Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 22, 2020

Updated! Four Forms From TD 95 - Most Likely Gets TD Status & Probably Becomes Dolly As It Put On Quite the Show This Afternoon. Tropics Monday... Something About Texas Keeps Sticking in My Head. SAL & Tropical Waves Duke It Out. Maybe Something HomeGrown Down the Tropical Road.




To be clear here...
This is Subtropical Depression #4
Cone below.



So as I said a few minutes ago when the NHC rushed out and colored in 95L red and I won't go into this deeply. Know they do have it forecast to be at 40 MPH so it could get the name Dolly, however they show it only being that strong for about 6 hours or so ...so that's consistent with 2020 so far. It's been a bit erratice in movement not aligned with models when it did that dip today to allow it to be over warmer water and wrap up nicely. So we will see what really happens, but not going to impress any storm chasers much I can tell you that. The forecast intensity is in the Tropical Discussion and shown below.


Think I may make a Hurricane for dinner.
Well to go with dinner, of course.
All these names and such little ACE.
Can hear a few friend's head's exploding right now.
it is what it is and it is FOUR.

***





Yes, it's definitely an over performer.
NHC wording below.
I'm expecting advisories at 5 PM...
...or 8PM or 11PM 


Where is it going?
Out to sea.
But how close to land and again.......
....as a Subtropical it can have a larger windfield.
High Surf, etc.. time will tell.
Real soon........



The NHC has obviously fast tracked this today, after changing their mind on it, and they upped it to 40% Orange and now it's Red with discussion on becoming a Tropical Depression. I'm still not in love with it because well it's Subtropical and models take it out to sea but this is 2020 so every Invest gets a name I guess.... or most.




If you are wondering on the D named storm for such a high latitutude let me take you back to 1962 when Daisy packed a big punch for a relatively weak system. Daisy was a late season storm not an early one so no two D storms are the same.




I was curious if 95L would develop last night...
...so being me I looked for D storms.
And wondered if Daisy had ever been used.
It was indeed.



I'll update with specifics IF the NHC upgrades soon.
Check back later... keep reading if you haven't done so.


www.spaghettimodels.com

Let's go with the middle squares on Spaghetti Models.
Nothing much going on as they walk back the circle.
NHC pulled the orange recast as yellow now.
Really don't want to waste the name Dolly...
...on some wishy washy subtropical. 
My baby brother had a fish named Dolly.
It died or committed suicide we aren't sure.
They went and got him another one.
But alas it wasn't Dolly.

We ain't got no Dolly today...
But down the road maybe soon enough.
Last night I was watching the MIMIC.
I was in a blue mood and thought that would help.
I kept watching that flow up into Texas.

My thoughts this morning:



 I went on Twitter today and Thor posted this image.
That's odd as we hadn't spoken on it.
Yet we both had it in our minds.
There's a theory that explains that...
similar solutions arrived at differently.
Yet at the same time in space.


Nope not watching any models.
I peek here and there but nope.
My friend Jim always tells me...
..a pot won't boil if u keep checking on it.
(He's actually wrong enough heat it boils...
... but yeah I get it)


Took a screen shot last night to talk on it today.
Because it just keeps hitting me...
... with every new wave of moisture there.
That at some point close in something may form.
Would be right spot according to climo too.

So think on that a bit and check back later.
No more blue mood thankfully.
I kind of love Mondays these days :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... my other younger brother loved this song when he was little.
My mother had some "Best of old country hits" but all I remember is....


The Yellow Rose of Texas. Wonder what other songs were on it. He probably remembers.

Oh... it wasn't Elvis on the record, but as I don't remember who sang it on that record. Let's just go with Elvis as it's fun. My mother liked Italian Crooners from Philly ..specifically. I think that's what she said... she said a lot of things while listening to music, honestly I wasn't always listening.

I was probably thinking on hurricanes.



posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:11 AM

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