October.... TD 15 and an EPAC System Being Watched for Down the Road GOM Possibilities? October Surprises Always Out There

Short update for my own tropical sanity....

....after being offline for 2 days.

Seems TD15 was expected to be Melissa.

Early discussion showed that fact....

...it also showed a more Northerly track.

It's always apparent when the NHC is disgusted with a system that doesn't perform as they expected. I'm just saying they do their best and use models that aren't always accurate and often during times when the seasons are in a flux mode it's hard to forecast a track for a storm and the whole world of meteorologist are back seat drivers pointing out this model or that model said this or that.... I mean how rarely does a tropical storm form from an westbound wave in Mid October?  So it seems the system that was expected to be Melissa took a jog West. They still expect it to move generally WNW.... the writing is on the wall with this one but it does make we wonder how far West it can go or get before losing the battle? 

TS status is no longer in the cards.

Does TD 15 have something up it's sleeve?

Earliest graphic below.

Most recent.... show's what really happened.

The link is below.

The changes in TD15.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/FIFTEEN_graphics.php

Also below is a system in the EPAC.

Welcome to a crazy wild October.

As we begin early in the season....

...is how we end the season.

Those dreams of cross over storms.

And they happen sometimes.

Note models for 98E

E as in EAST as in EPAC

That's one interesting way to get out GOM storm.

In the Atlantic we have a yellow X over that area.

Then the 5 day shows where it could form.

Or in this case ...REFORM.

Isn't tropical meteorology wonderful fun.

October full of surprises.

November filled with nerdy outliers.

Interesting Carib systems looking ....

... for a way out of the Carib.

Pieces of a puzzle.

I've been in Maryland having a vacation of sorts visiting friends, family and enjoying the Jewish Holiday of Sukkos. It involves building tents or huts adjacent to the house and enjoying meals together with family and friends out doors weather permitting. This year, as opposed to last year when I was in Silver Spring and it rained the whole holiday, the weather was as good as it gets. cool at night (leggings and boots) and during the day sandals and light clothing... a slight breeze, blue skies and sunny weather. At night you could see the full moon through the slats in the bamboo roof of the huts....   One of my kids was in town so we had quality time and an old best friend lives down the block and one of my cousin-in-laws lives 3 houses down and her husband and I sat laughing and joking fondly remembering Dr. Bill Gray who taught him atmospheric science back in the mid 1980s. Nice to joke and remember a man who was so larger than life in all ways and inspired so many in the field of atmospheric science and tropical meteorology. Like many in this area my "cousin" works for the government on projects vs being on air or teaching in college somewhere. Sat tonight sipping Drambuie and eating sushi and talking to my daughter and listening to friends singing songs under a full moon and beautiful weather. You gotta enjoy it while you got it. Sunday morning (a few hours from now) I'll update the blog and look at satellite imagery. 

What I want to say tonight that I'll reference tomorrow and Thursday is that we have been aware for some time of a possible Gulf of Mexico system that would move up towards land catching a cold front. When I say "we" I refer to the weather community that reads long term probabilities with relation to current patterns and weather history. That system could become a tropical storm, a hybrid or a hurricane or simply strong weather lunging up through the Gulf of Mexico. Each model handles the set up a bit different and that's why we watch all the models as we watch the actual system develop and how it fits into the always flowing atmosphere. Nothing is over til it's over and nothing is real until it's got a name. The Euro keeps playing with TD 15 for several days and the GFS ignores it mostly while trying to develop wicked weather in the Gulf of Mexico. That's Mid October for you... maybe both things happen and maybe nothing happens. So keep watching.

Euro above.

GFS below.

Somewhere in there the truth will be found.

Thanks for your friendship and patience.

While I enjoy this time of year... 

Hurricane Season isn't over til November 30th.

No matter which team wins the baseball game.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

A good Tweet to think on....

... I'll have a song Sunday Morning.

Looks like some tropical moisture will work it’s way towards the Carolinas later this week Into the weekend as well! More good news for the parched southeast. #scwx #ncwx https://t.co/FE5SdpwQev

— Pee Dee Weather (@PeeDee_WxSC) October 16, 2019