Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 07, 2019

2 Yellow Circles... 1 Orange. No Tropical Named Storm... Not Yet. Coastal Storm Forming in Real Time. Messy Week for Ships At Sea... Beach Erosion & a Possible October Surprise.




Turn the sound up....
...and see my thoughts on the water vapor loop.



I love the way Ed puts things together.
Ed makes great maps and graphics.
We have a strong orange area to the right.
Yet no one cares....
Everyone wants to know 
what's with the yellow circles.


I told one of my forever friends online that I really think the NHC pulled the plug on the Yucatan Yellow Area that was forecast to form to the left so that they could reintroduce it quietly again having it form to the right; because I always thought if anything was going to come of it ...it would head NE not NW. I discount models when they make no sense and watch the flow, the pattern and the water vapor loop so now an area that was near the Yucatan moved up across Cuba and is slamming parts of Florida with so much rain that even Dabuh complained.... 


Well that escalated fast.....


So now we are chasing moisture moving to the right.


You can see for  yourself it leans right.
And that's heavy rain under those reddish blobs.

Where is it going?
Up towards the other yellow circle.
There's a merging or an evolution.....
perhaps a hand off of energy.

You can see on Earthnull.... 
...there's lots of wiggly lines.
No closed circle.


And indeed currently it's one large trof of moisture.
Tropical Moisture.
It's forming in real time.
Models show different things....
...yet they agree that moisture hangs out along the coast.




Oh the EURO develops a tropical wave off Africa.
More on that later.

So let's look at a 3 day loop from NOAA.
It's a 3 day forecast it should verify.
Nice front coming down....


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

When things seem confusing...
...and models disagree.
I go to this short term loop.
3 days is almost set in stone.
Moisture moves up across Florida....
...reforming and combining with another area.
Into what will be a significant low pressure system.
But why kind and storm?
Which type forms?
Or does one form and then we get another.
Hope you read yesterday's history lesson.

It's a shame the NHC can't make a music video.
Sometimes a song doesn't get it wrong.
This sort of NHC update reminds me always of...
...the song Pieces of You.
(long story there.... 
....then I think of Foolish Games)


Again Earthnull.... 
Nothing concrete today.


Visible imagery shows something trying to wrap.
Or where something will wrap.


Extra credit image of a westbound tropical wave.
That moves into the Caribbean.
That needs to be watched down the line.


So it's always good to watch the MIMIC loop.
It shows where things begin to spin....
...it shows the flow of moisture.
It's a great tool.

I'll update tomorrow morning.
It's a time to watch and wait in real time.



Again this could be a Subtropical Storm.
Or a Hybrid storm.
Or any named storm the NHC chooses to use..
It's not a clear cut system just yet.
And often these things can go either way or do both.
Read the previous blog please for historic references.
October.... messy hidden games.
Tropical systems mixing it up with cold fronts.
Hurricanes and Snow Storms on the map on the same day.
A tropical storm dresses up as a subtropical.
Or a hybrid storm cloaked in a strange costume.
And either way... heavy rain, winds and surf will happen.
Bad boating and beach conditions.
Merchant Marines... ships at sea.
Some coastal effects messing with the beaches.
October.. it's not over.

You're dreaming of snow....
...and getting slammed by tropical rain.
And then the storm goes away and...
...it's wet, chilly and cold.
And sometimes a surprise hurricane happens.
Don't say I didn't warn ya.

Good tweet here.....


Good thing to remember.
Very true.
NHC not as good with intensity forecasting...
...as they are their cone.
Things often change in real time.

Don't say I didn't warn ya...

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:47 PM

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