October Hurricane History Surprises and What's Going on in the Atlantic? Hurricane Joaquin and Grace Examples

I wasn't going to blog today but I changed my mind.

Full update on tropical questions on Monday.

But this is a good reference post to remember.

Some hurricane history that explains October systems.

Note above you can see a wave in the Atlantic westbound.

Amazingly there despite odd late season SAL.

Our Caribbean Clutter still there.

High pressure clouds and cold air to the North.

And a lot of convection East of High Pressure.

Low pressure to the South of that is never good.

One area is currently orange at 50%

If those odds go up we could get an Invest.

Time will tell.

But what does it mean not a tropical low.

But it may become tropical.

Or a hybrid or any variation of names...

...the NHC decides to go with this time.

Note spotted blue clouds... cold air/dry.

To the South for now colors...convection.

Will that create trouble?

Maybe. 

Short update as the NHC has introduced some interesting areas worth watching kind of close in vs down in the Caribbean or a westbound tropical wave. I did mention recently that although we watch the Caribbean this time of year for tropical trouble, often close in things pop up and steal a name we think is destined for a Gulf of Mexico storm threatening Destin, Florida. October is all about surprises in the tropics and a blending of lows producing tropical like visuals with Noreaster kind of results or nothing much happens. You just never know for sure in October, but the set up is there and we watch the current weather patterns...and that includes new patterns such as the Carolinas getting a cold front (CAD = cold air damming) as we get a backdoor cold front and wait for the next to move down with a more regular whoosh of cold air from the North. The NC VA region has odd sets this time of year and South Carolina has been prone to odd happenings.

Two hurricanes stand out here that are just examples of how development in this region forms out of systems other than tropical waves specifically.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Grace

Hurricane Grace formed further to the East yet linked up with another system giving us the famous Perfect Storm immortalized in a book that was then made into a movie. I have a yellow tee shirt from the crew or something I believe... I should remember to wear it this fall. Little personal comment here but really this is an example of how art imitates life and makes us remember a hurricane more than we might otherwise remember it.  Putting this her if you don't want to click on the link from Wikipedia. Pay attention to this phrase "Grace initially had subtropical origins, meaning it was partially tropical and partially extratropical in natture" and that's a good example of October systems.

More recently we had Hurricane Joaquin. Again a nontropical origin that evolved in a difficult pattern that was setting up allowing for eventually Major Hurricane status and the loss of the ship El Faro with more than 300 souls aboard that was lost at sea. While the Cone made many nervous it stayed offshore though that created an odd "firehose" set up that flooded parts of South Carolina with nonstop tropical moisture flowing in similar to how Wilmington had a firehose set up when Florence moved away but it wouldn't stop raining. Note how it says Charleston had catastrophic flooding from it even though it was far from Charleston. Late October storms get wonky like that in impacts that are a disconnect with the actual location or strength of a storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Joaquin

Note Joaquin formed closer in...

.... meandered, looped than took off out to sea.

So that's it for today. Going out ... with friends for brunch, maybe wander around downtown at the Food Truck Rodeo though I'd be looking for some Fall Flavored drink vs food. Or shopping or just catching up on chores around the house as I'm getting better from being sick for the last ten days or so. The weather is cooler and beautiful and I can't decide whether to wear leggings or not because it will probably be too warm later but just the thought is kind of cool..like the weather.

I'll discuss long range tropical possibilities around Cuba/Florida and the Yuctan and where that may go down the line and what else may happen in October. But for now...though this will not be Joaquin nor Grace it may become Melissa. Only time and the NHC will tell :)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps.. an odd rule of thumb is that Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com goes on vacation every year to a race.... and he always ends up having to cover a system while there when he thinks he'll be on vacation so .... something probably will form so...here's to Mike... who will be at Talledega!