trees...
...one landed on the house.
We aren't talking down by the coast...
... way inland.


We discussed Hazel often when Matthew was retracing it's track.
But luckily Matthew turned back...



Today may be the peak of the season.
Note what Phil says...and he knows.
In South Florida the peak is Mid October.
South Florida is prone to being hit from the SW...
in October as hurricanes catch a ride with a cold front.


A good video on Hurricane Hazel.
Be thankful there are no hurricanes today.
Give to the victims of Dorian I beg you...

www.redcross.org

or a charity you trust.

See below...
No hurricanes today..



This is our side of Planet Earth on September 10th
Thankfully there isn't anything really going on today.
We are still in Post Dorian mode.....
Atmosphere like the rest of us needs to rest a bit.

30 Years ago Gabrielle was moving around...
...and Hurricane Hugo was coming off the coast of Africa.

The Weather Channel this morning posted this ....
...It is the statistical peak of the hurricane season.
We are not currently 'busy" but it's a great image.
In the old days before Invests.....
...we would have said:
"Wow, tropics are quiet today"
We only have one Invest currently.
Thank God.
Take this "quiet time" to prepare....
...and to give charity to Bahamas.



Tropical Storm Gabrielle is in the North Atlantic.
Invest 94L for now is center stage.
It has convection and a weak circulation.
A wave closer to Florida is important...
..as it may get into the Gulf of Mexico.
And it may develop a bit there.
Models show the new wave off Africa....
...will become a Hurricane.
Calm Before the Next Storm today.


That's not a busy tropics.
It will become busy again soon.
Use this time wisely.

Actually Area 2 in the short term...
...has higher chances than 1 and 3.
Go figure.





So what do these models really show us?
Long range models will show you ...
It devours Florida...South Florida.
It smashes into the Carolinas.
Big surprise really long range....
It's West Bound.
It's not a low rider.
It's not a high rider.
That means it is a player....
...in our part of the world.
So watch it.
94L and the new wave.
Whether they consolidate together.
Or become separate entities it's that easy.

I talk hurricanes with my kids.
Obviously........
Last night before going to bed...
..I read this message from my son.
Because that's how we do things in Miami.
Living in Paradise has a price....
..and models randomly destroy it 10 days out.
And sometimes Andrew or Irma comes our way.


By the way he's very good.
Other models show other landfalls.
Warning you ..take them with a grain of salt.
And a good sense of humor.
Until you are in a 5 to 7 day window.

If you like watching devastation in ten days.
Watch the models.
Or watch videos from the Bahamas.

Here's one ... someone caught @icyclone...
...walking through the barren landscape.


Yep that's him....
Speaking of him....

When speaking on his experiences...
...you go straight to the source.
No one can tell it like him...
....and he's an awesome writer.
Not just a dude that likes to penetrate the core...
There is so much more 

So read it in your own time.
But telling you turn the lights down.
Lock yourself in a room.
Turn the phone off.
Do not let anyone interrupt you while reading it.
Let it wash over you ....
Experience the reality of it.
It's organized and well put together.
Stellar writing.



And here are two parts.
So you get a bit of a taste.
A taste of being in a Cat 5 Hurricane.


There's our Hurricane Man trying to hold the fort together.
Read the story in his words.



So what should you do today at Peak of Season?
Do a happy dance you're not getting a hurricane.
Prepare as though you may will one.
Know this is a back loaded season.
One that will go deep into October.
Hot humid days this week.
Hurricane Weather ...
Warm water all the way up to NJ NY
Despite Dorian and Gabrielle.
So pay attention and stay tuned.

In the short term models doing things in  GOM.
Stay tuned there...


By Africa the wake Dorian and Gabrielle left...
...is still there.
This isn't going to become a Hurricane leaving the coast.
But it most likely will become a hurricane.
Eventually.


Bastardi is good.
I don't care about his politics or agendas.
He is one hell of a hurricane historian.
He knows his stuff on that one.



So what I doing today?
Giving more charity...
Going out and about..
Getting back to normal a bit.
Before that normal is rearranged soon enough.

Probably wear my Calm Before the Storm eye shadow

Again ... this is what Rob put up ages ago.
At the beginning of the Hurricane Season.
He charges for access to his site.
He tweets info on Twitter.
@crownweather


With that in mind...
...and as Dabuh always says...
What goes around comes around.

Give charity...
Money honey...or time to the Red Cross

www.redcross.org


Choose your charity.... give money.
Or give your time if you got it.


Pray your neighbor never looks like that....

Help the Bahamas get through this...


They are our neighbors!
Wonderful neighbors.
Wonderful people.
It's not such a wonderful world there now.
So if Dorian didn't come to you....
....give to them please.

Thank you, 

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



Pray what comes around is not Hugo.



posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:59 AM

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home