Tropics Quiet on Tuesday But We May See Fireworks Begin Around July 4th... July 8th - 10th Interesting. Model Discussion.
There but barely there.
Earthnull shows a small closed area.
We will come back to this area later today.
My favorite old school big view of the basin.
The wave that was 96L is still there.
It lost it's moniker but it's there.
Another follows it.
Area off OBX is there.
But it's moving to the South.
Being pushed to the South.
NHC isn't in love with it.
They may revisit it soon.
So what really is happening?
Models show a storm forming off OBX again.
But GFS and the EURO agree on this.
Going to keep this simple and basic today as there isn't much happening in the tropics. The Invest didn't pan out and the NHC is about to pull the plug on the yellow X with 0% chances. The Saharan Dust that's lighting up our skies with sometimes pretty coral sunsets or somber gray ones is on it's way out. Another plume comes off Africa and yet the last one is the one to beat for intensity of duration and the area it impacted along the way. The dance between waves and dust is as old as time. Really. Over time I've noticed that the path that SAL takes is often similar to the storms of late July and August during the period when fronts stay to the North and are less of a factor. This current pattern aligns with the multitude of forecasts that showed an inhernet weakness this year for waves to get into the Caribbean and travel West slowly lifting into the Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
This is a good link from the NHC that covers waves in depth and you learn much from the innuendo and choices of words used as well as the location of available moisture we are tracking.
I'm going to show you the best way to view models when nothing is really happening as it's about the process and the evolution of moisture and energy over a week's time and that says more than following a small weak vortex or trying to see if a Hurricane forms. They mirror the environment and show you what will be down the road, they also change in real time if something pops up or a cold front dies out or a wave splits and the energy on the North or South side begins to develop in ways the previous model didn't allude to so remember they update constantly.
Starting here with the GFS using models from www.tropicaltidbits.com.
Let's start at the beginning.
The set up that's been....
Note dusty coral and beige area in the Caribbean.
Over Florida where the SAL has been.
Aside from pop up showers it's dry.
Blues... moisture near the waves.
Around July 3rd the blues come back.
The orange beige retreats.
High in place.
Then a Low develops as you see below.
This area seems to be the Holy Grail for the GFS.
It keeps trying to produce something.
It keeps trying to produce something.
Yet this week was off due to SAL
But.... next week it's friendlier.
July 7th below.
Now the EURO
Notice again the progression of moisture in the EURO
Dry Caribbean ...
...barely any deep blues in the Atlantic.
July 9th blues are back in the Atlantic.
And a Low off the coast of the Carolinas.
I will say models differ on evolution.
But the end game is a storm forms in July.
Understand as always HOMEGROWN happens.
And it usually happens suddenly.
Like Surprise!
in 2020 I expect surprises.
I will say I expect a storm by July 8th.
A day before or after but yeah July 8th.
What form of a storm?
Can't say yet.
Check back for more thoughts.
Formation begins around July 4th...
... it's a process.
Something changes, something happens.
I wanted to post this below.
I know Joe is controversial.
Some love him.
Others hate him because of his politics.
I only care about his ability to use his words....
..and use them to convey weather.
He loves Weather History.
He's pretty damn fine with the rhymes.
Again note the ebb and flow.
But pretend this is the track for a hurricane.
It would make it into the Caribbean.
Up across the Yucatan Channel.
Into the Gulf of Mexico.
And take aim at a landfall.
For July and August this is a concern.
And homegrown pop up storms off the SE coast.
That's what concerns me.
The purpose of Tropical Waves is NOT to make Hurricanes. Their purpose is to produce moisture into the atmosphere that travels West and arrives in the Great Plains during the height of our growing season giving the United States a fantastic Bread Belt that many countries envy. It's an incredible set up as they roll West, WNW and then up into the Gulf of Mexico delivering rains to hungry crops and that's good. Sometimes they roll West into the Pacific helping spark EPAC storms and sometimes hurricanes happen but really they will keep rolling off of Africa and if you get lucky their moisture works its way up into the Applachaians making the Great Smokey Mountains look smokey. There's more to the story than that but gotta love those tropical waves. One will get a name in the not so distant future, sometime in July. And we should see a hurricane that comes from one of these waves have the potential for trouble in the Gulf of Mexico so enjoy the quiet it won't last.
You can use this link that is set to rain and thunder (I like that one) and toggle back and forth between the EURO and the GFS. I love the Windy site, but many don't realize you can do that so pointing it out.
As always all the models are on the top left of www.spaghettimodels.com so enjoy your day.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter (mostly weather) and Instagram (whatever)
posted by BobbiStorm @ 10:11 AM
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