Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 17, 2019

UPDATED. TS NESTOR Florida Bound Then...UP the Coast. NE? Halifax Again?


NHC finally named PTC16 Nestor
As expected as it should have been.
Since time began....
..we've had right sided storms in October.
Sorry the weather isn't where their center is...
...that's the way it goes.

Important to warn the public.
Educate, explain and advise.
Basically forecast vs reporting the facts...
...after it has 60 MPH winds and more.


Went out, came back as they upgraded it.
Writing a separate blog for TS Nestor.
Please read below as it's all very relevant.
Right sided Tropical Storms are problematic.
And Nestor won't be an exception.


I was a little annoyed.
If you read below I explain why.



That's the current Earthnull image.
From far away you can see Nestor.
Or as Cranky calls it an Autumn Gale.
But the NHC that named Barry.... 
...can't upgrade this to Nestor?





Yes.... 60 MPH.
Gusts stronger around there.

The reason I complain on things such as this is they are a disconnect and they very poorly communicate the true nature and message of this storm that is making landfall, but the NHC is prone lately to dramatically upgrade storms to named status or hurricane status as it's made landfall and that is not what the NHC has always been about. The NHC, once the most respected of government agencies, FORECASTED the movement and track and intensity and dangers of a tropical system in advance of landfall using old school methods of forecasting and they did a bang up, great job with true leaders who were respected locally in Florida as if their face should be on Mt. Rushmore. 



This is the reason people go online asking Mike on www.spaghettimodels.com questions on Facebook Live because he communicates the dangers as per the NHC and NWS and his own trained gut from living in hurricane country and studying storms. This is why people turn to kids online on youtube or wait for Levi Cowan, an excellent meteorologist, still in college doing videos explaining what is going on...and yes they all (including me) remind people to follow the NHC advisory but it's a poor pattern of randomly upgrading some systems and not others based on whatever random discussion is in use on any given day.

Disappointing. I'm sure they will get it right but this is about COMMUNICATING a message, giving warning to the public that doesn't sit around the nightly news anymore and wait for the radio to break into it's music to tell us there's a hurricane coming. In the old days radio stations in Miami gave out Hurricane Tracking Maps and they were the go to source. But today they don't break into Spotify to tell you there's a hurricane warning and someone looks at an old graphic that shows it doesn't have a name yet and doesn't pay attention to the fact that they found 60 MPH winds. Communicating the forecast far in advance rather than trying to justify a forecast with various models is what the NHC should be doing ... but luckily we have people online who fill in the blanks for us but.... they are usually preaching to the choir that generally knows what is happening. I'm worried on the general public ...that thinks nothing is out there, yet something is out there and it's intensifying towards hurricane force winds yet the NHC is driving with the brakes on it my opinion... just my honest truth.

So posting Cranky's discussion.
Rather than the NHC today.
You can find it on their site.

Link to Cranky's long blog.
Read it carefully or study the maps.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e101819b.htm


He explains honestly what is really happening.
He knows how to read weather maps.
Find the low barometric pressure.
He isn't tied down in a mess of models.
He knows weather.


Jim Williams does this too..
he is always watching the lowest pressures.
Love that.


This map shows the story..
..it's one of many in his blog.

On a localized level....
I'm somewhere between breezy and windy.
I'm going to get rain.



What bothers me here most is this...
This system more a TS or Subtropical is stronger than Barry
But the NHC went long on Barry from day 1.
And their forecast verified because I guess...
..a trained spotter found hurricane force wind.
Or a gust...or something.
I know what they said but it was just wrong.
Imelda lasted officially an hour an a half.
They will be cleaning up for months and months.
Many decided not to clean up and moved.

The Dvorak doesn't lie.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
satlooper.php?region=16L&product=ir-dvorak

Even this year they have used it to name a system.
Yet hurricane recon is looking for a center.
NHC is weighing it's options.
There's already a Potential Cyclone Warning.
And a closed system with 60 MPH winds.
Knocking on hurricane strength door.
But they haven't gone with the Nestor name yet.

Hmnnn


BOBBISTORM'S BOTTOM LINE


This storm will could have hurricane force winds at some point.
Strong Tropical Storm.
It's a mix of definitions but it's closed.
And getting stronger as it moves towards landfall.
The Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend get the center.
The WEATHER goes across Florida...
..crossing over.
Remember this system carries with it moisture..
...from the Epac system that crossed over into the BOC
It will carry the potential for tornadoes across Central Florida.
Maybe even up towards Tallahassee and Jax.
Then it moves up along the coast..
GA SC NC VA
The same track as most our systems this year.

Be prepared for power outages.
For high winds in strong squalls moving fast.
If you are traveling up the spine of Florida
From I 10 from Nola to Jax
Florida Turnpike.
I-4 Tampa to Daytona
Anyone traveling needs to be ready for weather.
Rapidly developing weather.
Even parts of I95 in the path of storms.
Air travel may get messy.

Dangerous weather will happen...
...far outside the NHC Cone.
So stay on top of NWS and Apps.

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

And really love that gutsy tropical wave.
keeps moving West being ignored.
Watch the radar...
...but know high winds are everywhere.


pie_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Yes we can watch the radar.
I'll be back later.
I'm sure NHC will probably upgrade eventually.
I'm going to enjoy the cool air and take a walk.

I'll update later today.

Keep reading if you have not.
Much good hurricane history as analogs for "Nestor"
And discussion from the 5AM advisory.

Back later.



Leaving the blog rolling live for now.
There are 60 MPH winds in there.
A center on Earthnull.
A center exactly over their X for 16.
Yet they don't want to upgrade yet.
Maybe breaking news later and they will...

There is no ...zero consistency these days.
NHC has truly become the NWS.
They hoist Tornado Warnings after it's on the ground.
Post a quick warning that will expire soon.
Talk on trained spotters.
Perhaps we need trained spotters in the GOM.
A little hover craft or something...
...sending info in.

They name Barry that never looked this good.
They make Barry a hurricane at landfall.
Verifying their forecast.


As of 5 AM Friday....
...we have a Potential Tropical Cyclone.
packing Tropical Storm force winds.



Hurricane Hunters in the storm now.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

A great loop to use for a system such as this one.
Watch it come together.
Note all of South Florida stays green.
Even after "Nestor" speeds up to OBX



I don't want to say this is basically a cold front...
...with a tropical low forming/attached.
It's that mix of seasons that...
 create dangerous weather.

As I said YESTERDAY.....
in this blog below.
Do not follow the exact center of the cone.

5 AM Friday Cone.



You can compare this track with the next.
But pretty sure the NHC won't change much.
Problem is weather forms FAST in these systems.
You aren't watching an eye or an eye wall.
You're seeing squalls form and slam some beach..
...some beach somewhere far from the "center"
Waterspouts along the coast.
And depending on speed of the system/front..
Inland Tornadoes.

This system forms in real time.
So real weather forms everywhere.

Take a storm like Earl in 1998.
Earl was STRONGER..
so this is a weak version.

"Nestor" below



Note the similarity to much stronger Earl below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Earl_(1998)



Again developing Nestor below.


Nothing new under the sun with Mother Nature.
We have these all the time.
Sometimes they are ignored more...
...other times they are named faster.
Same set up remains.

Going to do a full update after 11 AM.
Waiting to see if the NHC names it Nestor or not.
Nothing new to say since yesterday.
BUT... I want you to read what I said below.
About Irene in 1999.

While ?Nestor? appears to be coming together.
Today it has the convection it lacked.
Neat ball beginning to form.
And a HUGE SHIELD of BAD WEATHER
To the right of it.
Right sided....
The NHC will track the "center"
But strong weather with TS winds
across a very wide area.
TS winds NOT near the line in the Cone.

And there are different threats here.
Flash flooding in small coastal communities.
Tropical Storm force winds moving fast..
Fast forward speed + TS winds = trouble.
Tornado potential there.

People in Naples, Florida Keys and Miami...
FLL and WPB going to be asking
"huh?? it's hitting the Panhandle"

Image below shows the high pressure to the N...
That great West to East line....


A tail building down...
...we finally have convection.
Convection all the way down to the Yucatan.
So tho it's moving fast....
...it has a lot of weather to drag through.
Before it's gone. 



Yes Models show the track of the "CENTER" 
Remember that... weather exists far from there.


Also check out that change in track.
Up towards Boston... Maine.
Halifax has really been in it all year.

And https://www.weather.gov/ will post in real time.
So check your weather apps and officials often.


And why isn't this Earl?
That was early September.
This is Mid October.
Water isn't all that warm up there.
Should we get a Carib system in November.
We could get a hurricane.
But good news is that the GAS...
...isn't there for an Earl like Cat 2
But Tropical Storm force winds.
Some squalls stronger possible.
Than actual "wind speed"


Definition of hybrid storms.


Lastly this Friday Morning.

Link to the NHC...
...all the terms they use.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

I wouldn't count out a stronger system.
Then currently forecast in the 5 AM
Keep reading if you didn't.
I'll do a update at 11 AM
But wanted this blog to stand alone.
Especially the part about Earl and Irene.
Some hurricane history possibly repeating.

500x500.jpg (500×500)

hicbsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)


This system is moving fast.
More like skipping stones on a lake.
More on that later including video.
If you aren't good at whistling or hula hoop.
You probably aren't going to do it right.
But systems catching a front can move fast.
More shape shifting than moving.
More on that later in the videos below.

You can compare and contrast...
...this image below to Friday morning Selfie.


Models show the down the road problems.
After Florida and Carolinas...
Could it cause more trouble?
Stay tuned.




Cone below.
Again note how far apart forecast points are...
....on Sunday.
Fast moving Storm.
More on this later in the blog.


Rainfall potential up at NHC
Check it out for your location.


Decent rain, fast moving.
People have been praying for rain.

Good discussion from NHC
Basic KEY POINTS.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh
/MIATCDAT1+shtml/180236.shtml?


They have it reaching a 50 MPH storm.
If it hits 50 really could be 60 easily.
Just my opinion tonight.
Let's wait to see it actually come together.

Yes I know Grand Isle Louisiana to Pearl River.
Mississippi/Alabama.
NHC going wide and playing it safe.
Safe for keeping people safe.
Watches, warnings.
Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach FL






Models. Nestor?
Models are in good agreement.
Makes me wonder what can go wrong?

Note the points below on the cone.
Far apart as PTC16 skips along.
GOM systems often kind of hop about.
They stop, loop, hook, form.
Or you wake up and WOW they are there.

It reminds me of skipping stones on a fishing pond.
I live in Raleigh... it's a Carolina thing.
Though kids in Miami would try it as well.
Rockpits not fishing ponds but the same thing.



Remember Andy and Opie?
Stopping to throw a rock...
...or skip it across the pond?
To be honest this guy is cooler.
Check out that huge rock he uses..



Models show that sort of hoping movement.


Saturday above.
Sunday below.
Moving fast.
Almost teleporting ...
how do you spell that?

From www.windy.com

Note 1 model from Friday to Sunday.


Starts to form above.

Making landfall....



Crosses Florida FAST.
SC... Myrtle Beach !!


Later on Sunday OBX


It's as if it has a 3 day pass from the Navy ;)

it's late..you know what I mean.

It doesn't matter the model they all do this.
Another set....


Forms on Friday.
Saturday landfall.

Sunday AM Carolinas.


And the best for last.
The good ole NAM

Saturday 5 AM near landfall.
Nice looking system.
Mean looking tail to it's SE


Saturday night...
Carolina Beach Storm.


What's the forward speed there?

Cone below is from 5 PM EST.
Compare and contrast it with 11 PM EST.
Fast moving storm.

The problem with this is that they better be clear on that fast timing as it may take many by surprise. People have a tendency to look at a track for information regarding actual track, movement, etc and not to pay attention to the details. 5 PM cone has it moving from 1 PM on Saturday near the FL/GA line to 1 PM Sunday on the Outer Banks. The communication of this fast forward speed if it continues to play out this way needs to be communicated properly to all concerned. That's my concern.





Moving a bit faster now.
They also moved the center a bit.
Again the center and the storm IS evolving.
It doesn't exist yet, remember that.
It's a potential tropical cyclone...
...that already has 40 mph winds.
Confusing I know.
It's complicated.


You can read parts of the discussion below:


Currently the system has tropical storm force winds.
But..... an elongated center devoid of real precipitation.
As the NHC can post the cone and warnings.
They are able to breathe a bit and wait for it to wrap up.
That's why the Potential Tropical Cyclone idea is not bad.


Regardless....the word of this Hurricane Season.


Exactly where Nestor forms is important.
Wind shear is stronger to the North.

Note the video I made just before the 5 PM.



Models are shown below.
Know they can change....
...if it reforms somewhere else.
GOM systems such as this are very complicated.




Earlier I wrote on similar messy systems...
...that had wicked weather far from the "center"
So until Nestor forms and develops.
We won't be sure which storm we get.

I'll be back later.
Keep reading if you didn't so far.
And note they moved a Tropical Storm Watch
...down to Cedar Key.

Moving NNE and due to move more to the NE.





I'm going out for a bit.
Need to figure out what to wear.
It's suddenly cold here ;)
Going down into the low 50s soon...
Sounds like very warm boots!

3 PM update.
Info direct from the NHC.




Note there's been some consolidation going on.
Still a large mess of weather.
But rounder more defined shape.

A look at the MIMIC shows many things.
High pressure pushing down on the GOM
Consolidation of reds/purples.
A "center" forming?


While it's not much ...it's moving a drop slower.
Helps it consolidate.
Also I've been concerned on timing so it matters.


North at 7 MPH


Watches and Warnings spread over a wide area.

A video I made an hour or so ago.


Personally if I'd watch the WEATHER from Naples North...
Weather not "center" as this will be an evolving storm.
One that is forming, strengthening in motion.

The evolution issue is big.
As per it's current track....
...things happen fast.
It will be interesting to see the discussion at 5 PM.




I want to go over a bit of Hurricane History and take a look at a problematic storm from the past. In 1999 a storm down in the Caribbean formed and was forecast to move slowly up towards the West coast of Florida with cones and discussions and in retrospect what seemed a disconnect with the actual storm and where it's weather was headed. The NHC maintained that the "center" of Irene was headed towards the SW Florida coast, while admitting strong weather could occur far from the center of the storm. Jim Cantore stood on a beach near Naples where there were barely waves but a noticeable strong breeze while people in Miami were slammed with buckets of water, buckets of water we siphoned off the floor in our house in North Miami Beach. There was flooding outside, people died and employers didn't want to let their "workers" go home as there were no warnings up for Miami. Post storm analysis brought up the issues of the "weather mass" went right but insisting the "center" went where the NHC had forecast it to go. Much in the way that Hurricane Irma's naked swirl of a center moved up towards Atlanta and Georgia while the Northeast Florida coast was pounded with punishing rains, storm surge and an incredible amount of beach erosion for a storm that was making landfall somewhere else. They are still trying to rebuild the docks in St. Mary's Georgia that had a historic storm surge that funneled in to the coastline while the "center" was seemingly cruising up the Interstate towards Atlanta. 

So let's look back at 1999 and Irene. You really got to love the simplistic beauty of old style TWC where they followed the storm and didn't do Howard Costell sort of banter on interesting trivia while discussing models and how a storm surge forms. Mind you if it was an educational channel for Earth Science in Middle School I would love the way they show how storm surge surges in towards beachfront propery; I loved the old style following the weather in live time. 


This is the final track map for Irene.
Early October...catching the cold front.


The cone is below as shown on TWC


Note Miami Beach seemed out of it....
Far from Irene's projected track towards Tampa and Naples.

A look at the radar from the video.
Shows moisture funneling in towards the SE Coast of FL.
The Florida Keys....Miami... North Miami Beach.


My best friend Sharon was hysterical.
I mean that truly.
As if it was a World Series game 
and she was upset with the umpires.

I can hear here now,
"what are they thinking"
"that storm is coming straight for us"
"It's not going to Tampa"
etc... etc.... 
Usually it's not good to try and explain...
...to an irrational person she's right but the NHC...

TWC however showed the set up.
Explained the Miami area was getting strong bands.
Moving onshore way ahead of Irene.


To be fair they did a good job.
Even though they kept waiting at the beach in Naples.
Or somewhere pretty like Naples.



Models and cones for PTC16 aka Nestor below.


While the "center" of Nestor may move towards 
the Big Bend of Florida.
it's very possible bad weather will impact many further South.
And as that weather with threat of tornadoes moves...
...the threat will move towards WPB, Pt. St Lucie.
Vero Beach, Daytona Beach.
Where exactly does the bulk of Nestor...
cross Florida?

In a day or so we will have a better picture.
But October is known for surprises.
Both in politics and in weather!






Wind Probabilities are everywhere.
They will narrow down ...down the road.
But beware it's a short road.
This is a fast moving system.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIAPWSAT1+shtml/171457.shtml

Find your local city in their list.


Just a sample for the Carolinas.

Excellent Discussion too!
Reads like a Weather Mystery!!


End game... Tropical Storm Nestor!
Packing a punch and moving fast.
Zoom Zoom.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT1+shtml/171503.shtml?

Please read ... it's a very good read.


Current look at Potential Tropical Cyclone 16
Forecast to be Tropical Storm NESTOR


The NHC has spoken ...press release from earlier today.
And the forecast package shown above didn't disappoint. 

Look at it there now...
Slowly pulling together.
Note how much moisture is to the South and East.
But things are fluid, changing rapidly.



I spent the morning unpacking and catching up on models, loops and discussion while looking at similar previous October or late season storms that align well with the signature on models for what should be Nestor...regardless ....if it's a subtropical or ends up a tropical storm Nasty Weather definitely on the way and when I say nasty I'm concerned with the threat for tornadoes. Anytime you have an October tropical system moving towards land at that angle hooking up with cold front energy you end up with nasty tornadoes. I seriously hope I am wrong. But as I was Googling Josephine... other's began posting about it as well. Josephine left a terrible memory in that part of Florida when tornadoes surprised many expecting a more tropical event.

This is what Weather Historians do....
...and I am a Weather Historian.
I've lectured extensively on Hurricane History.


Josephine was an October Tropical Storm.
But it brought more than tropical weather.
A satellite image below as it wound up...
...from a large mess to a tropical storm.


Been Googling all morning while waiting...
...for the NHC to pull the trigger on advisories.


Note our current system below.


PTC 16 now.
But check the models out. 
A similar signature to Josephine.


From the wonderful www.windy.com
Please donate to them if you've used them.
And we all have...

Brian McNoldy's excellent historical visual.



And note that Tornado threat travels with it up the coast.

Anyone that went thru Josephine remembers it always.


But this is not just a Florida Storm....
...impacts the Southeast.
The Carolinas...
Then how much does the NE get?
I'll update later today on that part of this puzzle.



Models are coming into alignment and currently they show the center curving up across the Southeast (near me) but I'm wondering if the track will lean a bit lower or just the center of a large messy storm follows this track but the severe weather is to the South and East of it as currently it's forecast to be a right sided storm and that is why I prefer treating these types of systems as more than just the "center" as it's not a Cat 4 Hurricane heading WNW with a tightly wrapped eye. It's a behemoth sort of large mess that could.... possibly....wrap up tighter just before landfall. While shear is present, it's got lots of watery, warm real estate to cross before it makes landfall and as it's a bull in a china shop in the Gulf of Mexico it will make landfall. And, then it rides up along the East Coast and possibly slams the NE with another big punch of cold front infused with tropical moisture and hopefully some planes will take off in a day or so as many airports are closed and travel is a mess. More on that later. Let's stick with PTC 16 forecast to be Nestor.



Intensity forecast for now it on the low side.
A solid punch of Tropical Storm force winds.
I wouldn't rule out Hurricane force ... 
....let's wait and watch how this evolves.



I love to follow a wide variety of people.
I love creativity so Thor is a natural.
He's good... another view of this storm.
And why I'm putting him here is...
...he has been talking on "this storm" for months.
Since I believe before Hurricane Season.
He's had a thing for a Crystal River track.
But as I said before...
...this is not tightly wound hurricane.
So do NOT look at the line in the cone.
Watch the weather.

Enjoy...



Going to watch my local weather people...
And Dabuh and Cranky...
I'll be living at Spaghetti Models.
Today is Mike's Birthday.
He is born on National Pasta Day?
Can't make that up....
www.spaghettimodels.com

I've always felt there would be a big GOM storm.
In October .... what wasn't exactly sure.
But the potential was there...
..and when Larry Cosgrove agrees.
I definitely watch and listen to my gut.
As for November...
Something crazy will come out of the Caribbean.
Most likely.

On a personal note.
These October storms play havoc with Sukkoth often.
It's a Jewish Holiday where people build huts.
Not permanent some made of wood...
...other's pre-made of fabric.
And they often fall apart in a hurricane like Wilma.
Or even a storm like Floyd in 1987 in Florida.
And in New York the recent Bomb Cyclone
(whatever name it had)
Blew through and took many a Sukkoth hut with it.
Looks like that scene in Twitter...
...where they drive through the house.



And there's another system coming thru...
...possibly depending on it's track.
Stay tuned.
Anything not tied down well....
...may go flying in the wind.

My brother is on an anniversary cruise in Halifax.
Yes... he knew he could get weather.
Not sure he told the new wife but...
...he was hoping to get some.
Though he was worried on the previous storm.
But he got the unnamned Bomb Cyclone.
Or as they called it in Halifax "Wind Storm"



Amazingly they may get a piece of Nestor too.
This is a storm track stuck in stone right now.
And just as we have had Coastal Cruisers... missing the coast.
I did say later in the Hurricane Season...
...when they approach from the GOM.
The same catching the cold front...
...will guarantee landfall.

I would not rule out hurricane force gusts.
And again those tornadoes possible.

I'll update later this afternoon.
Still unpacking.
Enjoying being home in time for Nestor.
And the NC State Fair.
Somehow there is always a tropical threat...
...mixed with sweater weather for the Fair.
Can't wait to see the fire works ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.





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