Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, July 06, 2019

Sunday AM UPDATE: Yellow Circle Over Tennessee.. God Bless the USA ;) GOM System a Possibility


Sunday  morning above.

Saturday evening below.
Seems we are go for the Gulf of Mexico system.
I say system as it's undefined as of now.


Think of this as the Jack Daniel's Tropical System.
Okay obviously it's where it begins.
Where it ends up is a question.
It moves down into the GOM.
Where shear analysis shows shear is low... 
A high can and may build aloft.
The moisture may stall out and linger over bathtub water.


So then what?
Some models show it moving around the coast like a top.
Bobbling here and there and everywhere.
Lunge towards Louisiana.
Backtrack towards Florida Panhandle.
The "center" if it has one.
Goes more to the West.
The RAIN... THE WEATHER...
Could be right sided.
Meaning areas hit by Michael last year get slammed with weather.
The weak center could go further to the West.
The weather goes further to the East.
That scenario shows it heading to Louisiana/Mississippi
But weather (heavy rain) closer to MS/AL/FL

For now models disagree.
For now nothing organized is there.

Euro shows something coming together.


Then a few days later moves towards the left.
Moves in over land.


GFS is more iffy
It's been on and off the bandwagon all along.


Heavy weather with no real name comes to FL


Just have to wait to see what happens in real time.
When that area moves down into the GOM.
Maybe the models come together AFTER it forms.
And it moves towards the neck of the Big Bend in Florida.

This is a screen shot from my blog in June.
Note I said things would heat up around July 10th.



I've said over and over around July 10th...
Give or take...
Things will change and things pop up.
This is a prime example of what could pop up.
And don't forget those waves out in the Atlantic.



Old models compare and contrast
But it's the same scenario ...


A system begins to be visible.
Then moisture amps up.
Do the winds amp up as well?
Note recent runs of EURO ramp up the winds more.


The area of moisture there now is not the system.
Note the wave approaching the Islands.
Each wave climbs higher.
Each wave wets up the Atlantic for the next.
It's a process.

Note Two waves have made it to PR and S FL already.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

The area in the GOM near the Panhandle of Florida
is where a system will feel welcome.
It's waiting for the system to drop down.
Danny in 1997 did this... 
Dropped down, developed and bounced back up.
Went a long ways actually.

Alicia was a storm with a similar path as well.
Tropical systems that form close in along the coast...
....do odd things sometimes and can ramp up fast.
One reason the NHC is watching it carefully.
It's not Cosme cruising along in the EPAC


Compare and contrast to Danny.
Again what's important is how close to land it intensified.




The real system is here in this tweet.





It drops down into the GOM.
Into a welcome atmosphere.

It's not the most uncommon set up.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1997)

Read the first paragraph of the discussion above and you'll see what I mean.

Time will tell.


Rain will be the name of the game.

But don't forget those waves....
... moving Westbound




Yes a system in the GOM is very possible.
Nice waves in the Atlantic.
Those waves are juicing up the atmosphere there.
Shear is forecast to weaken in the Atlantic.
I'll update later today on Sunday.
Just wanted to put this down now.
Compare, contrast my thoughts.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Oh as for the remnants of Barbara...







posted by BobbiStorm @ 8:37 PM

1 Comments:

At 5:18 PM, Anonymous Icabod Crane said...

Glad to see the weather experts update there hurricane prognostications for more accuracy than the old Simpson Scale of 1-5. It was evident, even to the most casual observer that the old scale was flawed and proved costly to those who were scared out of there wits when the classification was issued under the old arrangement! Everybody in town knew that a Class 3 hurricane moving at 15-20 miles per hour was not nearly as damaging as a Class 1 hurricane moving at 2-3 miles per hour or even stalls and dumps 25 inches of rain on your head! Of course, living within 3 miles of the coast line is always going to be problematic because of the storm surge no matter how fast it's moving. But the faster the hurricane is moving the less rain, flooding and damage it will cause! As everyone knows, hurricane evacuations are very costly and stressful and those that can be ridden out with minimal impact are less stressful than the evacuation itself! By the way, the average speed of a hurricane is generally between 10-20 miles an hour. So pay attention to the weather channel and keep informed as to the size, wind and most importantly......how fast is it moving!!!

 

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