Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Winter Storm in the Wings... Moving from West to East, Impacting the South. Models Today. Weather in a Few Days. Snow? Ice? Sleet? Rain? Stay Tuned. Today's Thoughts.

Today in Raleigh.
A snowflake!
That little white dot is a melting snowflake.

The rest of the spots .....
are where other snowflakes landed and melted.

Interesting surprise flakes.
Yet everyone here is waiting for this weekend.
No not for camp outs of BBQs 
But for the chance of a winters storm.

And yet in NJ today....
...they had a real Surprise Snow Storm.

So mentioning this for you to keep it in mind.
People live and die by models these days.
Then suddenly somewhere gets unexpected snow.
There was talk of flakes in parts of NC.
But no big talk on a NJ Snow Storm along the coast.

So while sifting through the hype today..
..keep that in mind.
Models don't always nail it.
But they hint at what may happen.

My feed on Twitter is filled with discussion today.
Everyone is talking about this new storm.
A storm that stretches from NM to NC/VA coast.
And those to the North are watching carefully..

We love to chit chat weather.
And I like to watch those who know chit chat.

These NC two mets above know NC and Weather.

So much hype about this upcoming Winter Storm and that's understandable as it covers a large part of the country or as TWC is saying from "coast to coast" which sounds like some advertisement for a radio show I used to listen to late at night sometimes. I've lost track is TWC on the C storm or the D storm? What is in a name anyway? If it over produces we will hear more on it than just hype. The weather graphic above shows the question more than it shows what the actual reality will be as .... this storm stretches West to East (at first) across the country being fed by Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture with multiple low pressure areas and add in cold air dropping down into the whole mess. If this was an Ice Cream Sundae it would be one of those Kitchen Sinks you order with a group of kids when young and not counting carbs or calories. When I was a teen we'd go to Jahn's Ice Cream Parlor on Miracle Mile in Coral Gables and they'd basically dump ever flavor they had with every topping and lots of whipped cream on top into a huge bowl and serve it to kids partying something or looking for an excuse to hang out together.

Everyone got a spoon.
Everyone dug in... 
No one worried on germs ...

Peaches, cherries, bananas....
Chocolate, Vanilla, Rum Raisin.
Chocolate Fudge, Whipped Cream.
Each spoonful was different.

That is actually what will happen over the weekend.
Some people will get cold air but no snow.
Some will get wintry mix.
Some will get so much snow..........
Some will get sleet.
Someone might get ICE!
Some get rain... 
... like Charlie Brown's infamous rock.

There are 3 types of people.
Those who hate snow.
Those who love snow.
Those who really don't care.

I love snow.
I want snow.

In Raleigh we often get sleet instead of snow.
Time will tell.
Oklahoma City may get snow...or ice.
Or rain...

That's the 5 day Snow Graphic on Spaghetti Models.
A narrow band of winter weather...
20 miles to the North or South may mean a lot.

Let's start to the far West or SW.

Note the timing... it moves slowly.

Ice or Snow?
Further to the East is Memphis.

Mixed bag on Sunday.

The mixed bag comes Monday.
Did I say Southern Snow Storm?
Columbia SC below gets rain.
That could change... 

Weather always changes this far out.
Especially with regard to winter weather.
If you want winter weather.... gotta go to Asheville darling...

Check that out...snow today.
Snow on Saturday...
Lots of snow on Sunday
Monday...snow? ice? wintery mix?

Winston-Salem is a cute town.
Cruising down I-40 here... 
Monday looks messy.
This could change... we get to Raleigh.

Raleigh is always on the edge so hard to predict.
Usually we get rain, sleet, snow, sleet, snow.
We get crusted layers of winter weather..
A winter like lasagne of sorts.
You just never know.
Up I-95 is Richmond.

DC shows snow on Monday.
And for now.......
That's the Northern edge of it.
A Southern Snow Storm.
Or Slushy Wintry Mix.
Or ICE somewhere?

I learned two things early on in Raleigh. One is that early in the winter and sometimes later in the winter also... we get snow on the radar but it barely makes it down to the ground. Often it's so cold, so dry the snow melts or evaporates on the way down like water evaporating in an old snow globe. It's called Virga and basically it's the Grinch that stole our winter weather. Today this was an issue as the radar showed me snow... but I couldn't see anything out the window. So I bundled up in my winter coat over my velour pajamas and stood outside a while until I saw some snowflakes falling and I do mean flakes vs flurries as they fell one by one slowly, randomly melting as they hit the tops of cars or my black winter coat. 

I read this saying below today on my Twitter Feed after coming back inside and trying to get warm and smiled. From the house and the balcony you really couldn't see the random flakes. The radar showed they were up there but were they making it to the ground? So I put on a coat over my warm velour pajamas and stood outside near the big oak tree and watched quietly and waited. I noticed that the cars all had small little spots of what looked like raindrops, but it wasn't raining and I smiled and I knew that flakes had been falling indeed. Much like trying to see meteors they tell you to relax your eyes and accustom yourself to the darkness... so I stared at the dark hood of a nearby sedan and suddenly I saw a white streak and then another one as two snowflakes silently fell straight down. I smiled. It wasn't a snow storm and it wasn't even flurries.... kind of plop plop flakes falling randomly one after another barely noticeable. So yeah if you want to see the snowflakes on a day like today and appreciate it's beauty you have to stand out in the cold ...with a warm coat. 

I'm not sure what exactly will happen this weekend and to be honest no one is sure. We can watch recent patterns and temper that with climo and throw out climo as this year winter came early. It keeps "surprising us" with fast moving little bursts of snow that have caused more havoc than they should have but when winter comes early people seem confused. NY didn't send out snow plows or treat the roads the way many other nearby areas did and I would imagine if this is set to impact NC they will treat the roads and go into crisis mode early just in case the models verify.

Cranky puts out great maps....
...and good solid discussion.
Note the different arrows...
Note below the newest model projections.

There are two low pressure areas and air from the North that meets up with them as they all roll along in one interconnected package of winter weather.

An important voice in weather who lives in NC

It's a complicated system.
Yet this is what weather is....
Not everything is cut and dry.
Weather comes down or across....
...meets up with other players.
Usual suspects or unusual ones.
That's what makes it interesting..

Here's the forecast for Monday
That's 5 days out.
The storm has not yet formed.
Too far out to be sure.
And oh look.............
........another system coming in from the NW.
Welcome to the Winter of 2018.
It's winter.

I'll update with models tomorrow late in the day.
Maybe Friday morning.
I can show models nonstop but...
...they are just models.
I want to see the weather!
Easier today to share with you thoughts of trusted people.
Some model discussion.
Soon we can go into specifics.
For now watch the weather world turn below..

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Our storm is out there....
See the moisture feeds in the SW?

As for me it's Chanukah.
I'm going to watch a menorah get lit.
Then going to some program with my husband.
I'm going to dress warm and enjoy the night.

I've had a nice day.
Snowflakes in the morning.
A friend sent a big basket of decadent chocolate.
I have had four... more for today.
I may have one or two a day for a long while.
Chocolate is healthy... you know.

Watched the Bush family and the nation say goodbye.
Time is always marching swiftly on.
Each season replaces the last season.
I like to enjoy the season day by day.
The leaves on the maple tree are gone.
Seems the tree is ready for snow or ice.
Or sleet or just cold wintry rain.

May you have good friends.........
...and the weather you love the most.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Bush was blessed with a good marriage and a love that lasted decades and decades and seems a good measure of life long friends. When a person is blessed with such friends and family they are blessed forever. May you all be blessed with the love of friends.


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