Updated 2PM. Area off the E Coast Needs to be Watched. May "Interact" with a Cold Front if the Cold Front Actually Shows Up. Stay tuned. Crayola Thoughts and Jelly Bean Creations.

2 PM Update.

NHC pulls the plus on GOM area.

Rain continues.

Rain will continue.

Doesn't need a name to rain.

Compare and contrast from earlier.

GOM area becomes the NWS problem.

Please continue reading.

The thoughts expressed this morning....

....do not change.

I'll add one thing.

If a cold front comes down strong enough to change the general daytime weather significantly before July 21st I'll be thrilled. I'm just doubtful and not very trusting of Early July Cold fronts after a few weeks or "feels like" temperatures being in the low 100s. I'm not very trusting of models, they have not been stellar lately. Hope springs eternal though .... though it's usually wiped away like sweat on the brow in Mid July.

Nice front.

Then it's gone.

Stationary.

Loop the loop for yourself below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

***

This official image of the morning was released by the NHC at 8 AM and will be updated at 2 PM. It doesn't really tell the story. The "Yellow X" basically over New Orleans today after they moved it West after placing it near St. Marks Florida yesterday. The concern was always for flooding in bayou regions that have been built over and developed into suburbia. Note to TWC the French Quarter does not flood (not even in Hurricane Katrina) because after trial and error the early settlers realized "hey this area doesn't flood" and they built THERE. Sadly generations down the road we are not that smart or we think we can just build better drains. How's that working out? Most days of the year it works just fine until you get a pissant small, swirl on the radar that looks like a microcane moving along the highway; it also sucks in a real hurricane like Katrina. Remember French Quarter = High Ground. Rest of the area is low land, the bottom of the bowl and as you move West you hit one bayou after another all the way into Texas until you finally hit the Buffalo Bayou that floods badly when it rains much. 

The fact that TWC keeps showing the French Quarter Cam (advertiser revenue?) is beyond me as it's high and dry and no one is up at that hour in the morning except city workers. There is a real flooding problem going on as vehicular arteries flood fast when copious amounts of rain move in after minor No Name Yellow Swirls with Zero Percentages of Developing pound the area in the morning during Drive Time. Find a better cam or maybe go to a reporter in the area covering the weather. 

If you want news fast go to Twitter. Many of you are on Twitter. Many of you are waiting for the Ye Olde AOL Message Boards to come back. I know it was fun while we had it. Most everyone has found their way to Twitter, unless they are posting pictures on Instagram or SnapChat. Twitter tells the story in real time way better than EDTV ever imagined. Personally I like Twitter better than Survivor. Real news from real people. Headlines and official press releases are great but nothing like really seeing where the problem is vs where the weather is not on a Weather Cam that leads people to Bourbon Street to spend their money while in New Orleans. It also looks like the Weather Cam by Sloppy Joes in Key West but I digress.

People go to Mike for Real News.

Breaking News.

Telling it like it is News.

Close up map of a beautiful city.

It is prone to flooding.

I love New Orleans.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_in_New_Orleans

Nuff said on that in particular but despite the zero percent chances and I was annoyed many mets played down the possibility of flooding from this very small system - - - it's worth noting there is flooding as I said there would be. And, satellite imagery shows it won't end soon as it's pulling up much tropical moisture and training it along very specific lines.  Note the picture below that shows the concentration of orange to the South and Southwest of our Yellow Swirl that in the loop below you can see is being sucked into the general area. Water rescues are happening in a few places.

I guess it should have been a yellow-orange swirl.

Maybe they should expand the color guides.

Or like make up.

Matte, frosted and metallic.

Yellow X is such an underwhelming name.

Moving on to purple.

We definitely need more diversity from the NHC.

There are purple splotches popping up everywhere.

Apparently they don't read press releases.

Tropical possibilities.

Many close in.

Check out that Blue-Purple color combo in the Atlantic.

It has a very short window of opportunity.

No name but still purple fame.

Seriously press releases are good and academic reports are great, but what develops in real time from both minor tropical disturbances and major hurricanes going through rapid intensification over warm water close in is the real story. People love to pass #clickbait around during slow times when there is nothing happening. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season be like? We will be able to know for sure when it's over and people are complaining about how bad the Winter of 2018 is in December. Let's hope Macy's stays alive because personally I'm beginning to worry on the Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade. Would Apple or Amazon take over sponsorship and would anyone care? 

Bottom Line.

Tropics Tuesday.

All our current players in one spot.

New Orleans Flooding.

Upper Level Low E of Florida

Further East is our new yellow X

Bright yellow orange convection 20% in 5 Days

Keeping this simple.

1. The tropical disturbance now over New Orleans dumping huge amounts of rain. It's moving West and will take it's localized flood potential with it so keep watching and pay attention to breaking news and your Weather App do not wait for Momma to send you a message on WhatsApp that you are ignoring while on Snapchat.

https://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/flash_flood_warning_new_orlean.html

2. The beautiful big Upper Level Low that looks like a Black Hurricane in reverse color mode is moving West with the flow. Strong high in place. We might need to watch it once it's in the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. The Dirty side of the ULL (every ULL has one) will keep the temperatures down in Florida where rain will be the main game.

3. The area behind the ULL with the bright yellow and orange color with bits of red thrown in is the area the NHC put up this morning at 8 AM that looks like a big Lemon Meringue Jelly Bean. I do not make things up. Note picture below. Read the discussion from the NHC first posted above. Note the word "interaction" is such a vague word. It leaves the door open for possibilities covered under the term "interaction" in my opinion. #could #unlikely #interaction = very vague terminology.

The shape of the "formation zone" is because it is generally forecast to stay off shore (get ready for it) because the cold front is going to pick it up and sweep it away. Personally I would LOVE a cold front that sweeps this heat wave out to sea but I have it on good authority that it's not happening any time soon and if it does it's a one day event before the front comes back. If that is so then it would tug at anything actually there and move it away a bit and then retrograde back a bit towards the coast. This is highly suggestive discussion above on long range development but I am thinking of going to Myrtle Beach sometime next week to cool off a bit :) and watch the waves .... play at Broadway on the Beach (or is it Boardwalk on the Beach?) and drink cool drinks at Margaritaville because according to the Grinch Who Stole the Hurricane Season AKA Phil Klotzbach we will have a mediocre season but as he reminds everyone it only takes one hurricane even in a quiet season to produce misery (I'm paraphrasing what he wrote ... check out the link below and read it for yourself) so....  If I was to read the hysteria online about the Hurricane Season I'd figure the only hurricane I'll see anytime soon in the Atlantic Basin is in a pretty tall glass.

Extra Credit Discussion.

Go back up there and look at the loop in motion. Note the blue and green arrows I drew show the differing wind flow. It's interesting. Keep watching.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Don't buy the current scenario that this will go out to sea if it develops. It could go out to sea but there is no lock there on the cold front scenario or any fast end to the this hot summer in the Carolinas. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/07/2018-07.pdf

Much love...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... If you are interested in buying someone a nice present for Christmas (around the time that the weak El Nino may be affecting our Winter) you might want to buy a child a box of Crayola Crayons. Stimulate the economy. Seems you can also use them to make awesome pictures of yellow orange sunsets or leaping lava in Hawaii! If you are interested in recipes with Jelly Bellies if you are really tropically bored here's a link for that.

https://www.jellybelly.com/recipes-and-diy

http://kelseysscraps.blogspot.com/2013/09/crayon-melt-3-yelloworange.html

90L 99L Tropical Discussion. Will Recon Go Into 90L as Planned or Will They Put That On Hold. Is 90L Going to Become Franklin? Colors, Music and Discussion.

I don't see no hurricane or tropical storm there.

A bunch of shaded areas and a lot of talk.

But bottom line this morning...

...nothing officially there.

Old school image I like:

New school image from newest sat up in the sky.

Brief update as of 11 AM.
Recon has been rescheduled for Monday.

Often times in life we complicate things in ways that are not necessary and yet we feel we need to show more detail and give more specifics. Every six hours the NHC puts out an update and everyone waits to see did they go up 10% or down 20% or did the orange circle go orange or is it red. What's the details? Does it really matter if 90L in the Caribbean is 70% or 80% when the NHC can send planes in (or not) and upgrade from 70% without going to 90%? And I remember a few 90% areas that never got a name so what is in a number I ask? But we love to watch waves or any area of convection that has the possibility of forming into a cyclone with a closed circulation moving with all of it's multiple areas of convection together in one direction. It's a thing...  Some love hurricanes, some hate hurricanes but it all starts at the same place. A tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic catches out attention in the same way a stalled out frontal boundary makes some people's hearts race. 

So let's take this apart easily and get on with the weekend. Let's start at the beginning and try to keep it simple. Like most love stories it started with a kiss. 

Rather than giving one specific wave in a wave train coming off of Africa I would show the area vs the specific wave.  People see the area vs the X usually and yet they are tracking an X as in a specific wave. Often it's more that an area is ripe for development and sometimes one wave develops in front of it or behind it and gets a name vs the original wave. It becomes a game of semantics that doesn't translate well to the general public.  It's a general area such as "MDR" "Cabo Verde Islands" or "SW Caribbean" that produces the named storm. Note the MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE THE STORM nor do they "KILL IT OFF" they look at possibilities and offer possible solutions with a real heavy emphasis on it being a projection and the NHC tries to make a forecast for the public. It's not an easy job and much gets lost in the translation. Especially when news outlets hype a wave vs an entity with a name or designation. In this case we have two Invest areas 90L and 99L that have been designated to study for chances of future development. It's that simple. If I was doing it I'd be more general and open up the crayola box a bit more. In a Snapchat world all people see is yellow or orange on the map anyway. Just my thoughts. I do Snap but it's mostly just for my family. 

There is something going on there in the Caribbean with the Invest known as 90L. There are also two Upper Level Lows creating shear tearing it apart every time it tries to build itself up. This process can be seen below. It's hanging in there well and as of 8 AM the NHC gives it a high 80% chance of forming in the next five days. It's just beginning to get "that look" but has a ways to go still.

To the far right of the loop above you can see the SAL.

You can also see more waves moving westbound.

Think of the wave like a train.

The train continues moving even if the weather isn't great.

The wave is the passenger car.

The SAL is the caboose.

They move in tandem.

Maybe it's more like a sailboat and an anchor.

If the anchor is dropped it's not going anywhere....

There are more waves coming off of Africa.

There is more SAL coming off of Africa.

Same satellite view below:

Showing the Water Vapor Loop so you can see the ULLs

Not much has changed.

Do not be sucked in by a 10% up or down number.

It's a number we are watching the wave.

Don't get sucked in by long range models either.

Watch the wave. K.I.S.S.

It's partially about the wave. Can it come together and if so where? Does it have the right stuff and is it structured well as really a real named storm needs a good structured wave. It can't just go up and down willy nilly whenever it wants flaring up at night, falling apart and then looking good in the morning again. It needs consistency. Recon was scheduled to go into 90L and take a look around. Personally I'd prefer the Gulfstream Jet to sample the atmosphere. Why? Because meteorology is really a study of the atmosphere vs a specific wave, place on the map or model. Is the atmosphere really conducive to development is the question. But recon gets the data for the next model run with those incredibly wonderful dropsondes they drop into the tropical wave.

Further East is 99L a wave that has disappointed and it's making the new upgrade of the GFS also seeming so far to be disappointing. The Euro never loved it, the GFS did and so far the Euro is still beating the GFS. The models below are from the grid at Spaghetti Models and originally from Tropical Tidbits. The EURO always had it's money on 90L remember that.

99L is shown below:

90L below likely to become Franklin .. maybe.

Note both could affect land if they form.

Though 99L could become a fish storm.

90L forms and it hits land. 

And showing this image below as it shows a system of some sort down below in the BOC moving towards the Tex Mex area with emphasis on Mexico later in the week. That's a long range forecast map from a loop that is on www.spaghettimodels.com that shows a week ahead in time. It's a good sign if it shows up there that something may form. It could be a Tropical Depression and never get the name Franklin, but we will know soon enough. 

If you really want to see the models.

Enjoy this cartoon and love the L Bar down in the corner.

Will either of these waves get the name Franklin?

Stay tuned... 

We will know soon enough which means eventually.

Time will tell...

I'm enjoying today and worrying on the tropics tomorrow.

The road to the beaches of OBX are open finally again.

And the weather is beautiful.

Hitting the road for the rest of the day.

I'll update if and when anything is upgraded.

Beyond shades of colors.

Here's an image.

It doesn't tell the story.

My daughter's friend's mother owns a wig shop.

That's an understatement as it's a famous company.

Here's a picture of me trying on a blonde wig.

Well blonde compared to my darker brown hair.

It's an image. It doesn't show how it moves.

It doesn't show how it feels or smells.

You get a general idea.

I also couldn't see when wearing it.

But looked cute.

Here's a two fer below.

An image and a map.

Usually, but not always, that portends an upgrade.

More than a feeling but not a for sure.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

@bobbistorm on Twitter