Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

UPDATED Invest 91L & 92L October Storm Off the East Coast... Storm & Gale Warnings for NYC An Unraveling Mystery .. Storm With a Kick But Will It Stay Offshore?


So now we have Invest 91L and 92L
Earthnull signature shows they are closing off.

92L 



91L 


Our focus currently is 91L
Or the concept of a coastal storm.
The center may stay offshore but...
...the weather may be blasted on shore.
Look at those purples and reds for Cape Cod.
And ouch look out Long Island!


Visible of Invest 92L
A swirl or a center?
Either way this is about the weather associated with it.




Note NWS has Storm Warnings and Gale Warnings up.




A look at NYC shows the issues.
Ocean facing beaches are going to get pounded.
And the water around Manhattan will be wild.
Don't forget... Manhattan is an island.


Models... track offshore.
But the weather won't all stay offshore.


Compare and contrast with the image below.





Earlier today ...not closed off but trying. 
...below.




You need a closed low vs heavy weather.
Waiting to see what the NHC does...


Not much I can really add other than models for the most part keep this system off shore though weather may impact the beaches and areas such as Long Island that stick awkwardly out into the Atlantic. If you live in any area along the beach that is prone to flooding pay close attention to local news and weather updates.


Rain stays mostly offshore...
....well heavy crazy rain.


Our system stays parked off there.
Models in agreement for the most part.



Euro and GFS... Offshore Storm.


Kids in Miami weren't happy today.
Rained all morning nonstop.







www.spaghettimodels.com

I love the way Mike's mind works.
Models being run on the orange gumdrop in the Atlantic.
Later they will become Tutti Fruitti 
.....as they mix flavors close in.

The water vapor image below shows the parts.
Curling up Eastern Orange Swirl.
Tropical Plume of Moisture with two lemons.
And a digging serious cold system out in the Plains.
When they come together watch out.

Already windy at the Outer Banks 
(what else is new...)
And in NC I'm waiting for the lead front...
... out on the Plains people are waiting on snow.
And everyone wants to know..
Does it get a name?

I hope so as it would explain what it is....
... as Coastal Storms/Gales get hyped too much.
With fake names the media gives them.
Like SNOWCANE (I was there in NYC once...)
There are very few Perfect Storms.





Look at the same view in technicolor
My favorite colors.


My daughter worked on an art project in NY this week.
An incredible artist friend was in a contest.
To build a Sukkoth... it's basically a hut.
Jewish holiday... we build these huts and eat in them.
To remember wandering around the desert generations ago.
You know the Bible Story.. 
Red Sea, wandered around the desert then home to Israel.
But while wandering they had temporary shelters.
It's a custom to decorate them ...
...but there was a concert to build one artistically.
My daughter helped her friend.
They painted it with invisible paint.
So the walls looked one way ....
...unless you had a black light and voila.
Words and pictures appeared.



Reminded me of how weather comes together.
The elements are there clearly.
But until it comes together you don't see it...
...and when you do ... you go "WOW!"

Her friend Rachel won she's excited.
a lot of work, art takes work.

And Mother Nature is writing ....writing....
one heck of an October Storm Story.


The ongoing drama of the developing October Gale...
...off the East Coast.
Close in ... home grown trouble.
But carrying with it moisture from many places.
 Old fruit bowl from Monday Night below.
Compare and Contrast with the new one above.


Leaving you with some information on the real Sandy.
You know the one the TWC mentioned all night last night.

The problem with October storms is that they are filled with surprises and you have to understand the nature of October is that it is a mix of systems some cold core old lows that delivered snow somewhere out on the Plains in places we expect snow to fall in October mixing it up with plumes of tropical moisture lingering off the East Coast. It's like some long prize fight between two opponents one late to the scene and the other a newcomer onto the scene too early. Rocky vs Apollo Creed or LBJ in a race with JFK for the nomination of the Democratic Party or Lady Gaga singing with Tony Bennett. You're just not sure how it's going to play out but you buy a ticket to attend the event. And, then you wonder whether it will be rained out or be a memorable event you talk about for years to come. 

In truth I hope the NHC gives it some sort of name, because if they don't the Media with a capital M is going to blast this all over the media hyping it with shades of Sandy mixed into to a Super Storm ... October Gale, oh my gosh you'll hear so many names for a system that will be most likely anchored off the East Coast slamming the beaches with strong tropical moisture and high wind and heavy surf. It's not a weekend to go to the Jersey Shore unless you want to do some storm chasing or take photographs.

And the reason I say this is that the TWC had nonstop coverage of "not Sandy" all night last night while they spoke wistfully about memories of Sandy against a huge screen with the Sandy Track for over an hour... If I had a dollar for every time they said "Sandy" I could not only go buy an awesome new winter coat but incredible boots and gloves to match! It bugged me a lot as those close to me know as they wanted to make that connection, hold viewers at the screen yet at the same time warn them that much like Sandy the NHC may not treat it as a hurricane yet the general public needs to think of it "like a hurricane" out there as the damage especially along the coast could be high. And that is not to say there could be flooding inland in areas prone to flooding when this sort of set up occurs.

Understand that in truth this is a storm that evolves in real time and there are many variables. So many parts of the puzzle and they were shipped separately by Fed Ex, UPS and Great Aunt Virginia sent the last piece by way of the Postal Service so you can't put it together until they all arrive at your door. No, you just can't order a messy storm on Amazon. I know... just seems so unfair.


I wanted to point out a few facts about Sandy that was a Hurricane down deep in the Caribbean with moisture wound up into it before it expanded and went extratropical but still contained that huge punch much like Matthew another October mess from the deep tropics that was sent North along the Atlantic. So know currently we have pieces of the puzzle being assembled by Mother Nature so remember to check back often to see exactly how it all came together and only then ... much like a snow storm...will the NHC and the NWS get all their warnings and wordage correct.

 "On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[9] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved west-northwest (the "left turn" or "left hook") and then[10] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[3][11] Sandy continued drifting inland for another few days while gradually weakening, until it was absorbed by another approaching extratropical storm on November 2.[3][12]"


So that was Sandy... for us whatever this is called is one Low off of North Carolina calling down to the Low near Florida singing Follow ME!  And Invest 91L far to the East says ..."wait I want to come along too" so the NC system says to 91L "Follow Me!" and then we see just what will be.

I'll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so check with all those people on Twitter that I follow who do the weather so well and I'll back Tomorrow evening before going up the coast for Sukkos (wink wink) maybe I'll see some weather... but what kind of weather? Stay tuned it's an October Mystery. The NHC has named many systems this season that many argued were not classic systems, but with this close in and it's October I think they may weigh in with a name or some sort of special discussion. I'm not a gambling person but if I was I'd vote on a name and long discussion explaining how it's going extratropical and the wind field is expanding etc... maybe a few sentences using the word regardless....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... still pondering the possibilities of a storm out of the Caribbean later in October.
And there will probably be more snow out West than rain on the East Coast. But too soon to tell.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:46 AM

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