91L 92L 93L All Revving Their Engines For a Race .. Westbound... But All Taking Different Roads

In the 2 Day we are at level Yellow.

The X marks the spot here shows where our waves are..

Notice the lead wave is getting closer to the Islands.

The 3rd wave has just moved off of Africa.

The new wave rolling off of Africa is lower than the rest.

In the 5 day we go orange.

Chances are across the board 40% down the road.

Which one of the develops?

All of them can....

...sort of a race drama to see which develops first.

But which one goes the distance?

A good look below of the individual waves.

It's an older shot but a really good one.

Note they all have a similar shape and form.

Definitely from the same family.

That low band like arm feature reaching out...

..wanting to touch you... to move W or WNW..'

Close up image of the lead two waves.

You can see how neatly spaced apart they are for now.

And a slow steady progress towards circulation is ongoing.

91L looks better below circulation wise..

..92L has more convection.

93L is a big wave... very big.

And it gains from the moisture trail 91L and 92L left.

So where are they going?

They are cruising under the High Pressure.

The models are up on www.spaghettimodels.com

www.tropicaltidbits.com

A short post here as I want to see how things play throughout the day. And in truth the models are pretty set here on what the pattern will be regarding the lead two waves. 91L goes into the Caribbean and then we watch to see what happens with it. 92L makes a run at Florida but in order to do so it needs to get through the shear zone and we've seen this plot line a few times this year already. It looks good now, but can 92L maintain that once it lifts more to the WNW into the shear zone? Probably not. Can it come back close to the coast of Florida as some models have implied?  They also keep it a very weak system but let's see what happens in real time not model fantasy time. A definite maybe. Then we have 93L the Big Momma Wave ... it's possible but not set in stone it pulls ore to the NW at some point as a stronger system and shoots for the weakness and becomes a Fish Storm but a really beautiful one. I'm not ready to call this a Fish Storm as it's just too soon. Too many intangibles and it's barely off the coast of Africa to write it's whole life story based on models that have done a less than stellar job this year of forecasting development as well as crapping out on intensity as well. It's just...well......... way too soon. Many models imply it becomes another Gert but a stronger Gert. Too soon to tell.. keep watching.

Rather than play with the models as if they are some sort of interactive video game... I suggest you spend some time today online watching the waves, the frontal boundaries, the highs, the lows and the Upper Level Lows that may be forming on the Water Vapor Loop. It's really the best crystal ball when it comes to watching the evolution of Upper Level Lows and in general they often are the key to showing whether a system will develop or will be sheared apart.

I'll be back later with specific model discussion and updates on our three waves set to race across the Atlantic. Where they start out is where the NHC put the X on the map this morning. Where they end up is yet to be determined.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=ea

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me...for faster updates in real time as I don't go anywhere without checking my Twitter feed .. embarrassing but true....

Ps... There's more waves behind this trio ...obviously ...so get a plan if you live in Hurricane Country. As they are all moving westbound to our side of the world.