Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Post Nestor Analysis... My Question .. Why Was No Tornado Watch Posted for FL Late Yesterday? It Was Obvious the WXR Mass Was Going to Produce Tornadoes. While the "Center" Moved NE Towards Landfall in Apalachicola Bay. A Rant, A Ramble.. Some Thanks




This is where Nestor is tonight.
Well ...his remant's last official stand.
It's obvious it's moving thru Georgia 
And as always these naked swirls.
Look better after hitting land.
Go figure.


The red cells are still moving towards Tampa.
Much of the real weather it had...
...is out of the Atlantic.
That orange red mass is moving NE...
What happens in Atlanta ends up in Raleigh.
Should end up near OBX
It rained earlier.... 
(it wasn't supposed to until the middle of the night)
Loved the rain... everyone here wants rain.
Supposedly winds should pick up tomorrow.
Yes, I'm loving the remnants of Nestor.

NHC official "pulling the plug" advisory.




My thoughts on the track of Nestor.
Note the "weather" was never OVER Nestor.
Not over PTC16
Not over Nestor.
Not over Post Tropical Nestor.
I suppose there's consistency.
There's also weather.
Tornado Warnings in South Georgia NOW.

I do complain sometimes.
But God Bless TWC
Some of us still watch...
...and get good info in real time.
Way better than those folks driving on I-4


Cannot say thank you to TWC enough.
And good thing people have weather apps.
Those alerts are priceless.

This is a sort of free flowing rant.
if I hurt anyone's feelings.
Sorry.
I really feel I need to tell it like it is...

I'll admit the chance many of us saw for it to approach hurricane force winds were gone with the wind when the attached Low and in truth I've said this before if you follow Cranky he almost always gets it right. No one gets it right all the time, but he gets it right more often than official sources so I follow him. It's EXTREMELY ANNOYING how often he is right in the way it reminds me of someone I knew years ago who always acted superior as if he knew everything (and I'll admit he knew a lot) but still... why bother watching TWC when Cranky is almost always right and rarely goes long on model discussion. So going to post a bit of analysis by him to show you what happened with Nestor. I'll add in they got increasingly annoyed with Nestor that never would wrap (why would they have expected it to...??) and it's serious bad weather was headed East which they ignored while waxing poetic on a naked center never aligned with the convection and pretty sure a few years back the NHC would have handled it differently but those days are gone with the tropical wind and political correctness of the NHC/NWS/NOAA mega agency that seems to report the weather vs forecasting it the way they used to. As Cranky says "shrug" it is what it is... so I'm ranting tonight and Sunday morning I'll blog on the impacts from the storm previously known as Nestor, PTC16 and PTCNestor.  

It did have a window for further development though it's strongest convection was elsewhere and it's a shame the NWS didn't post a Tornado Watch for most of Florida from Tampa to Jupiter but .. "oh well ...it is what it is... " and another friend Matt who complains on this all the time is 100% right.



Mid Level Shield moves offshore.
Nestor basically decapitated.
Why does he write like this is a suspense movie.
Sorry just how my mind works......



Cranky is always honest.
And when he's wrong.
He explains it in a blog.
He doesn't just delete his old Tweets.
And what a Tweet Storm when he's Live.


DOOM BLOB.
OH my gosh...he does comedy too!

And he's honest it's entertaining.
Another Tornado Warning was just issued.


And people in NC got what they wished for..
...hopefully anyway...
Rain!
Nestor was like the Rain Man!!
A Rain Maker... finally.


What Florida got was a mild Tropical Storm...
No..wait.. A Post Tropical Storm making landfall.
North Florida got political correctness.




They also got flooding, rain, wind...
And the important lost car in a storm surge.


2019.
It's not a tropical event.
If a vehicle doesn't float away.


The threat of nighttime tornadoes.
Some rain.
A bit of wind on the back side.
A BBQ tomorrow in a Sukkoth (holiday hut)
As it's moving faster than expected.
The BBQ should go on ;)

I use Spectrum News in Raleigh.
Why?
Good service, we tried ATT...ew.
And Spectrum does Weather on the Ones.
And they go LIVE when there is local weather.
So I always know what is really happening.

The rest of the blog is a rant.
I'm annoyed at the way this was dealt with...
A messy Tropical Storm is a MESS always.
You don't wax poetic on a naked swirl.
Center displaced from real nasty weather.
You cover it as a weather maker.
It's not a hurricane.
But always they try to ignore that.
The year or two after the debacle of Irene 1999
They added a "weather mass" circle when needed.
When a TS had a center far from the "weather mass"
And often the "weather mass" moves one way..
..and the naked swirl the other way.
This is not new.
It's not Global Warming.
It's not a government plot.
It's just what it is.... October Storms.
Autumn Gales in the Tropics.
Catching cold fronts... 
Zoom zoom zoom.

So stay tuned.
The season isn't over til it's over.
I'm expecting a late October storm still.
Maybe early November.
Halloween?
Don't hold me to the day... 
... Westbound waves keep rolling West.
As Dabuh always watches them.
So do I...


NHC says "nothing to see here.. move along"
(my brother says that often...
Reminds me of that clip.


But look at that wave.
And long term models show convection converging again.
In the Caribbean so watch those waves...
...they can often be the spark for trouble.
And usually that trouble would catch a front.
And we got fronts... so... keep watching.



Now for my rant on Nestor.




Remember Friday afternoon late when I took a few minutes to make one last video to highlight my concern for fast moving, surprising weather that could easily produce tornadoes across the Tampa region North up towards Orlando that could impact highway travel at night? Yeah, sadly that happened. A EF2 Tornado, nothing to laugh at, ripped across the landscape, trashed a Middle School peeling off it's roof, flipping cars on I4 and yet they still didn't hoist a Tornado Watch. Mike, who I was a bit worried on as the tornadoes in Tampa were fairly close to him and his family, asks the question on Twitter I kept thinking.... when were they posting a Tornado Watch.



"It's already midnight.... let's think about a Tornado Watch
for Florida when everyone is sleeping."

Understand they knew Nestor was in the GOM.
But without Tornado Watches in advance.
You don't expect it.
The Tornado Alert comes after the fact.
While the debris ball is landing on your car.


And this is why people love Mike.
He is honestly real and he's Mike.
He doesn't worry on optics or political correctness.
He doesn't worry his thoughts might not verify.
He doesn't manipulate data so a forecast verifies.
He KNOWS Hurricanes and Florida Weather.
He knows the reality of what most likely will happen.

As I do.... as I pointed out Friday and Thursday.
The "center" moves along one way...
...the real WEATHER was moving EAST...
And would slam the Tampa Area...
..and Central Florida.
Lakeland got a EF2 Tornado.
And they didn't have a watch before...
...nor did they post the watch later.

I was told "it's the NWS job" 
by a friend at the NHC.
Okay...got that... tho seen them mention them.
So where was the NWS?
Letting the NHC handle it?

And this is why people go online...
and watch Mike's Facebook Lives.
Why people read my blog.
Why people follow us on Twitter.
From years of being Floridians....
...dealing with Autumn Quasi Storms.
Catching cold fronts.
Watching tornadoes rip across Florida.
Especially in October.
We point it out.

It's about communicating dangers.
Not explaining how your forecast verified.
Or showing how models support your forecast.
It's about a FORECAST by the NWS 
It was obvious to many reliable experts...
..... that tornadoes would happen.







Explain to the kids who attend this school..
...why there was no Tornado Watch posted.
Or the people terrorized on the highway...
Trust me those kid's parents turn to Mike.
www.spaghettimodels.com




So much video.... 
...so many thoughts.
I'm trying to be kind.
But I'm more upset this happens.
Often, over and over again.
And pulling the plug on Nestor...
just before landfall.
When it looked the same for hours...
...and hoping coverage would just go away?
I mean NHC forecast a cone...
..the timing was off...
I'd say direction was off.
A forecast should be more than
extrapolation of NE movement plots.

A Tropical Storm is more than it's "center"
Especially when you have a hybrid storm.
More extratropical than tropical 

Good thing people still watch TWC
And people's phone's go off with alerts.
Someone asked me...
"Why should they pay attn to NHC?"
"they get the alert on their phone"
Hard to argue with them tonight.






So much to say tonight and so much I'm trying not to say. The way systems such as this are handled "officially" leaves much to be desired. This was ALWAYS a hybrid sort of system, but rather than going with that term or use the subtropical storm term they went with Tropical Storm Nestor after days of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 and after continuing the farce of a real center moving NE while the weather was all moving East after a lunge ENE they pulled the name designation and made it Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor...   It's as if they have a fetish for naming systems not worthy of being named, yet then they rush in where fools would dare to go and cover it as a Tropical Storm and their family branch NWS doesn't post the obvious watches and warnings those being TORNADO WATCHES until they were going to do it in the morning. So suddenly a Tornado, a long lived tornado, cuts a path through the night across a large, busy highway seemingly out of nowhere East of Tampa while the NHC covers the naked swirl in the North Gulf of Mexico. And AFTER the Tornado was on the ground they STILL didn't post a Tornado Watch... mindboggling. And I say that as someone who said tornadoes near Tampa and Central Florida would be a problem as the weather mass was moving East and I was concerned about travel on I-4 and the Florida Turnpike yet there were no Tornado Watches posted for that area for what was the one SURE THING that anyone would get from PTC16 AKA Nestor AKA Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor.

The last thing I put up Friday afternoon late.
And I hope someone read it... heard it.
Passed on the info...
Because the need for Tornado Watches ...
...seems to be on a need to know basis.



From my blog... my concern for highways.
Night travel with tornadoes.
I even mentioned I-4.


St. Vincent Island is in Apalachicola Bay
There's a city, a bay.
One area.
Lots of Hurricane History.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/apalachicola.htm

I went back online tonight.
More tornado warnings.
Nestor made landfall at St. Vincent's Island.
The center is over SW Georgia 

Let's look at the good ole NWS
In high gear now..



I take that back :(
I guess they will post a Tornado Warning.
If a tornado forms.
No words.

That's it.
Thanks for reading my blog.
My online diary.
My ongoing rant on "just why??"

I love writing.
I'm not proofing.
It's late Saturday Night.
Whose gonna read this?
My friends... I hope.

And I want to add for New Thor.
He did a pretty good job all in all.
Months back.. maybe April.
He said there would be a hurricane...
in the GOM near Crystal River
I think.. I'll check tomorrow.
And all in all the WEATHER... 
...was right where he said it would be.

It wasn't a Hurricane (Thank God)
But to nail a storm back in April?
And come that close track wise..
..show's a real knowledge of patterns...
..and weather as well as many other.
Esoteric things :)

Leaving you with this video.


I'll update tomorrow.
A normal blog.
Shorter.
Have a good weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.. Besos means kisses. It's a common sign off..
I'm not Cuban but grew up with them.
And I'm an Abuelita so it's okay ;)

A free stylin sort of blog.
My close friend's son made this video.
I'm a Miami girl in Carolina.
Wherever I go I take Miami with me.
His son Aaron has an awesome voice.
He's a chiropractor now as his father was...
Worked with his father in this life time.
Probably in other life times too but who knows?


My oldest son designed his CD cover ...
...but he took a break to become a chiropractor.
God Bless smart, funny, wise creative people!




posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:42 PM

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