Hurricane Harbor: Updated 8 PM ..Invest 99L 90% Recon Tomorrow Probably. MDR Moving WNW. 98L 70% RED Now. Hovering Over the Gulfstream by Florida & TD Chantal Still Out There... Triple Play in the Tropics Today. Which Invest Gets the Name Dorian ?

8PM UPDATE

a bit early good for me...

A Hurricane Recon plane will go in tomorrow most likely.

As 98L moves up into water it should have a better evironment.

If it follows the game plan...

Below is a picture of Invest 99L looking great.

Better than 98L to be honest.

98L has some circulation there kind of...

...but lacking convection.

Pretty sure if 98L looked like 99L it would have a name.

Come on from Outer Space you know what that is.

Odds up now and gone red on the 5 Day

70% Chances.

I'm expecting something to get designation tomorrow.

But hard to second guess the NHC this year.

Clearly looks more like a storm than Barry ever did.

But Barry was near Nola and 99L is days from the Islands.

Actually 99L is moving fast.

Might help it not to ingest too much dust.

Tho slowing down it would develop more.

Gulf of Mexico still being officially ignored.

98L looks a bit like part of a trough at times.

Let's see what it's got tomorrow.

I'll update Saturday evening next.

Check out radar loops on Spaghetti Models

www.spaghettimodels.com

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps... keep reading if you didn't do so already!

98 * 99 * 98 * 99 *

Some thoughts here waiting to see if the NHC changes anything.

Listening to Mike do a Facebook Live.

Nice because he gives more details than the NHC

Just true as he can do that...

Note how odd it is that the brightest convection...

...is in the Gulf of Mexico.

This isn't a doctored image up above.

It's looked like this for the last few days.

Invest 98L flares up, wanes, flares up

The circulation of 98L is mostly over land.

Now there are less South Florida rains than there were.

A dry Invest.......

And down in the bottom right corner.

Is our Invest 99L that's not getting any love from the NHC.

That could change.

Mike explains this well in this post.

Note this is an image of the Tropics currently.

This is the crux of the matter.

NHC went with EURO that showed not much.

GFS shows a... ? hurricane?

It's the same game every year.

Why can't someone take both models and fuse them together?

Just wondering.

NHC official word from earlier today.

Hey it's there.

Hey it's gonna rain.

Stay tuned.

Currently expecting NHC will wait to see ....

....first AM visible.

98L

99L still there looking good...then what?

Will they ever hoist a yellow circle in the GOM?

Thought it was worth posting NWS discussion from Miami.

Kind of odd if a tropical storm forms over Homestead, FL

On the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.

Just random weird thought.

Time will tell.

NWS Discussion below.

Euro shows a stronger system moving up the coast.

GFS shows weaker and does funky things.

It's over the warmest water it's going to find.

In truth most afternoon thunderstorms in Miami...

...are stronger than weak Tropical Depressions.

Top grid from www.spaghettimodels.com

Models and maps.

Graphs and details.

All the weather pasta you can eat ...

2 PM Update.

X Marks the Spot.

NHC ups 98L to 90% chances of development.

This is a sure thing the only question remains...

where and when?

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com below

Seriously you can see it just E of Miami

Questions remain.

Models disagree.

Understand track is based on location of actual core development and upper air features such as Cold Fronts that are moving down currently towards the Carolinas. But just how strong is that front and how far will it go before going flat as a Stationary Front? It's coming through Raleigh but not whooshing through Savannah this weekend so where 98L is when it develops makes a big difference as things can change fast especially in this time of year when we are wearing flip flops and sipping Pumpkin Spice Latte as we dream on Autumn Leaves falling while thunderstorms are still building... you get the point. Nothing is carved in stone regarding 98L. 99L below will most likely continue West to WNW towards the Island for now. And by the way it looks beautiful on visible imagery as it has banding, signs of outflow but the NHC needs to keep raising up it's chances a bit more before dealing with the reality that only the GFS called for this wave to develop so fast. Maybe the upgrade worked?

Below is 99L now upped to 50% chances.

Looking very good on satellite imagery.

Here is the question in the short term.

Long term yeah goes out to sea.

But it draws scribble scrabble over South Florida.

NHC says the main weather stays off shore.

There are NO tropical watches up at 2 PM.

We might see that happen at 5 PM

It's a bit too close to play chicken here.

Kind of ridiculous.

They think it will form... 90%

But still waiting, waiting for it to come together.

It has a general "look" with the envelope.

It's definitely blooming....

But compare that to newly introduced 99L below.

99L looks far better than 98L

But 98L is hovering over a beach in South Florida

So it gets higher priority obviously.

Earthnull shows us both have a circulation.

We could have Dorian and Erin within 24 hours.

NHC will make that call soon.

Then we have the blob in the Gulf of Mexico.

Amazing there is MORE convection there.

If you didn't have models.

You'd think it's the Invest with 90%

What can I say?

Models matter.

And a wide view of our Invest 99L below.

Keep watching.

Really many questions on the GOM

Some models show development next week.

Again the GFS has been go for lift off for 99L

But it's not the model most respected.

Stay tuned.

I'll update at 5 PM.

Let's see what the NHC has to say

* * *

Note 98L is trying.

It's over HOT water now.

But... compare and contrast.

Updated note I wanted to mention.

Just keep this in mind while watching 98L near FL

Invest 99L currently looks better than 98L

And NHC named it as 99L ....

....before putting up the yellow circle.

Kind of rare to go from zero to Invest.

But we've seen this before.

It usually means things change fast.

Link to loop for 99L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=99L&product=vis-swir

Yeah that's spinning.

98L trying to get spinage as Mike says from Spaghetti Models

This is something that should make you go "oh......."

So Welcome 99L to the Tropical Party.

As expected the Tropics are heating up on August 23rd.

Around the 25th we should have a named storm.

Satellite image in motion above.

I want to draw your attention to our new player.

99L out in the Atlantic...

Yellow area in the MDR at 20% for now.

New wave off of Africa.

And our main player 98L hovering near Florida.

Florida and Cuba to be exact.

Forecast to move up the Florida coast.

And develop into a named storm like 97L did.

8AM from the NHC

All colors represented this morning.

Let's start with the closest system 98L

98L has a 70 percent chance of development.

Expect development eventually.

Actually in the 5 day discussion 98L is RED

I make this large to emphasize....

....this is so far the track of the Year.

Tracing the East Coast.

It may do some strange things before it gets up the coast.

So watch it closely in real time.

And that's easy as it's on Miami radar....

Florida has a real squeeze play going on.

Can it resist a landfall eventually?

Real drama there.

98L is trying to wrap up.

Note the water there is HOT....

Another view.

The breeding grounds for storms so far....

....as we move towards September.

We look further out.

But let's look at models first!

I'm just going to explain this here and understand it's more an issue of watch the satellite and radar loops than the models here with 98L in the short term as until a real center develops, takes overs, builds it's way up into the atmosphere and screams look at me on Earthnull many models will continue to drag this tropical wave known as Invest 98L West into the Gulf of Mexico... across South Florida, the Everglades, Florida Bay and the Florida Keys and then slide it back over Florida before going North to see the beaches of Jacksonville. IF it develops earlier sucking in that high octane fuel over the Gulfstream waters shown below. Great site by the way to bookmark or whatever we do now days, don't lose it! It will come in handy as the season progresses and heats up like the 87 degree water near Florida Bay.

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/tropical#Water_Temperatures-WX

Now look at those models again and see what I mean.

Until it closes off a tight center and develops.

Models will continue to offer odd solutions.

Soon the track becomes more set in stone.

That's happening this morning.

With each model run..

Note last night we had swirly pasta for dinner.

OLD but worth seeing how we have progressed

When models seem strange.

Give them some time.

Nothing going to surprise anyone....

...as 98L is on Miami radar.

Below we have a new player in the MDR

Given 20% for now on introduction.

Models have been consistently developing this wave.

Some models lose it and some maintain it.

Where is it going?

I don't want to say connect the dots but....

it's a game many play.

I'll discuss this later today.

For now... know it's there.

Know there are more waves behind it.

And lastly we come to our Old Miss Chantal.

Still has 30 MPH winds ....

...and a closed circulation.

Models for 98L

Taking a wide view here to start with....

Note the Tropical Wave in the Atlantic Westbound.

That new wave is our NEW area in YELLOW

Cluster of convection just East of Florida.

Gulf of Mexico Blob.

Frontal Boundary NC/VA

Water Vapor Loop

You can see the Upper Level Low now spinning off Carolinas

Way off in the Atlantic.

It looks like a dark hurricane.

You can also see the wave closer to Africa that just came off.

Gulf of Mexico and Florida

This blob in the Gulf of Mexico remains the mystery.

It remains anchored there every day.

Flares up, dies down, flares up.

Now you see me....

...now you don't.

Note you can see 98L far right FLARING UP.

That's because it's sucking in high octane...

...from the Gulfstream.

My Bottom Line this morning.

1. Watch what happens close in with 98L visiting Florida currently.

2. If you live in the Carolinas know 98L will be visiting you soon enough.

3. Watch the MDR wave as it moves towards the Islands.

4. The Gulf of Mexico bears watching really. Models are busy but in real time maybe something.

5. I'm going to remind you AGAIN... the set up this year keeps bugging me as it creates a possible Hurricane Donna like scenario in that a tropical wave moving WNW close to where 99L is now moving up over the islands could do a similar track through the Florida Straits or Keys, hook back towards the general Tampa area and then sling shot back across Florida or Georgia and make a run up the coast. Why you ask? Because every wave has come close to doing that so far this year and we also have that added ingredient of Cold Fronts that pull anything South of them North and Northeast. Yes they can also grab something and take it out to sea. We can pray, if you pray go for it... it's a crap shoot sort of game this year as fronts appear and hurricanes develop.