New Wave Off Africa. Models. Discussion. Remnants of TD4 Moving Towards FL as RAIN. Will New Invest 95L Make It Past SAL into Carib? Hmnnn Stay Tuned. Memories of Dania Beach - Boomers - Jaxson's Ice Cream Parlor (still there... go fast)

Still at 20% in the 5Day

For a really wild ride loop this link below:

This post really is for Miami kids, though pretty sure others can relate in their own way. Miami kids grew up bored in the summer begging their parents on Saturday Night to "please can we go to Disney tomorrow??" and parents begging off just as fast. Yes, they bought that Florida Residence Pass that was good in the Dog Days of August. And, yet who really wants to pile in the car at 5 AM and drive up the Turnpike with kids fighting in the back seat and then spend most of the day til fireworks at 9 PM then drive back to Miami arriving home around 1:30 AM (if you were lucky) so usually unless Aunt Martha wanted to go see Disney, parents passed on the free entrance the Florida Residents got early on and later was just a huge discount? Yes that was a long run on sentence and a whole lot easier to deal with than 3 kids fighting on the Florida Turnpike for a long, ride to Disney.

Kids being kids didn't give up that easy. "Can we go to Lion Country Safari?" which was only up the road a few counties. IF they were lucky the parents agreed to go to Playword which was a ToysRUs type institution or agreed to make a backyard BBQ and set up the Slip and Slide. In the later part of the Century lol parents settled on Boomers a popular, local theme park.

Go Carts and Rollercoasters.

And lots of other stuff too..

If they were really lucky their parents agreed to go to Jaxson's for ice cream after. Years back Dania was the place to go on a Sunday afternoon for Miami kids whose parents would only go so far up the road. It's still the place to be as Ice Cream never goes out of style.

Everyone wanted to go to Disney, but sometimes on a Sunday afternoon you were lucky enough to get Boomers. South Florida will most likely get afternoon thunderstorms aka "boomers" as the left over remnants of TD4 as the wave that is left from that TD is now forecast to wander, weakly through the Florida Straits and across South Florida. And, that was more believable than the early "hit Florida with a hurricane" scenario the GFS was trying to sell earlier in the week. Flash Sale in July in the tropics gets you weak, westbound tropical waves not an E ticket ride at Disney that mostly old timers will get. Sort of like the gold label on the Halo Top Ice Cream this summer. If you haven't tried Halo Top, you probably will one way or the other. Everything has it's day in the sun, even XTD4 limping along being followed like Mary's proverbial lamb by the ULL.

Where ever XTD4 goes the ULL is sure to go.....................

So where does this leave us with regards to the new wave and the new model runs that are also started out "take me to Disney" or "I want to ride the Hurricane at Boomers!!" and will most likely get a trip to Walmart to buy a puzzle with a pretty picture of some tropical scene in the Caribbean and with luck has a chance of avoiding Cuba and Hispaniola and making it into the GOM (maybe) as some form of tropical moisture. A much more logical summertime trip in July than the whole "Can we drive the whole length of US1 this JULY!!!"  Long run on sentences for models that show African Waves making it to our part of the world.

The EURO has yet to really weigh in with anything extremely exciting and that in truth probably what will happen with a July wave trying to swim across the ocean. Anyone watch that Amelia Earhart special last night? You see where I'm going. And, most likely the EURO being really cool would want to go to Universal to see the Harry Potter exhibit way more than Disney World. Sorry Walt, but time marches on.....

What is now currently above.

Where it may be going down the road.

This image from www.tropicaltidbits.com was posted on www.flhurricane.com on a message board yesterday and is pretty valid today too. Why? Because I want everyone to focus on the track of this new wave (possibly Invest 95L should it get that far) for the next 3 days. And, then we can start making long term plans for a kick ass summer vacation destination somewhere. It's worth saying that this morning's run is way more logical than yesterday's and can't wait to see what it's showing tomorrow. 

Today's run gave up the East Coast Long Drive....

..and stays low going into the Caribbean.

And IF this wave gets designation that's logical in the short term.

Because Cousin SAL is still there being a Kill Joy for CV Waves.

Going to Spaghetti Models shown above..

Note TD4 remnants trying to flare up.

The wave departing from Africa.

A sea of Saharan Dust.

Another wave embedded in dust further W

And that's the tropics in July

One reason Jim Williams ignores them mostly til August.

But every once in a while a wave comes along...

...and does the dirty deed and gets the D name anyway.

So stay tuned.

Every wave has it's day...

...and every storm runs out of rain.

The question is will this even be Invest 95L?

Then we can worry on the Don name..

The GFS will have a new run soon.

Stay tuned...

Music to loop by... and here's the loop:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NHC/COMP/

Meteorology and music, can't go wrong...

...there's always a song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

You can get faster updates in real time on Twitter.

I'll be back if anything real happens.

Ps .. Boomers like TD4 is sadly gone... 

...but lives on in Youtube videos.

Hurricane Season 10 Days Away. Learn How to Evacuate ... Prepare and Be #HurricaneStrong

10 Days Til Hurricane Season.

You can watch as moisture moves West from Africa.

Across the Atlantic Ocean.

Moistening up the ITCZ

Moisture oozes N into the GOM

Clashes with cold fronts far inland.

But it begins to pool and fill in the E GOM.

Dry air pushes down, stretching everything out.

Everything is in flow, related, connected.

And we move closer to June 1st.

Water temps are warming up...

...well around the Florida coastline.

Epac is hot for sure...

East Africa has tropical waves.

But it's too soon to obsess.

Note the cold clouds above the ITCZ

It's just a matter of time.

Your local television channels are showing specials warning you about the Hurricane Season. How to prepare, how to be #Hurricanestrong and how to survive the aftermath of a hurricane. There are videos showing people boarding up businesses at the beach, stocking up on supplies for the days after landfall and how to get to your Emergency Shelter. And yet the season is really quite a ways off with the exception of that early Tropical Storm that forms down South of Cuba and threatens South Florida. Once in a while an early subtropical storm forms .... oh snap that happened already. It could happen again so watch those stagnant, stationary Upper Level Lows in the Atlantic. Stay on top of your game is the point I am making. Don't believe early discussion on forecasts for the season as they are forecasts... mere predictions based on scientific data that can be viewed differently by two different people. I'm purposely being redundant today if you haven't noticed.

Spoiler Alert if you see these near you....

... find out what they mean!

In truth we have miles to go of tornado chasing before we get into the heart of the Hurricane Season. Weather never takes a vacation it merely changes faces faster than kids did on AOL in 1997. We go with the flow, run with the tides and wait our turn and before you know it there is a 2 AM advisory because somewhere, someone has a watch or a warning. Not every storm is a Perfect Storm but you know them when you see them.... And, our perception of a perfect storm varies from "Oh Lord Please let it stay far away and go out to sea..." to a friend I had who always wished the storm would come and wash her world away so she could start over. A scientist wants to study, a forecaster wants to warn us and some of us want to be in the eye of the storm. Either way we are all in the same boat... waiting for Hurricane Season to begin on June 1st "officially" and that's 10 days away.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me on Twitter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_evacuation_route

Ps . . .