Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Sunday AM UPDATED! Invest 91L ... Will It Become Tropical Storm Barry? Stay Tuned. Recon Scheduled ... Are You Prepared for Hurricane Season? Tips and Things To Think ON... Pretend Chantal and Erin Are Out there NOW... Headed to You! What Would You Do?

Sunday Morning Update.
Nothing much to update.
Still holding at 60%

Note the mess of moisture across Tex Ok area.
That doesn't need tropical reinforcements.
The area off of the East Coast from an old front.
Invest 91L in the BOC

This morning's Selfie from the NRL

Not there yet.....
....but the ingredients are there.
Put it all in motion.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Compare and contrast from Saturday Night.

Again this not a real system.
It's a potential system.
An area that some models favor for development.
An area the NHC is evaluating and analyzing.
Currently an Invest not a Storm.

Where's it going?
Models shown below.
Sunday Morning models.

Oh do you have your Hurricane Season Tee Shirt?
Order fast ;)
I have mine
Went out for drinks Saturday night with my husband.
I had a hurricane.... of course.
Wore my shirt.
The Season is officially on...

So my thoughts for the 2019 Season?

You know that old song... Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you begin you begin with...... oh....oops.... with B, C, D because the NHC awarded the A name to a one night stand off the East Coast. Next name up is Barry and as there is an Invest trying to form into a named storm in the Bay of Campeche... we may be looking at a briefly there Barry soon taking a long, slow route along the coast half over water, half over land and as most of it is trying to keep it's toes in the water we may have the real deal sooner rather than later. You can see by it's presentation it wants to spin and run with the ball so to speak in the Tex Mex region near the border. The bigger problem comes later in that it's moisture would hook up with a strong flow of moisture headed for places that don't need more rainfall.

Sunday Morning.

Some consolidation shown above.
Still much of this is in the Pacific.

Saturday Night below.
Compare and contrast with above.

I know we've been watching this for days.
Part of it was in the Epac.
Part of it was in the SW Carib.
And it's "circulation center" seemed over land.
Now it has emerged into the BOC...
Shear forecasts verified and shear is weaker.
Water is warm.
We could have lift off as soon as.......
....hurricane recon goes in tomorrow as planned.

We are definitely in the Highly Favorable range.
Water temperature wise that is......

Details of Invest 91L are below.

This is NOT a named storm... yet.
Though if Andrea is any example.
Barry is in the wings.
This is a great site Mike puts on his page.
Play around with it...
...learn it!

Another good link to keep for this season is Levi Cowan.
He has a floater up and more info on 91L

What I want you to take away from this blog tonight is really a bottom line thing. This Invest is an example of why to watch the tropics even when the NHC main page says nothing is happening for the next five days and then suddenly they introduce an Invest that's drinking Red Bull! Andrea arrived briefly on the scene after days of them showing nothing happening. That was fine as Andrea was out in the middle of nowhere going nowhere but it can happen in the Gulf of Mexico often that something that seems like it won't develop suddenly does and the next thing you know is you missed the early yellow circle and there's a named storm out there. Your Whatsapp group is going nuts and you wonder how that happened. Well, if you are reading this blog and watching Mike on Spaghetti Models I'm pretty sure you won't be taken off guard by Barry or Chantal so take this as a notice that things move fast in the tropics. Stay on top of it when making your weekend or travel plans for the summer.

Someone should convince the NHC to use the Ferris name.
Don't you think?
Okay, maybe they are afraid to... 
F storms are always problematic!

I want to start off today asking you to read an old blog.
From June 1st of last year.
I spoke on my concern for a Carolina Landfall...
...and a Gulf of Mexico Landfall.
It's a reminder for new people I know what I'm talking about.
I wrote about a concern on Inland Flooding.... 
... sadly I was on the money with that concern.

Reading back over what I wrote I amazed myself.
I don't promote myself as much as I could.
So learning from some of the best.
Later please read that blog.
And remember it was written June 1st last year.
Before Florence and Michael.
And if you read around you'll see........
.....I believed in Florence when others called her a Fish storm.

My next concern is to again beg you to prepare for the Hurricane Season.

Always follow @PhilFerro7 in the S FL area!

Please remember to think outside the box when putting together Hurricane Supplies. Use the Dollar Store, Walmart and Amazon and especially watch clearance racks that have great things that are usually near their expiration date and as you only will need them for the next several months they are a great investment. Let's get real strawberry jam doesn't really go bad if you buy it a few months before it's "best sold by" date and will be appreciated if you lose power and are eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark.  If you don't use them and you are spared a real hit by a tropical system donate them to your local food bank. It's a win win no matter how you slice it!

Do you need extra vitamins or medicine? Stock up and always keep one extra month's supply of what you consider an essential. Some people consider Red Bull an essential ... well until their doctor tells them to lay off the Red Bull in the emergency room but if you have low blood pressure go for it! If you have high blood pressure make sure you have an extra month's supply of meds. Nothing will raise your blood pressure faster than trying to eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches in the dark with the power out and the AC off... 

Become familiar with new apps, satellite loops (many have changed or are gone) and take advantage of the many new ways the NHC and NWS are using to try and give you the data directly from the Source so you don't have to believe everything Aunt Martha puts in the Family WhatsApp group!

Get to know websites you use often. Mike's Page 2 and Page 3 are valuable and filled with links you may love and need. When watching his Facebook Live (and I know you all do) watch the various ways Mike uses your favorite sites and learn. Mike's a great teacher. Earthnull for instance has faces there you can see beyond it's main page we show so often online.

We aren't really there yet.
But the NHC really likes it.....

Next suggestion I have for y'all....
.... regarding Hurricane Preparation.

Prepare as if a Category 4 is headed to your door and you prefer evacuating rather than seeing what it would be like to ride out the storm in your house and see how it really takes a Cat 4 Hurricane. If you want to evacuate where would you go? Figure it out NOW! Traveling far away to Aunt Martha might make it difficult to get back home to assess any damage to your house. Moving up the road to a Quality Inn if you don't have the money to fly to Aunt Martha may put you in a place impacted often by inland flooding. This happened last year during Hurricane Florence when people who lived along the coast took rooms up in Fayetteville and then had to be evacuated further inland when flooding became a problem there.  It's easier to plan out this impromptu vacation when you do it now online without a Cat 4 Chantal breathing down your back. 

If you would need to temporarily relocate your children during the school year do you have a relative or friend who would take them in? I don't mean to scare you but after the hell families went through after Hurricane Michael that is reminiscent of Katrina this is a reality that may hit home. Months after Michael there's still barely a place where Jim Cantore can get coffee in Mexico Beach!  Note when I travel I always carry small packs of instant coffee with me. They taste fresher and all your need is hot water. If I do that when visiting relatives who don't use caffeine on road trips, trust me it's good to keep in your hurricane supplies whether staying home or traveling.  If you are a caffeine fiend figure out how and where you'll get your hit of caffeine with the power off and the water not usable ... what will you do? After Katrina hit Miami and we lost power a newbie to the area who had just moved there from Manhattan freaked when the power was out and the local restaurants were closed. She walked over to the nearby Burger King and found it closed. She was in shock... it never occurred to her if her power went out she couldn't find a nearby restaurant open for her morning coffee. Newbies to hurricane country should ask old timers what to do and what their town is like before making a list of things you need for your hurricane supplies.

Learn. Educate. Google. 

Pretend Chantal is out there now with Erin on her tail and your city is not far from the extrapolated NHC Cone. Figure out NOW where you will go and what you will do. Either way, tell your relatives where you will go and stay and update them often. Make a family WhatsApp Group the way you would for a baby reveal ;)

Which name speaks to you..........
....obviously I'm loving Chantal.
And as a fan of One Life to Live...
How can you ignore Dorian?

As always I'll pray for you to stay safe in the storm but I beg you to take hurricane preparation seriously. If you want to live in paradise you need to pay the price and that might be the cost of a generator or a way of out of paradise if Chantal comes to call.

As for me personally I'm in Carolina tonight, but that's a moving target and I may be somewhere else tomorrow night. The song "On the Road Again" comes to mind. Stay tuned and find out where I update tomorrow night from... Truthfully it's been oh my gosh beautiful all day here in Raleigh. It's like someone turned off the Heat Ray Gun and I can breathe and  go for a walk again, have breakfast on the balcony and and remember why I love Carolina which lately felt a lot more like Death Valley. Thank you Lord for moving that Huge High off our neck! Did anyone ever really invent that Heat Ray Death Gun? Pretty sure Lex Luthor tried....

The Coast of Carolina carries some chance for a coastal subtropical storm or tropical attempt at a name down the road. We may make it to Wendy if the NHC persists in this naming frenzy. It's a favored region climo wise for early June development and it's never really too soon in June at this location for a low to form into some early promo for hurricane season to remind you it's hurricane season. Prepare and beware it may be a mean season. Winter came early to the Carolinas with a November Snow Storm. Summer came early in May with a historic heat wave. What will hurricane season do I wonder. You should wonder too and if you live in areas that have been having flooding be it from strong rainfall or river flooding I'd worry about anything that gets up into the Mississippi River Valley in the near term.

Bottom Line:
If this becomes Barry.
And if Barry follows the track the models forecast.
And hooks up with huge amounts of moisture.
We could see more epic flooding inland.
I hate to say that but it's true.

Look at that Purple Scorpio there ... the sea of blue.
Inside the wet forest of green.
That's a lot of rain.
If this comes together it would be a sad start to the Hurricane Season.
A Hurricane Season I expect to include multiple landfalls.
Trust me I hope I'm wrong.
So start preparing now.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.
Follow me there for real time live updates.
And join in the discussion.

Ps... Again read what I wrote on June 1st last year.. 2018.

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At 12:49 AM, Blogger Jay Schwartz said...

Happy and safe hurricane season. I watched "Twister" last night and ate a peanut-jelly sandwich. It was the least I could do from here. :P


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