UPDATED 11 AM CONE....CAT FIVE IRMA...TS Jose TS Katia.. WHERE DO YOU EVACUATE TO IF YOU LIVE IN FLORIDA? IS IRMA I-95 Storm Up The Coast? Models Cluster on GA, SC & NC in 5 DAY CONE

UPDATED

Special notice from the NHC that there is site is loading slowly. It is NOT down just loading very slowly. You think? And TS Katia has formed and TS Jose should go Hurricane later today possibly.

11 AM CONE NHC

Radar Image of it making a move on PR

N Coast of PR seriously in it.

Irma in Motion.

The motion moving WNW... 

I'd say N of W to WNW currently.

Forecast to continue WNW.

Taking on PR as I type.

Continuing on with the evacuation discussion.

I-95 is not a good option.

If you drive out of FL..

...head W on I-10.

Why?

Wind probabilities now go N into VIRGINIA.

Raleigh is in it.

In fact according to NHC..

Raleigh could have winds Sunday Afternoon.

TROPICAL STORM winds.

Could being the key word.

From GA to NC odds are going up.

Along the coast.

Charleston is looking  bad at 11 AM.

That could change at 5 PM.

I still believe the 5 PM will be the reliable cone.

A lot of cities in that path.

Savannah.

Inland SC..

ALL of SC is in that map above.

Most of NC will be in map at 5 PM.

Looking better for Key West.

Note Cuba is no longer in wind probs

They are in the cone... 

...but not the wind probs.

The link to this product is below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/061444.shtml

Mirrors the NRL map I show often.

So what do I think? It's too soon to tell if Irma will turn OFF the coast of Florida or OVER the coast of Florida. Every wobble west or nw makes a difference but remember whether it seems logical or not a hurricane can and will turn hard right and often does. The stronger the hurricane, the more it wants to pull poleward. The moment the High behind it lets up even a bit or it sees a small opening it will grab it. Yes there is a bit of an issue of Category 5 Hurricanes have a momentum going but history has taught us when they see a door opening up to go North they take it fast. Will it take it fast enough to spare South Florida? I can't say right now. I can't tell my own kids so basically I am telling you what I am telling my children and close friends. It's not easy playing chicken with a Category 5 Hurricane headed straight to a multitude of densely populated cities from Miami north to Virginia. Beyond that we are looking at DC to NYC as being impacted in some possible way from Irma should it not go out to sea. We are watching a short wave to pull it... not a strong cold front grabbing it and sweeping it out to sea as would happen later in September.  I will update around 2 PM or if anything changes. 

At the very bottom of this post I am posting info on Jose and Katia. Yeah...the K storm has formed.

The eye of the beast.

That's what the media calls it...

It's name is Irma.

It's a name we will remember...

Looking to retire young..

Still 185 MPH as of 8 AM.

Pressure down to 918 MB.

WNW at 16 MPH

Note it's picked up speed a bit.

Not much but the trend is important.

That's IRMA. 

Look long... 

..you don't see many like her.

Cone from NRL

NAVY... they go wider than NHC

Got to protect their ships.

And... NHC often lags behind a bit.

Narrower cone.

Most important part of Discussion.

From NHC below.

Please read carefully...

..as in between the lines.

 I'm going to start here and go long on MY thoughts not the NHC but based on NHC discussion and personal discussion with mets I trust greatly. The image above is the thought going through everyone's head in South Florida or even Central Florida today. If they run... where do they run to? The forecast and the flip flopping models that are currently trending East make it a harder question to answer than how to prepare for it where they live.

The problem really here is "where to go" if you leave Miami or Naples. IF you decide to evacuate where do you go? Truth is.... you can't get a flight out of town currently unless you are a millionaire, fly 1st class often or know someone with a private plane. If you want to get on the road and drive North with half of the population where after you get past the traffic jam are you going to drive? A few of my kids looked into flights.... not an easy option. Unless you made a ticket days ago. My nephew is going to visit his cousins in Seattle. He has strong survival instincts, he booked that days ago.

So look at that image above that I drew with my favorite color purple. Then I'm putting the wind probs below.

Understand that based on the discussion I showed below the NHC is not ready to move the cone away from it's previous cone based on the EURO trending right towards the GFS on it's last run. So they will wait until the next run comes in and the 5 PM cone will be more important as an indicator than the 11 AM run. They go by all the models but they put heavy emphasis on the EURO and so will the EURO continue the trend to the East or hang tight where it is. 

The EYE of this storm is huge and unless it goes over a LARGE island ...they are called the GREATER ANTILLES for a reason... then it goes UP and OVER the islands maintaining it's maximum strength and size. It just keeps on rolling WNW but at some point it turns North and where and when remain the big question. Do you want to gamble your life and stay to experience a possible brush or tango with a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane in Miami or WPB area or do you want to protect your children from that and drive North. If you drive North where do you go? 

Note Atlanta is not in the Wind Probs now.. will it be at 11 AM or 5 PM? Fayetteville is NOW in the Wind Probs. That is an indication of where the 4th and 5th day part of the Cone will be down the road.

Remember the other day when I said this was an I-95 Hurricane? It could very well be or possibly a US1 Hurricane closer to the coast will see the storm. Remember US1 goes up to Maine. I'm not saying, I'm implying this hurricane may impact a wider part of the country than just Florida. If I was living in Naples I'd feel safer but not out of the woods. If I was living in Daytona Beach I'd be thinking "Seriously? Two back to back hurricanes after we never get any?" 

You can't make this stuff......

So let's say the storm goes up I-95 or A1A and takes down all the street signs with it, signal lights and erodes a few parts of A1A along the coast. Where ever you evacuate to by car you may need to stay for more than a few days as they are not letting people back into an area until they know it it safe. So yeah you need a friend, relative or a tourist destination you want to see outside that cone. To the LEFT of the Cone probably... I'm thinking Dollywood may get a lot of traffic this week from Florida people. Most everyone I know who has asked me (a lot of people) keep asking me on North Florida as a staging area to debate where to go next ...probably Atlanta. Everyone keeps asking me on Atlanta. Last night on TWC the previous Director of the NHC said nervously (he obviously has spoken to more Miamians than me) and warned people not to just get in the car and drive to Atlanta. But if not Atlanta where? Gulfport has a lot of motel rooms...  North Carolina? Yeah in the short term we look good, but note the wind probs. They show Fayetteville in the wind probs. Is Raleigh and Rocky Mount in the 11 AM wind probs? 

The analog storms for this dangerous hurricane as of now are:

Floyd.

Matthew.

Hugo blended with Hazel.

I'm putting a lot of weight on Hazel.

Any of those hurricane tracks would take this ONTO land not a glancing blow at the Outer Banks. And all put inland areas in the cross hairs.

So say you go to relatives up the coast... if the storm is moving in do you stay and ride it out there or travel again?

You see this is really, honestly what is going on with every person from Miami to Tampa who has texted me or messaged me on multiple social media forms of communication.

And I cannot assure them if they stay in Tampa or Miami they will be fine and only get a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane. Not yet, by the time I can it's too late to leave. 

It's a gamble. You are gambling and playing chicken with an epic, once in a lifetime hurricane.

Now let's go back to the beginning. Read the previous blog  from early September ....if you have time ... it's old but the analog storms are still valid days later.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/09/major-hurricane-irma-and-models.html

OLD MODELS

EARLY MODELS FOR IRMA

Early  models implied turns off coast of FL

Pulls North towards Carolinas.

Sometimes those early models are right.

After flip flopping models dance around.

They go back to the earlier models.

Not always but blend them.. you see?

And here we are waiting for the 11 AM to come in and trust me it's not gonna give you hard answers to those questions but the powers that be will play it very safe and cautious (as they should) in the South Florida area. Currently they are about to tell people in evacuation zones in Dade County to hit the road.

Again ................to where? To relatives who live West of I95 in Doral or Pembroke Pines? What if Irma moves West, wobbles...lunges west while just staying off shore (bounces in, bounces out) and the eye wall goes from Naples to Miami? Or Miami to Nassau... it goes over Bimini and Miami is still in the eye wall? It's a nightmare for a government official.

As Mike said on Facebook Live yesterday. He can be wrong and keep his website. I can be wrong and people will remember but most likely continue to read me. The NHC bears the weight of all of the people in the path of their storm and they have higher ups to answer to. Those good government jobs go bad when you make a big mistake and people complain. And, they sometimes can't sleep at night and when they do they sleep with the phone/laptop next to their bed setting it to the times the models come in... watching every wobble in the hurricane. 

So in 3 days we will have a better idea where this storm is going to go as in LANDFALL and how strong it really will be ... but in 3 days it will be too late to just get in the car and drive out. 

So that is the big question? You hunker down where you can and you pray. If the ceiling begins to cave in you put the kids in a closet and sit against the door. You go to a bathtub, put kids in it and sit on top of the mattress praying they stay safe. 

Flooding is less an issue here as the forward speed of the storm should keep it moving fast enough that this is not a Harvey issue... it's a WIND issue. And it's easier to run from the water than to run from the wind. At that point you need a good place to hide. If you stay in South Florida choose wisely. The house must have shutters (good ones) and then figure out which interior rooms with small windows are the safest to hunker down. Make sure you have lots of batteries and a good radio so you can follow the movements of the storm when the power goes out. And, that you can take to the bank. Unless Irma makes a FAST HARD RIGHT TURN in the Bahamas ... you will lose power.

And the reason we sat up all night listening to Bryan Norcross on the radio is ... because that is all we had. The radio and the voice of Bryan Norcross was the only show in town. We love him, he got us through it but it was the only place to go... hunkered down in the dark with the sound of the wind howling and the house being buffeted by strong winds and the voice of Bryan Norcross talking on the radio. Make sure you have a BATTERY POWERED RADIO and LOTS OF BATTERIES. 

You need batteries more than beer. Trust me.

I'll update later today with more discussion on model runs and how if at all they have changed. I will update this post at 11 AM with the new information but keeping this discussion here until the 5 PM. Even after 5 PM this information will be relevant.

Stay safe, be careful and stay informed on the storm ... don't just listen online to model talk and stay off of Facebook as your main source of info unless you are listening to Mike Live on Facebook.. a lot of Fake Weather News on Facebook... this is not a Cat 6 and it's not wiping Florida off the map. But it's going to give Floridians stories to tell for generations to come.

If I had to draw a cone I'd keep it over Florida but I'm more sure on where it is going in the long term than I am the short term. It will make a second landfall IF it makes actual landfall in Florida and it may keep going much further North than any can imagine as it takes longer for a hurricane that has been a Cat 5 for days to fall apart. Timing is going to be everything.

2nd Landfall or 1st if it stays just offshore Florida.

Anywhere from Sea Islands, Georgia to Wilmington, NC.

Special concerns from Charleston to Ocean Isle Beach.

Both my MBs may be in play. Miami Beach and Myrtle Beach.

Use the site below in multiple ways... preparation for the storm... current info. Mike has it all.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Busy 2017 Hurricane Season.

Jose is really pumping.

Could be a hurricane now even...

....but let's stay focused on Irma.

I know a few who worry on Jose and NC

But that's way way way too soon to say.

More later.

Updating in real time.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... If you leave take pictures of your home and any valuables you want to put in claims for from the Insurance companies unless you just recently updated. You will need PROOF what it looked like before the storm and what the valuables are... if you have a safe, put what you do not take with you in the safe. Document what you need to show the insurance company. Much easier today with cellphones than waiting for pictures to develop and having to buy film.

2 PM Update. Possible Cat 4 Down the Road... OFFICIALLY HURRICANE UPDATED AT 1 PM BY NHC Texas and Hurricane Harvey. Areas East of Texas Need To Stay Vigilant and Far Inland Up to Austin Watch Carefully For Flash Flooding. Could Harvey Become a Major Hurricane? The Possibility is There..

Ongoing information coming in from the NHC.
They have upped the five day forecast.
Intensity forecast that is...
.... just under Cat 4 strength in 36 hours!!!



Wider view and something to think on..



NHC currently has upped the forecast.
Explanation is below (NHC)

Salient part.

Now forecast to be 125 MPH

That's just shy of Cat 4...

So there are multiple problems here.

I want to be clear here on what I am saying. The forecast that has given us the forecast cone, short term and long term was not based on information they currently possess. Those models were forecast for a weak Hurricane in the GOM and now the scenario has changed and we have a Hurricane that is massive in size and forecast to be knocking on Category 4 strength. You cannot blow a forecast that badly and have the rest of it verify perfectly. Hopefully with better data from the recent recon and the stronger winds, lower pressure and current position the next few forecasts may be better. It's impossible to mess up intensity and timing of intensification so much and have the rest of it verify as it's a mathematical equation. If you change one factor, the answer changes. Why am I saying this? Because if you are in the cone or near the cone take Harvey with extreme caution and maximize your preparations as soon as possible. Not tomorrow when we "see what we will see" but NOW. As things may change and they may change fast. Note the map from the NRL below and understand it always goes wider than the NHC cone as ... well they have to protect their interests so follow the Navy on this one and if you are in that grid... you could feel some impact from very dangerous Hurricane Harvey when it becomes a strong Major hurricane.

NOTE THERE IS EXTREMELY STRONG WEATHER WAY OUT IN THE GOM FAR FROM THE CENTER. That area NE of the EYE has hurricane force winds in it and so this needs to be watched carefully. 

If you live inside this shaded grid...

...or very close be very concerned.

Again and this is only one thought. If the anticyclone that builds above Hurricane Harvey as it becomes a Major Hurricane it is possible if it finds a weakness in the ridge it busts through that ride and takes off rather than stalling and moves far inland. Well, the weather could move far inland (think Matthew in NC after the storm changed directions the weather moved in the old direction) and talking serious Flash Flooding in the Hill Country as well as major coastal damage to structures as well as the beach itself. IF it continues to sit half on and half off the coastline as earlier forecasts (before the new information) we can have a hurricane that is partly over water, not losing strength yet the wicked weather associated with it can keep going inland. I hope that makes sense but trust me, if you live up near San Antonio and Austin do not think this is a coastal event only. And don't expect yesterday's forecast to be tomorrow's forecast, things are changing rapidly.

Again the next few model runs should show something different, as they are now working with the exact location of Harvey and a forecast of 125 MPH winds in 36 hours.

I'll update later and continue live blogging with information that is important and needs to be disseminated in order to save people's lives. Being very honest here knowledge is power and there are many people in this area that haven't experienced a Major Hurricane and unless you have been through one... you just can't imagine. Whatever you think you can imagine, it's way more dangerous and more complex. You can board up a building, but in areas where there is new construction, for example, they are not going to take down scaffolding (there is no time) and that goes airborne and well "hurricane proof" windows are not always so hurricane proof. This is about as bad as it gets for an area that is prone to serious flooding due to the shape of the bay bottom meaning a Higher Storm Surge than other parts of the world get. 

More later... 

nhc.noaa.gov

http://www.weather.gov/

Very brief update on HURRICANE Harvey

That's official.

Forecast to be a Major Hurricane.

Pressure down and dropping.

A developing hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico ...
...is awesome to watch from far away.

Earlier at 11 AM the  NHC danced around the fact that an eye like feature had developed in Tropical Storm Harvey and they mentioned the pressure has dropped and they believe winds will go up and I quote "with a pressure this low, it is likely that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane" and that's likely the biggest understatement of the year. Harvey is even amping up the convection close to Florida taking up the whole of the Gulf of Mexico in ways.

NHC forecasts Harvey will be 115 MPH in 36 hours. That would make Harvey a Major Hurricane and that's the NHC talking, not just me.  I did say earlier I wouldn't be surprised not based on models but based on watching satellite imagery of Harvey. Many have said it and indeed TWC refers to it as an EYE WALL as does Levi Cowan on his update (link below) so it's time for those aircraft that never went into Gert to make the call regarding upgrade to Hurricane with Harvey. Sorry sarcasm is as nice as I can get here, it is what it is and it's obvious what it is.........

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The truth is people in the path or near the path really need to prepare. Wide areas far from the center can be hit with tornadoes, inland flooding and if the models are correct and the steering currents break down then this can evolve over the next few days and through the whole weekend. 

One small possibility is that if and when Harvey goes Cat 3 then there is a chance it can influence the steering currents. A Major Hurricane can bust a ridge easier or lean into one area and help rearrange the upper level flow as they are their own separate sort of hurricane. A high develops often aloft and that can slightly alter the overall steering currents. Will have to see how this plays out in real time.

Note that weather is already moving towards the areas under watches and warnings. Strong squalls out ahead of the storm.

Cantore discusses the tornado threat.

Economy may take a hit as well.

From oil well to rice beds Texas is rich in resources.

It's over populated so the number of people in it's path is huge.

Texas has not taken a hit like this in a long time.

That's a hurricane.

Done deal.

Just a matter of when NHC makes it "official"

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

Also because it is growing in width.

A large hurricane can break down a high easier..

..than a weak one.

You can also check out the link below.

He knows surf, Texas has a large coastline.

http://dabuh.com/forecast/

60 MPH Tropical Storm...

..knocking hard on Hurricane Strength

986 MB and dropping like a rock.

Note that IF Harvey becomes a Hurricane as I expect it will sooner rather than later and expands it's wind field (which will happen) then this cone above will be widened out possibly in future advisory packages. The area that could be under the gun could go wider unless Harvey becomes a small, compact Hurricane in which case the hurricane wind field will have to be calculated carefully. Stay tuned, check back often. By the time finish editing this Harvey will be stronger than the stated 60 MPH. If you live in the path or near the path of what will be Hurricane Harvey please take this extremely seriously and just because there has been a major drought of land falling hurricanes does not mean it will continue. Harvey may be the drought buster and in the language of meteorologists it will up the ACE really quickly for the 2017 Hurricane Season.

Again a reminder.

When you see GREEN it's intensifying.

When the Green is in the middle of red.

An eye is forming.

You can take that to the bank.

Models still are messy on the 5th day.

Consistent in the short term.

Another great product on Mike's site.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Beyond the basics this morning of intensity, forward speed, motion, direction and whether we trust the models or not I want to discuss Texas and how hurricanes impact it differently. When I say differently I mean that because Texas is a diverse state; a land of it's own and it's a tale of two countries. Texas Hill Country and Coastal Bays and Bayous and both have their own inherent problems though flooding impacts them differently.

A good place to start as always is the NWS.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/events/txhurricanehistory.pdf

The hill country around Austin and beyond has elevation and sudden dips in the elevation and creeks that have no water in them unless a storm moves in and then the water rushes through them taking with it anything in it's path. It's a disconnect when you grow up around East Coast rivers to be driving through that part of Texas and you see a sign stating a Creek is there with some local colorful name and yet there is not a drop of water in it. Looks like a rock bed a geologist would be studying to find igneous or metamorphic rocks when suddenly a trickle of water becomes a rushing torrent and his research project and his very life could be in danger if he does not get out fast!

Leaving some blurbs here from Wikipedia. Some of Texas Hill country is wide open, beautiful and known for it's incredible spring flowers abundant everywhere. Other areas have higher elevation and other areas are actually cities and towns where people live and carefully watch for any talk of flash flooding.

As this relates to Harvey...

Note the situation overview below.

 

Cities far from the immediate path of Harvey..

..are watching Harvey far inland.

Below is from San Angelo, Texas.

Then we move down to the coast.

The beautiful Texas coast.

Fishing, beaching, boating.

Just getting away from it all.

Harvey is an unwelcome visitor.

Great video below to put this in perspective.

http://www.extremestorms.com/

Randomly picking the town Matagorda Bay as it's a popular hurricane destination and a good example of the problems the coastal towns deal with vs the hill country far inland. Coastal towns are used to tropical systems making landfall. They are not used to strong hurricanes making landfall as it has been a while. That leads to underestimating them with people who think they have seen a real hurricane, yet were on the outer bands or had strong weather from a Tropical Storm. A strong hurricane is way different from a strong tropical storm. I was in Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach in 1992 and trust me... people who think they know what a hurricane is do not know unless they have been through a real hurricane and lived to tell about it. Jim Williams knows hurricanes and putting his link below for the city I'm writing about today. Randomly choosing that city as it's a good smaller town to talk about rather than the big cities like Galveston where the media is camped out this morning.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/matagorda.htm

A good guide to the top ten Texas beaches below.

http://www.onlyinyourstate.com/texas/amazing-beaches-tx/

Often the homes are built up on stilts.

Because it floods easily.

http://www.matagordabay.com/lodging-page4.htm

If you have the money and the time check out that link for a sweet beach rental. 

Hurricane Ike flooded out that area badly. Bolivar Island in particular took a huge hit.

I wrote about this on my blog. Please read later as it's a good guide to as what could happen and what did happen and what will happen again in this part of the country along the coast.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2008/09/ikes-aftermath-bolivar-peninsula-past.html

As for Houston they are on alert. The newer models and cones take Harvey a bit more to the West than to the East and the steering currents are still a question. I say a question as steering currents are prone to suddenly jerking left or right and a trof is stronger than it looks and grabs the hurricane or a high builds in .... everything is fluid, remember that. And, again if this becomes a strong hurricane (and that could happen) it is more prone to any tug, pull or invitation to go North that the atmosphere is putting out there. A stronger, well wrapped hurricane is bad for Texas and makes the flood threat lessen in places such as Louisiana and Mississippi. Also worth noting that some models veer it to the left harder and move it more into Tex Mex vs wandering up the Mississippi River Valley merging with a front. There are just so many intangibles.

And adding that the bayous around Houston are another area vastly different from the beaches along the coast and the Hill Country inland.

The biggest intangible currently is how strong Harvey will be and personally in this set up I would not rule out Category 2 and I would not be surprised if this becomes a Major Hurricane. I am not saying it will; I am saying I would not be surprised.

I'll be updating throughout the day. I wanted to take the time today to highlight the problems in the path of Harvey. We all know what the 1900 Hurricane did to Galveston but there is a world beyond Galveston and Houston and each of those worlds have their own devils they will be having to face when Hurricane Harvey makes landfall. Again, I would not be surprised if it becomes a Major Hurricane. Spinning, taking up the whole Gulf of Mexico it seems today and over very warm water with low shear. Near Hurricane Strength now even if the official forecast says otherwise. That forecast will be updated. I'll update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Again NOW is the time to prepare and figure out if you need to evacuate and if not to figure out what you will do if you do not. The time to get a plan was months ago when it was quiet, now is the time to carefully execute that plan. If you have friends or family in the path of Harvey you might want to call them and double check where they will be and how they will stay in touch with you as best they can. 

Ps..

One of my favorite old movies.

Shame he wasn't a meteorologist.

They missed a good plot like there.

Steve should have been a storm chaser..