TS IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL!! Previously Invest 98L Tropical Storm Heads to Texas TD 10 Forms in Atlantic Humberto King of the Tropical Road.
More headlines from the NHC
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND
OH what a day it's been...
I want to go back here to explain how this happens when before late last night there was no official discussion on this area even though I went long on it for days. I was taught and taught by the best that sometimes when convection gets trapped in an Upper Level Low it can work it's way down to the surface. Always drove me crazy as sometimes it happens and other times not, hard to say and after a while you get a feel for the way the water vapor loop as well as the set up to see it might happen but you feel as if you are going out on a limb when there is no model support for what you are seeing going on and sometimes you have to go with what you know can happen. It's at least worth pointing it out and saying there is no model support and I did.
Much going on in the #tropics. Will update the blog around 4 but currently we have much potential but no named #TropicalStorm #Humberto that may change soon. Stay tuned. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa even loop I like. Turn sound up also se Carib Hmn pic.twitter.com/l7D4t4DcLj— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 13, 2019
I don't like making videos.
But I wanted to show the water vapor loop.
So I did it.
(then felt worried as again no model support)
I posted images of what looked like a Black Hurricane.
Inside the otherwise dry air.
And made note that in the loop you could see..
... moisture getting trapped inside the ULL
I noted that the moisture was coming from Humberto
And the thing with these ULLs that work their way down..
...to the surface is...
They can spin up very fast.
And historically that part of the GOM
Near Texas Coast...
...based on the shelf of the GOM..
things spin up fast...
...things intensify fast.
At Landfall.
So I felt it was better yesterday AM...
...to raise it to an Invest.
Also because some models show 18 inches of rain.
Easy to ignore those but still...
...that bayou area floods.
Things happen fast in the tropics.
In real time.
As we learned today.
Mike on Facebook Live said today...
... much has happened this year in real time.
Well he used his words..
He talks long.
I write long.
So I hope that helps understand..
...what just happened.
Headline from NHC
Imelda makes Landfall
Near Freeport Texas
Tropical Storm IMELDA forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Making Landfall in TEXAS
Oops.... not a Depression anymore.
Tropical Depression 11 has just formed.
A BULLETIN was sent out.
Tropical Storm Warnings Hoisted.
Tropical Depression 10 has formed.
NHC putting out a package at 11 AM.
As I mentioned below....
... that was pretty much a done deal.
And look at that ... TD 10 already has a follower!
Cone looks very familiar.
Hopefully it will go out to sea like the others.
But way too soon to say for now..
...so continue watching to your ESE.
It's Hurricane Season.
Humberto center stage.
98L getting brighter.
Almost more red there than in Humberto.
Humberto intense but running a bit dry.
Good news on Humberto ...
..new cone misses Bermuda.
A WIN WIN there!
Wanted to post this beautiful video.
Mark is actually going to Bolivar in TX
For 98L (think about it)
This is why our beaches in Carolinas are loved.
Took the quadcopter up for a look at the waves coming in from distant hurricane Humberto this morning just before sunrise. pic.twitter.com/FJGpyM4I6N— Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) September 17, 2019
beautiful view of the beach and the waves...
...from offshore Humberto.
Thanks!
And also note in the picture above....
...that wave behind TD10 is intense.
Guess we will see an Invest there...
...when they get around to it.
It's far out and closer problems face Texas.
Priorities.
98L Moving slow.
Waltzing slowly across Texas...
Going to go over things carefully today.
Choose your interest.
1. Texas Trouble as it's close in where people live. Invest 98L
2. Invest 97L soon to find it's name. Atlantic Wave.
3. Humberto... offshore, beautiful to watch spin. Bermuda..
4. Tropical Wave Train coming off Africa still.
Immediacy in time and location...
...draw our attention to Texas.
Note below Humberto off the East Coast...
... taking it's weather to Bermuda possibly.
Rain lingering over Texas.
Sabine River Valley TX/LA
Use this loop and keep this in mind
NWS said Louisiana may get more rain.
Note 98L and Humberto...
...kind of spinning in tandem.
I feel it's possible 98L leans left...
Time will tell.
Too soon to tell.
This radar loop is up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Notice the bands of rain coming onshore.
While the center..or centers stay offshore.
That's a typical Texas set up.
Multiple centers in a closed circulation.
Rain streaming onshore....
...while enough stays offshore.
So it can send more....
Rain.
Heavy rains in Bayou Land = Flooding.
The city of Houston is part of a Bayou.
It's a large metropolitan area...
... much land covered with highways.
Located in a bayou prone to flooding.
It's just a recipe for a slow disaster.
I am NOT saying this is a Harvey.
Harvey was a worst case scenario.
But it is a large area of convection spinning.
And it is slow moving over the next few days.
So it could be a mini Harvey.
And even that is a problem.
Hopefully that does not play out.
So while NHC has it at 30% chances...
...those are for development.
Not for problems.
NWS Houston writes good discussion:
Models show it moving inland slowly.
This grid is from SpaghettiModels.
Shear is low.
If any of those "hot towers" with strong convection.
Get entwined with the stronger center.
It could strengthen a bit.
But this is not about wind but about rain.
Flash Flood Potential.
Looking at a shear map below.
What's there now?
Earthnull...
The rain shield is expanding.
Before...
Currently...
My bottom line with 98L is...
Watch local media and weather for info.
NWS Houston.. has a Flash Flood Watch.
I know from my brother who lived there....
...flash floods happen before you can type "flash"
So plan accordingly.
Watch for updates.
Remember what NWS Houston said...
About more rain for Louisiana possibly.
Next up soon to be Imelda.
Well if you believe NHC 90%
Looks respectable here below.
Note it's friend following along behind it.
NRL has a map grid up on their site.
When they do that it portends upgrade expected.
Why do we care?
It's currently headed into the Islands.
It could clip the Islands as others have done.
Don't forget Dorian went through the Islands.
Then turned to the left across the Virgin Islands.
Things change in real time.
Long term models below.
Go to www.tropicaltidbits.com for models.
Yes in theory this goes off and follows Humberto.
But a few models break from the pack.
So we watch it and see where it tracks.
Earthnull shows an almost there signature.
Closed yet a bit weak of SW side.
But worthy I'd think of TD status or more.
Here's the loop of the basin.
You can see 98L 97L and Humberto.
Humberto while strong is huge.
Huge and hugely offshore.
But it has a bit of dry air in there.
And Imelda should show up soon.
Again... 98L RAIN
FLASH FLOODS possible.
Humberto....
Staring at the US ....
...then moving off towards Bermuda territory.
King of the Atlantic today.
See how they are still attached on the Mimic Loop.
Image below.
The ULL that ran with Humberto.
Still linked.
Amazing how these systems link together.
Linkage.
Theory in International Relations.
But applies perfectly to meteorology.
98L is in there below.
It actually looked more distinct yesterday.
But see it's connection to the lead wave.
Lead wave IN the Islands ..
The wave behind it.
All the way back to Africa.
Tropical Convergence Continually Flowing.
Weather is amazing.
Wave Train moving off Africa still.
Water Vapor Image below.
Pockets of moisture.
Tropical Waves.
Westbound.
My favorite blue view
Could one of those become an October Hurricane?
Possibly.
So stay tuned.
Humberto... King of the Tropical Road.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
It's National Country Day or something like that..
Incredible Special on PBS.
Been watching.
History and Music.
American Music and History.
Country Music....
...began mostly in the South.
And the South knows weather.
Hurricanes... trouble.
Love, Love Lost, Love Found.
Hurt, Heartache and Happiness.
Give it a listen...
Labels: breaking, breakingnews, Humberto, Imelda, landfall, news, season, speedy, TD10, tropicalstorm, tropics.hurricane, weather. bulletins, whoosh
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:14 AM
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