Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Miami Wins & Puts on Fantastic Super Bowl. Iowa Loses... Bets It on an App That Was Broken. Don't Need a Groundhog to Know it's Spring in the South.





What's that song?
There's got to be a morning after?
Oh Snap... it was a Disaster movie :(



Seriously they knew the App had a problem.
Iowa now has a problem.
Let's never use an App to vote okay??



Ironically everyone claimed victory last night.
The weather wasn't a problem.
Technology was a problem.
This is why I don't want to vote on my phone.
I've heard people say "we could vote by App"
Yeah right...no I don't think so.

As a weather person I get it when models mess up.
Or an App promises snow then ..no snow.
Life goes on...

Winter is in the West....
Spring is in the South.
Much rain is on the way in the SE.
And in the NE the candidates have arrived.


Don't you just hate when that happens?
You go to your favorite satellite and it's broken.
Or you wait for the results from Iowa and ... broken.

Well at least for us we change satellites.
For candidates they change states.


Jim Williams always said I should do videos.
Or maybe he said "talk"
He knows how I talk so ...
...okay he's right it's easier.
Once I got past my fear or talking...
... but basically I prefer writing.
And I love satellite imagery.



Look at that image.... that area in the Southeast is RED HOT and filled with severe weather potential and no one really needs a Groundhog to know which way the temperatures are going right now or if Spring is on the way; actually it's Spring in the South currently as flowers are in bloom. Maybe this is a February Thaw? But unless you are out in the Far West.... the winter that never really showed up is about as far away as the real facts of what happened last night in Iowa.

Again let me say I am an Independent. Yes I was raised a Democrat that has often voted Republican or Democratic depending on the election and the candidates ...though I like to party I'm not a party girl anymore. I wait and see how the election evolves and which candidates are left standing and which candidate I believe has the best chance to lead this country as November nears and Hurricane Season slows down. Yes, between now and the next Presidential Election is the 2020 Hurricane Season but for now ...in the slow season.... I go back to one of my first loves and that is politics. So I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the beginning of the real primary season and Oh My Goodness. I've never seen so many professionals paid to speak on air be totally speechless. I sat there last night going back and forth between CNN and MSNBC and oh my goodness. I don't really want to curse on my blog but yeah ...that happened ...

I kept saying during the whole Impeachment Trials "can't we just have an election??" and now I'm thinking ... maybe not. No seriously, as "Mayor Pete" said you could see for yourself what was going on at the Caucus and in my words who was hot and who was not. You could see those enthused about Warren or Amy and the Bernie people were on the floor and Yang Gang insisting they weren't going to vote for anyone but Yang (many then drifted away) and the Biden crowd was extremely thin at some of the venues yet always cheerful people would come around on the next count or the next... No, I don't think that happened. But maybe we will never know for sure and that's sad for the Democratic Party coming off of a horrendous 2016 where it was obvious they tried to skew the election towards their favorite candidate and many Bernie people felt it was stolen from him .... but we may never know for sure. But you could learn a lot from watching the various people who showed up to caucus for their favorite candidates and often hear who their 2nd favorite candidates were if they did not get enough to be viable.

Amazingly as we approached the Super Bowl on Sunday there was much talk about how the whole show would go seeing as it was held in Miami and you know all those "Because Miami" news stories on Twitter. People worried on terrorism or Coronavirus or some technological glitch happening. Would the actual game live up to it's expectations? (Yes it did!) and would the Half Time be a huge flop or would they pull it off? Yes, they did.. the two Latin Divas Nailed it swaying their hips, filled with emotion and passion holding most people mesmerized putting on one of the best Super Bowl Halftime Shows of all time. Okay, I'm from Miami and maybe I'm prejudice but I've loved Shakira since she first hit the scene. I studied dance and that includes Bollywood and Belly Dance and she is soo good as a performer. JLO is JLO an Icon who seems to transcend age being 50 years old holding her own up against a 43 year old Shakira celebrating her birthday in front of the world. Come on that's drama. And the game with the QB from Tyler Texas..... showing passion and leading his team from behind to victory!

So I never got around to blogging about the incredible football game Sunday as Monday was a blur for me as I tried to get the song out of my head and then finally gave up. I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the official start of the 2020 Presidential Election and.... well the new fancy App that they many were worried on worked about as badly as the GFS when it shows a major Cat 6 Landfall of a hurricane in Miami for a weak tropical wave rolling off of Africa in July. All of us in the weather world know how models can mess up and how really bad weather apps can be so are we really surprised? Okay, yeah I'm a bit surprised but Iowa has a history of problems. Santorum who actually once won the Iowa caucus despite the fact that they said Romney did and unable to gain any traction on that win ... we didn't find out who won until I believe the South Carolina Caucus and by that time anyone who knows anything about how hurricanes spin knows momentum is important.


It's not the first time Iowa messed up.
Both headlines above were right...
...but on different days.
Remember when.....

Trust me momentum is huge.
Whoever won or did well last night.
Would like that momentum going into NH.

So this seems to be a developing story.
I'm watching TV in the background.
Yes I watch the TV.
While watching the Twitter Feed....
....Twitter of course says "conspiracy" 
And there's great GIFS going around.
Life goes on...
CNN broke away to the Coronavirus just now.
MSNBC talking on "the process"
FOX the end of the "impeachment process"

So what can I say that I haven't said? Shakira rocks and perhaps the crew that gave you the Super Bowl without any major problems should have been in charge of the show in Iowa?

As for me I'm going to move on with my day. It's forecast to be 70 degrees in Raleigh and yes I have my sandals ready to use today and the hope for snow in Raleigh is fading into the background as I watch the never ending flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South as snow edges it's way towards Oklahoma after pounding the West that has been pounded all Winter as people in the East insist Winter didn't show up. 

As for New Hampshire .... the candidates are showing up there and the show will go on.

Stay safe... wash your hands ;) Always be prepared for severe weather.... Take it one day at a time and know that before this is over I'm sure there will be about odd story that crops up during this interesting Primary Season that collides with Spring Training and moves us day by day closer to predictions on the 2020 Hurricane Season. Seeing as the predictions for this Winter were horrible I'm not rushing to make any predictions but one thing I will remind you is that flow continues and the pattern of systems off the SE Coast continues the way it did during the Hurricane Season of 2019 except it's been winter like storms enhanced with the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 

And the beat goes on..... 






Stay tuned.
This is all a developing story in Iowa.
Weather wise... I'm going to enjoy the warm weather.
Going to Seattle later this month....
...where Winter is still holding on strong.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... my real favorite Shakira song ;)

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:06 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

TS IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL!! Previously Invest 98L Tropical Storm Heads to Texas TD 10 Forms in Atlantic Humberto King of the Tropical Road.


More headlines from the NHC

 
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND

OH what a day it's been...

I want to go back here to explain how this happens when before late last night there was no official discussion on this area even though I went long on it for days. I was taught and taught by the best that sometimes when convection gets trapped in an Upper Level Low it can work it's way down to the surface. Always drove me crazy as sometimes it happens and other times not, hard to say and after a while you get a feel for the way the water vapor loop as well as the set up to see it might happen but you feel as if you are going out on a limb when there is no model support for what you are seeing going on and sometimes you have to go with what you know can happen. It's at least worth pointing it out and saying there is no model support and I did.


I don't like making videos.
But I wanted to show the water vapor loop.
So I did it.
(then felt worried as again no model support)



I posted images of what looked like a Black Hurricane.
Inside the otherwise dry air.
And made note that in the loop you could see..
... moisture getting trapped inside the ULL


I noted that the moisture was coming from Humberto


And the thing with these ULLs that work their way down..
...to the surface is... 
They can spin up very fast.
And historically that part of the GOM
Near Texas Coast...
...based on the shelf of the GOM..
things spin up fast...
...things intensify fast.
At Landfall.

So I felt it was better yesterday AM...
...to raise it to an Invest.
Also because some models show 18 inches of rain.
Easy to ignore those but still...
...that bayou area floods.
Things happen fast in the tropics.
In real time.
As we learned today.
Mike on Facebook Live said today...
... much has happened this year in real time.
Well he used his words..

He talks long.
I write long.

So I hope that helps understand..
...what just happened.

Headline from NHC
Imelda makes Landfall 
Near Freeport Texas





 Tropical Storm IMELDA forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Making Landfall in TEXAS


(nhc still writing advisory will add it in later.)

 Oops.... not a Depression anymore.
Tropical Depression 11 has just formed.
A BULLETIN was sent out.





Tropical Storm Warnings Hoisted.




Tropical Depression 10 has formed.
NHC putting out a package at 11 AM.
As I mentioned below....
... that was pretty much a done deal.


And look at that ... TD 10 already has a follower!



Cone looks very familiar.
Hopefully it will go out to sea like the others.
But way too soon to say for now..
...so continue watching to your ESE.
It's Hurricane Season.

Humberto center stage.
98L getting brighter.
Almost more red there than in Humberto.
Humberto intense but running a bit dry.


Good news on Humberto ... 
..new cone misses Bermuda.
A WIN WIN there!

Wanted to post this beautiful video.
Mark is actually going to Bolivar in TX
For 98L (think about it)

This is why our beaches in Carolinas are loved.


beautiful view of the beach and the waves...
...from offshore Humberto.
Thanks!

And also note in the picture above....
...that wave behind TD10 is intense.
Guess we will see an Invest there...
...when they get around to it.
It's far out and closer problems face Texas.
Priorities.

98L Moving slow.
Waltzing slowly across Texas...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-pJBiNN45k


Going to go over things carefully today.
Choose your interest.
1. Texas Trouble as it's close in where people live. Invest 98L
2. Invest 97L soon to find it's name. Atlantic Wave.
3. Humberto... offshore, beautiful to watch spin. Bermuda..
4. Tropical Wave Train coming off Africa still.

Immediacy in time and location...
...draw our attention to Texas.



Note below Humberto off the East Coast...
... taking it's weather to Bermuda possibly.
Rain lingering over Texas.
Sabine River Valley TX/LA


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Use this loop and keep this in mind
NWS said Louisiana may get more rain.
Note 98L and Humberto...
...kind of spinning in tandem.
I feel it's possible 98L leans left...
Time will tell.
Too soon to tell.

This radar loop is up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Notice the bands of rain coming onshore.
While the center..or centers stay offshore.
That's a typical Texas set up.
Multiple centers in a closed circulation.
Rain streaming onshore....
...while enough stays offshore.
So it can send more....
Rain.

Heavy rains in Bayou Land = Flooding.
The city of Houston is part of a Bayou.
It's a large metropolitan area...
... much land covered with highways.
Located in a bayou prone to flooding.

It's just a recipe for a slow disaster.
I am NOT saying this is a Harvey.
Harvey was a worst case scenario.

But it is a large area of convection spinning.
And it is slow moving over the next few days.
So it could be a mini Harvey.
And even that is a problem.

Hopefully that does not play out.

So while NHC has it at 30% chances...
...those are for development.
Not for problems.

NWS Houston writes good discussion:


Models show it moving inland slowly.
This grid is from SpaghettiModels.


Shear is low.
If any of those "hot towers" with strong convection.
Get entwined with the stronger center.
It could strengthen a bit.
But this is not about wind but about rain.
Flash Flood Potential.
Looking at a shear map below.


What's there now?


Earthnull...


The rain shield is expanding.
Before...


Currently... 


My bottom line with 98L is...
Watch local media and weather for info.
NWS Houston.. has a Flash Flood Watch.


I know from my brother who lived there....
...flash floods happen before you can type "flash"
So plan accordingly.
Watch for updates.

Remember what NWS Houston said...
About more rain for Louisiana possibly.
Next up soon to be Imelda.
Well if you believe NHC 90%


Looks respectable here below.
Note it's friend following along behind it.


NRL has a map grid up on their site.
When they do that it portends upgrade expected.



Why do we care?
It's currently headed into the Islands.
It could clip the Islands as others have done.
Don't forget Dorian went through the Islands.
Then turned to the left across the Virgin Islands.
Things change in real time.


Long term models below.



Go to www.tropicaltidbits.com for models.
Yes in theory this goes off and follows Humberto.
But a few models break from the pack.
So we watch it and see where it tracks.

Earthnull shows an almost there signature.
Closed yet a bit weak of SW side.
But worthy I'd think of TD status or more.


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Here's the loop of the basin.
You can see 98L 97L and Humberto.
Humberto while strong is huge.
Huge and hugely offshore.
But it has a bit of dry air in there.
And Imelda should show up soon.

Again... 98L RAIN 
FLASH FLOODS possible.


Humberto....
Staring at the US ....
...then moving off towards Bermuda territory.


King of the Atlantic today.


See how they are still attached on the Mimic Loop.
Image below.
The ULL that ran with Humberto.
Still linked.


Amazing how these systems link together.
Linkage. 
Theory in International Relations.
But applies perfectly to meteorology.
98L is in there below.
It actually looked more distinct yesterday.


But see it's connection to the lead wave.
Lead wave IN the Islands .. 
The wave behind it.
All the way back to Africa.

Tropical Convergence Continually Flowing.

Weather is amazing.

Wave Train moving off Africa still.

Water Vapor Image below.
Pockets of moisture.
Tropical Waves.
Westbound.


My favorite blue view 


Could one of those become an October Hurricane?
Possibly.

So stay tuned.

Humberto... King of the Tropical Road.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

It's National Country Day or something like that..
Incredible Special on PBS.
Been watching.
History and Music.
American Music and History.

https://www.pbs.org/kenburns/country-music/

Country Music....
...began mostly in the South.
And the South knows weather.
Hurricanes... trouble.
Love, Love Lost, Love Found.
Hurt, Heartache and Happiness.
Give it a listen...









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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:14 AM 0 comments