Hurricane Dorian Forecast to Make Landfall in Florida. Could Central Florida Really Get A Major Hurricane? Hurricane History for Reference for Central Florida.
Same basic cone.
NHC is holding steady here.
Who gets strongest winds....
Basically a graphic from wind probs I talk about.
Interactive tracker from the main NHC page.
Current as of 5 PM on Wednesday.
Below is the wind history so far.
Its good to look at when reading the rest of the blog!
Compare that to the tracks below.
And again remember Dorian is forecast to turn.
To turn WNW and intensify....
...... towards the Central Florida coast.
I wanted this blog to be a stand alone blog.
Mostly it covers hurricanes North of Miami.
And South of Jacksonville.
It has a heavy emphasis on the Central Florida coast.
But many hurricanes were added in as needed.
Some were good analogs.
Some had similar tracks.
Some were the same time of year.
Some need to be remembered.
They all hit Central Florida-ish...
From the East or SE usually.
It's an area that rarely sees a MAJOR HURRICANE.
And that makes me wonder if Dorian will do it.
Be clear.... I'm using my own parameters.
They are wide but was trying to learn.
Trying to share the info for others.
It's more logical Dorian goes further South ....
...or finds a weakness and comes in at an angle turning.
But it's only a matter of time that one will.
We only have recorded history for a few hundred years.
So many Cat 4s may have hit Melbourne or Vero Beach.
Many Cat 4s may have hit Daytona Beach.
Many must have hit the Cape before our common era.
Remember that our history is a drop of water...
A drop of water in the ocean of time.
One of the most famous Treasure Coast Hurricane.
1893 was a bad year for hurricanes.
Sea Island I've talked about often here.
But several hurricanes turned just off Daytona.
Saving Florida from a rare hurricane there...
...but bad for Georgia and Carolinas.
I have a great book at home....
...from a friend who worked at the NHC.
I used this as an analog storm for Dorian.
But an up over the Islands tracker.
1909 A Bad Hurricane Season all around.
An oddly similar approach.
Also we didn't have satellite imagery then.
Note the last week in August.
Below we have an infamous year.
1926.
And this storm played a part in the Miami tragedy.
I'll explain how in a minute.
First the track.
Oddly this hurricane made newcomers to Miami...
...during the boom think they'd be find with Hurricanes.
This is one of the main reasons early Miamians did not take the warning of another tropical cyclone coming up from the West Indies seriously when they heard another one was on the way in September. Miami had been warned a big storm was coming and to be fair they had bad weather, stormy weather, rain and wind and a lot of debris everywhere from small trees that came down. But they picked up the palm fronds and patched up what little was broken and thought that they had been through a real West Indies Cyclone. There was no TV, Twitter or Instagram and no satellite or radar imagery. It was written off by locals calling it a "tree trimmer storm" as it took down the weak trees and trimmed some of the trees. A few days before the Great Miami Hurricane warnings were posted by the storm turned South towards Cuba ...wait for it... because of the circulation around the larger 1926 Hurricane quietly on it's way towards a date with destiny. Nothing happened in Miami. Then another warning was posted for an incoming West Indies Cyclone (as they called them then) and WHAM a Category Four was on Miami's door. They thought the earlier July storm was a hurricane but they were really on the SW side of a hurricane that trashed the Bahamas and came inland in North Central Florida and Miami was on it's weak SW side but strong enough to give the illusion they could handle a hurricane easily enough. Miami was wrong. And just as this year has had a pattern ...that year had a pattern and Florida was in the cross hairs all year. Hopefully that does not repeat this year.
1926 was tragically followed by 1928.
When one of the worst storms in Florida history...
... made landfall near WPB.
But before that a hurricane hit Ft Pierce!
Similar track to our current Cane Dorian.
Then it happened again.
Except the hurricane went up the West Coast.
Not a strong one.
If this was geology we'd call this foreshocks for the big one.
The BIG ONE came later and it's one of the worst in history.
This was one of my earlier analogs for Dorian.
When we thought it would go through the Mona Passage.
Close enough to still use.
Lift the track a bit to the left, same track.
Veers into Florida.
Travels tragically across the Lake.
Killing many.
Tragic.
Cliff notes on this tragedy is that there was a healthy boom town sort of environment around the Lake where farmers and their families lived fairly good lives and seemingly out of nowhere this hurricane slammed into them creating a massive storm surge on the Lake creating a tidal wave sort of mess that swamped the families living along the lake before the huge stronger dike was built and were killed with tragic stories akin to babies being plucked from the arms of their parents as happened in the Labor Day Florida Keys Hurricane we will soon discuss. A very good book was written about this storm you can buy it cheaply on Amazon used. Jim Williams had the author on his show on www.hurricanecity.com and I had him come speak at the library I worked at in North Miami Beach. Hurricanes can come in North of Miami and travel across the lake.
I just read about it in another book last moth.
That's why the South Florida Water Management ...
...began the process ahead of Dorian.
prepping-flood-control-systems-dorian/
If a hurricane was going to hit Central Florida.
It would be 1933.
One of the busiest years ever
This is a bad example if I wanted to disprove the current cone.
Note it was NOT a Cat 3 or 4 or more.
Ouch.
Adding insult to injury here!
It was not a good year for that part of Florida.
Nor most of the Atlantic.
Nuff said.
Moving on to 1937.
The 1930s were cruel to Florida.
A PS on the 1935 Hurricane at the end.
That's an interesting track.
But again a Tropical Storm NOT a Major Hurricane.
It did make landfall near Daytona Beach.
It can happen.
And it seems if it is going to...
Labor Day Weekend is prime time.
1939 ended out the decade with another hit.
75 MPH Hurricane but a track to look at.
Similar track in ways.
August....
1946 Worth mentioning.
A minor tropical storm hit near Lake Worth.
A strong storm hit Tampa.
Weak but worth mention.
You will see the pattern is weak storms hit there.
Adding in 1947 because it's relevant.
A bit further South than I want to use but...
... a strong forgotten hurricane.
A strong hurricane hit Ft. Lauderdale.
I mention it as it gets forgotten by most.
Years ago I was on a pier and in the store they had a picture of it.
I never heard much about it growing up in Miami.
Up and over the islands.
All the way through the Gulf of Mexico.
1949 Mother Nature does it again.
West Palm Beach.
You see the pattern repeats sometimes from year to year.
Similar but not the same.
Do I do Dora for 1964 and Jax?
Okay yes because it's DORa like DORian.
I used Dora as a possible analog storm.
When Dorian formed.
Dora is an infamous storm.
Many blamed it on weather modification.
Yes back in 1964.
Others knew the ridge built in.
And the Beatles got a day off.
They were on tour.
Flown down to safety in Key West.
It was BIG for Key West.
This takes us deep into the 1970s.
To David another D storm in August.
You see the pattern here?
I used David as an analog storm for Dorian early on.
Again note the pattern ... or method in my madness .....
I want to point out something else about Hurricane David. The NHC originally had David aimed at the South Florida area and my relatives in Miami went crazy putting up shutters and planning to hunker down at the original family homestead in Roads section of Miami. I was in California obsessing on Earthquakes and my baby brother called to tell my mother was screaming "Be CAREFUL!" at my father who was told to climb a ladder and put up shutters on the 2nd floor windows of my Grandma's house. Spoiler Alert my father was born and raised in the Bronx moving to Miami for his health and to go to UM (Go Hurricanes!) and he didn't know a lot about climbing ladders nor putting up hurricane shutters on a 2nd floor window. People in Miami hit the road in a total panic driving up the state taking hotel rooms along the Interstate Highway. And then at the very last moment.......Hurricane David turned JUST OFFSHORE and it went up and made a rare Central Florida sort of landfall. Irony was that instead of people staying in their well built safe homes in Miami they rode out David in cheaply built motel rooms with the wall AC flying out the windows hiding in bathrooms. Those people remembered David and refused to evacuate to Orlando for Hurricane Andrew. True Story. I was in Miami Beach by Andrew in 1992 and everyone refused to go and they refused to believe Andrew would not turn like Andrew.
Vero Beach.
The very same time of year.
Moving on to 1983.
But it formed close in.
Melbourne Westbound across Florida.
Weak Tropical Storm over Florida.
Do with that what you will.
Same time of year.
Same weak sort of storm that region gets.
Usually.
Bonus Trivia Round. Same name list.
1984 below.
Diana in 1984 scared everyone.
Then ... mysteriously bounced away.
Again a weak storm.
Isidore did more damage and came in.
But as a tropical storm.
Made landfall near Jupiter.
Came out back over water near Jacksonville.
Weaker storm but worth mentioning obviously
Erin in 1995
Same name list.
Weak storm.
Near Vero Beach.
Very hard it seems to hit that area with a Major Hurricane.
Will Dorian be that hurricane?
Let's go a bit further South for the Canes of 2004
Hutchinson Island, Florida.
Just South of Ft. Pierce.
One of my constant analog storms for Dorian.
HUTCHISON ISLAND.
Mother Nature did it again!
She can be cruel sometimes.
She killed 3,000 people.
Down in Hispaniola
Flash floods.
Tragic, so tragic.
Created tragedy up the coast.
2 miles from where Hurricane Frances made landfall ...
3 weeks earlier.
Again patterns repeat.
And again Haiti didn't kill Jeanne.
It knocked Jeanne for a loop.
Literally........
And Jeanne came back.
One last storm ...
But it's a Florida Keys Storm.
Why am I mentioning it?
Because it's was a very small storm.
That blew up fast over the Gulfstream.
And it was a Labor Day Hurricane.
You're scared and nervous if you live in Florida.
If your loved ones live in the cone in Florida.
I get that I have a lot of family there.
But things can change fast as we have seen above.
Diana bounced away from a landfall.
David aimed for Miami and slid up the coast miles offshore.
Dora came out of the East and surprised Jax...
1893 two hurricanes aimed for Central Florida....
...and curved off at the last minute slamming Georgia and Carolinas.
Almost all the storms that hit there are weaker.
Many hit in late August or early September.
A hurricane such as small Dorian.
Is exactly the type of Hurricane that hit the Keys.
It was small and intensified over the hot Gulf Stream.
And..... they never saw it coming.
It was so small it could have slipped .....
.....between the Bahamas unseen.
Well some stormy conditions.
But no one would have expected it was a Cat 5.
Because we have the NHC doing their job...
...and we have satellite imagery.
And models.
And recon.
And weather experts today...
We know it's there.
We can prepare.
Knowledge is power.
Can you imagine having a Major Hurricane.
Racing to your door.
And you had no idea?
That happened time and again in history.
So feel good knowing you have warnings.
Virgin Islands didn't expect Dorian.
But they knew Dorian was there nearby.
Will update later my thoughts.
1. It is very possible obviously that the Central Florida can get hit with a strong hurricane but usually it gets lucky. Storms feel a weakness somewhere just before landfall and slow down and then change direction and slide up along the East Coast much as Matthew did that officially did not make landfall as only part of the eye was over the Cape but not the center of the eye. The NHC has rules. If the weather pattern on that one given day is set up to push a Major Hurricane into Central Florida it can and will happen. So you have to prepare.
2. Could it go South if the high builds in that deep and it wants to follow an Upper Level Low down closer to the Florida Keys and Cuba and hit South Florida? Yes, it could and it would be more inline with Andrew and Katrina and the Labor Day Hurricane that made landfall further South as well as Frances and Jeanne. But that's down the road so everyone in Miami has to do like my daughter who ordered Baby Wipes and Diapers at Amazon Prime today (she got to Publix but you literally could not get inside) or my son who put up shutters today on the 2nd floor windows just in case because he has other things to do and he wants to make his wife who is hurricane shy happy. My kids are monitoring it and making jokes like Miami Kids do. My daughter filled up with gas so did her classy smart brother on his lunch hour today.
https://www.instagram.com/lifestyle_miami/?hl=en
www.onlyindade.com
Laughter is often the best medicine.
3. Could this find a weakness and escape?
It's not in the current forecast but things change and some models do show it getting away. As I have said many times IF DORIAN FINDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE... DORIAN WILL TAKE IT.
4. Where else might it go?
I'm concerned on the Cape... because it sticks out into the Atlantic and it is in Dorian's current flight path and if Dorian tries to turn at the last minute it sticks out into the Atlantic saying "go for it try to hit me" and the powers that be I happen to know are taking Dorian very carefully at the Cape. It could happen.
5. Tampa? Tallahassee?
That's down the road. Let's see what Dorian does the next day or two and more so see how strong that ridge is and where if anywhere there is a weakness. Timing is an issue and it could very seriously be a problem as we keep showing the timing changing.
All you can now is watch, wait but begin to prepare bit by bit rather than panic.
Staying focused and calm helps you stay one step ahead of your sanity.
Trust me I have my own PTS moment every time I see the models do what Andrew did and I live and breathe hurricanes. I study them, I've chased them and I love studying them but I can remember being back in Walgreens trying to get the last diapers on the shelves and staring at the TV with the weathergirl looking terrified talking as they kept running that loop and everyone asking the weather people if there was some front or ... and the answer always was "no it's coming" and yeah that happened. So those images below always remind me that your worst case scenario really can and did happen. Knowledge is power. Learn from history.
Stay tuned.
I'll update tonight.
I wanted this to be a stand alone blog.
I wanted it for my own reference.
I was a librarian and a writer.
I always liked writing reports.
Now I blog.
I sincerely hope this taught you something.
And I can help you weather the storm.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... Jim Williams is an expert in Hurricane History.
He has information on his site for every city.
Please use his site when looking for information.
Just one example for Melbourne Florida.
Google "Hurricanecity.com" and put in your city!
A look back at our most infamous Labor Day Hurricane.
Labels: dorian, Florida, History, hurricane, labordayweekend, maps, models, tracks
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:13 PM
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