UPDATED!! Tropical Models Gone Crazy. Whatever Happened to a Quiet July? Never Believe Click Bait... NHC Watching to See if Barry Forms in the GOM. NFL Running Backs... Draft Expectations VS Performance. Keep That In Mind
Currently Invest 92L is still over Georgia.
Worth mentioning the NHC widened the formation zone area.
Usually as time goes by the formation zone narrows.
The fact that they widened it shows the uncertainty here.
Covering all the bases for now.
Below we see the long discussion by NHC.
30% in 2 days
80% in 5 days.
Note they say a "tropical depression" may form...
That seems fairly certain.
There are many uncertainties.
1. Where does the circulation form?
2. Does the circulation come together well?
3. Does the circulation have problems fusing?
4. Does it stack and develop?
5. Does it wander lopsided along the coast?
6. How far South into the GOM does it go?
As for the High...
1. Are the forecasts for the high going to verify?
2. Everything depends on the High Pressure.
3. Does the high digs in and pushes 92L West?
4. Could the high split somewhere and allow it to lift N?
5. If it lifts North where does it do that?
Water temperature is pretty much a given.
It's HOT.
Shear isn't said to be an issue.
What surprise could Mother Nature hold in store?
Models show a bend to the West.
Louisiana could be stuck in the way.
Could it make it to Texas?
Time will tell....
I'd go with a landfall somewhere closer to Louisiana.
Low country, bayou country.
Hurricane Country.
Though no one is saying this will be a hurricane.
And a track further East cannot be ruled out yet.
Models are best AFTER a center has formed.
Actual impacts from the NHC.
Note anytime they say REGARDLESS....
They are usually testy and not sure.
But REGARDLESS a tropical depression may form.
If you live near the coasts there pay attention.
Too soon to tell intensity.
Texas to FL pay attention.
Good advice.
I'll give my own thoughts once it's swimming in the water.
Really need to "see" it in satellite imagery to get a real feel.
Earthnull lines up well with the Yellow X
Here's a good video discussing possibilities.
And as we have zero center over water....
.... all we have his possibilities.
Model runs that are good to look at ....
...but which down the road will change.
I'll update tonight as more models run...
...you know that favorite drama.
As the Models Run...
How my mother loved that show.....
Now the world is in your hands.
Play with it.
Go for it.
Where do you think 92L will go?
This pretty much says it all.
You don't have to believe in the Mercury Retrograde...
....but many do so putting it in there.
I do try to be entertaining so laugh or roll your eyes.
But do one thing please......
Never trust a model until the center of a storm has formed.
Until then it's speculation and confusion.
Models?
They came together enough last night...
...for the NHC to blink and widen track possibilities.
Both models in the same spot give or take...
....that probably won't happen again.
But stay tuned...
Note the concern is now across much of the GOM.
Florida to Texas pay attention.
Will Mike do a Facebook Live?
Hmnn
Best Facebook Live Show on Tropics.
An Invest will be named shortly.
Better analysis.
And again where does the storm form?
Location in tropical prediction is everything.
I was watching the satellite loops last night, specifically the water vapor loop, and it occurred to me that the system was leaning more to the left than the right. When I say the system I mean the signature last night not a circulation or it's weather as that's way down the road... and it's gonna be a long and winding road before this is over. In my mind it should have been more to the East but I was seeing the faint, ghost like signature more to the left so I wondered (without the new model run) could this land in the Gulf of Mexico further to the West and if so that could and would drag the whole cone to the left automatically. And again if that changes ... the cone or zone of formation would change as well.
Note the vague green circle leans left.
Left of Atlanta... closer to the Alabama border.
This morning the models began to come together a bit more to the West and so eyes go back to Louisiana and Texas this morning vs Florida and Alabama as Mississippi tries to lay low and hopes it will go somewhere else.
Understand nothing has formed and it's a broad system that is forecast to move down into the Gulf of Mexico and the GOM is a bit messy on some levels and very hot and forecasts for shear are not always reliable however the one thing that has been reliable the last several months is the strength of the High. So you have to watch the High more than just the unformed center of what will most likely be Barry. As for the models..........never run after the models or take them too seriously until a closed center of circulation has formed and dropsondes verify what we see on satellite imagery and then watch the next model run with hard data dropped into them.
Otherwise you'll end up throwing the papers up into the air.
Freaking out over models gone crazy.
Trust me on this........
Let's look at it this way.
You know how everyone goes crazy about the NFL DRAFT?
As if it's gonna solve every team's problem.
And someone who plays well in college.........
.......doesn't always play well in the NFL.
Remember Sammie Smith?
FSU player... Miami Dolphin 1st Rounder
People were excited and to be fair... Sammie had his good days.
Unfortunately he is remembered for his fumbles.
From the link up above.
People waited for Tanny to be Danny Marino.
It never happened.
Lesson number 2 ... no two storms are the same.
No 2 quarterbacks are the same ...
But our mind races "oh NO not another Michael!"
"oh no not another Harvey!!"
Beware hype, hysteria and click bait.
I say this because watching a system form and making predictions while it is still cruising along the back roads of Georgia is fool hardy and much like expecting every good player in college to make the transition into the NFL. Sammie will always have his great college memories where he was part of a cohesive team where he shined. Barry as it most likely will get a name will be whatever Barry will be and until some part of him arrives in the Gulf of Mexico (in training camp) and we see what he can really do all bets are off and he may be a poorly formed storm that wobbles about the Northern edges of the Gulf of Mexico scaring everyone from Houston to Nola to Mobile Bay and his rain (the real weather) may go everywhere depending on where the High allows it to go and how much octane there is in Barry. Fuel is there as the water is high, but shear needs to continue to drop and then what?
It is worth saying that a set up for a blend of an Allison/Harvey storm is possible however it would not be Allison nor would it be Harvey it would be called Barry. It's totally possible Barry forms, moves West a bit, then stalls ...tries to go North but is prevented so moves which ever way the High pushes him and depending on the strength of the High how far West he goes and if he doesn't make a bee line for Louisiana it's worth noting it could go all the way to Texas or suddenly move more to the North somewhere near St. Mary's Parish Louisiana. And IF Barry hasn't wrapped the ball up tight he may fumble.... or he may make a fast move more to the right as tropical storms are fluid much like running backs they go where ever they see an opening. IF Barry gets stronger and becomes a Hurricane that too can change things. So let's wait a bit and not buy into any model until we have real time data from the center of "Barry" by way of dropsondes not models that like moon always changing.
Please read the previous blog.
As the Barry wannabe is still cruising looking for a beach somewhere.
Until he's there.........
We watch, wait and don't do Click Bait!
All lanes of Beltway’s inner loop shut down in heavy rains https://t.co/5swpgzDzmh— Post Local (@postlocal) July 8, 2019
Note it's flooding in DC area today.
That's not a political comment it's happening.
We worry on the GOM later this week...
....and DC and Maryland are flooding today.
Keep your priorities in mind.
And know waves are strong off Africa.
Some models .. several close a few off.
No storm formation shown yet.
But where SAL once reigned it's raining...
It's raining tropical rains.
So don't count your Barry until it's hatched!
Storms that form early and trace the High can be trouble.
Bertha formed early in July 1996.
A very busy year.
Will 2019 be busy?
We will soon find out.
One thing we know is there is a strong high.
There are strong African waves.
Remember Dennis in the GOM?
Remember Danny in the GOM?
Remember Tropical Storm Allison?
Messier presentation on satellite imagery.
We don't need that sort of mess in Houston again.
Back to Barry....
Will this be a Barry Sanders sort of storm....
..or a Barry Manilow type storm?
Will it ever say "looks like we finally made it?"
Stay tuned.
I'll update the blog later today.
Til then......remember no Click Bait.
And please put those hurricane supplies together.
Preparation and knowledge is power.
And remember every year is different.
Every storm is different.
Patterns persist.
History repeats on some levels.
But still each storm is it's own different storm.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... this blog today was brought to you by Nespresso and Senorita playing :)
Shout out to my brother Jay... Happy Birthday.
And...again read the previous blog, explains much.
Labels: Barry, GOM, hurricaneseason, models, music, Storm, tropical, tropics
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:30 AM
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