Hurricane Season 2020 Forecast & Facts As We Know Them in Late April.
2020 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic Basin.
The names above are a FACT.
Not a FORECAST.
The first named storm will be Arthur.
Followed by Bertha.
The below is a FORECAST.
It's worth noting quality trumps quantity.
We can have more named storms but weak ones.
Conditions exist that inhibit them from strengthening.
When conditions exist that could enhance strengthening.
We have to pay attention and be ready to take action.
So don't look at last year's 18 named storms...
..and think oh CSU shows 2 less.
Last year we had many named storms ...
.... that were extremely weak!
Barely there ... but they got a name.
While some weak named storms always show up...
.. this year I'm worried on many stronger Hurricanes.
Major Hurricanes that could make landfall.
As always hope for the best ...
...but prepare for the worst.
The graphics are from TWC.
As always the NHC is the official source of information.
As I write this blog there is a Tornado Warning in Georgia.
Another line of storms is tracing the last line of storms.
Easter Sunday Tornadoes were deadly.
Hoping today's tornadoes ....
...will not be deadly.
It's worth mentioning here Spaghetti Models.
Mike has put up a new feature available on YouTube.
Note the top square below.
When you click on that graphic.
It will take you to a variety of loops
Or to a featured area under a warning.
Currently it's showing the Tornado Warned area.
Please add it to your subscribed sites on YouTube.
As mentioned yesterday in my rant...
Many of us go to YouTube for news and updates.
I missed today's Cuomo Press Conference...
With 2 daughters living in New York I watch it usually.
... I'll check it out on YouTube after proofing this blog.
In 2020 we have many options.
From the Apps we use to the websites we use.
From the people we subscribe to ...
... to the links others share with us.
As I said yesterday "choose wisely"
Currently nothing is in the tropics to worry on...
We are in Severe Weather Season still.
A tornado warning exists today in Georgia.
That system moves into Florida and the Carolinas soon.
Off Africa there are your early pre-season waves.
And in the N Atlantic there are remnants of the last system.
When discussing "forecasts" for the Hurricane Season I need to mention Covid-19 because they will at some point collide and we must deal with it in an appropriate way. In the same way I'm giving an example of how forecasts and hyped headlines can change rapidly when dealing with Covid-19 from no worries on using a mask to cities and states advising you must wear a mask if you go to the store our outside in public. In the same way forecasts for a possibly weak season based on cool water temperatures may lead many to letting down their guard to suddenly having the rug pulled out from below them when a Major Hurricane such as Dorian is forecast to track dangerously close to their home towns in Florida. Forecasts are based on facts known at that time and they are subject to change so watch for updates frequently and learn from everything including our battle with Covid-19.
As promised yesterday I would buckle down today and begin a serious look at the 2020 Hurricane Season. It's been hard for me to jump into discussing this early as I normally do as we are all going through a difficult time dealing with the fast moving stream of information regarding Covid-19. Many of us have been personally impacted by the disease and the deaths of people we know and love as every day brings a new tragic story as well sometimes a happy story of someone leaving the hospital and going home that had previously been given low chances of surviving the disease. There seems to be a randomness to Covid-19 in that sometimes a young healthy person dies despite the discussion on older people being most at risk and then you read a story about some older person in their 90s who survived the disease. I believe all of the hype on how it mostly kills older people was over played and gave many younger people the misconception that they were almost invincible and that they only had to worry that their grandparents didn't die. While that is true on some levels, many young people have health conditions that go unnoticed or they simply were not able to fight off the disease. How often have you read about a high school football player who collapsed on a field in what seemed to be the healthiest phase of his life to only later find out he had a hidden heart defect that caused his death? The same such person would be a high risk if they contracted Covid-19 as often once in the hospital battling the disease the heart or the kidneys begin to collapse leading to a very long stay in the hospital or a devastating death for the family members who never expected he or she would succumb to the disease.
While mentioning the fact here that sometimes "facts" can be misconceived or misunderstood or sometimes later after learning more "facts" change - it's worth remembering that when looking at forecasts for the 2020 Hurricane Season. Sometimes, though rarely, weather conditions change unusually fast and a colder than average winter on the East Coast turns to a mild, winter without any accumulation of snow and despite the predictions made by experts "something changed" and that happened recently when the basketball season ended only to be followed by other sports stopping and theaters closing as we evolved into a world where the landscape looks different from any that we could have ever imagined. Oil dropped to a DOLLAR a BARREL and while gas is extremely cheap most of us are not currently commuting anywhere so supply and demand slammed an already difficult time for those who were used to being rich from the high price of oil. The Stock Market at all time record highs suddenly hit a wall and fell for days on end while many watched the value of their portfolios drop way lower than ever expected. While many said a correction was coming, no one saw the free fall that happened when the reality of the Corona Virus that was renamed Covid-19 became apparent and impacted the Stock Market.
Forecasts are predictions based on what we know currently as facts. Facts can often change.
Let's look back at the early Pandemic Predictions:
Cruise ship travel would most likely be okay.
No need to wear masks or gloves just stay a safe distance from others.
Social Distancing rules evolved from 4 feet to 6 feet to people feeling safer staying home.
Air Travel shouldn't be a problem was an early prediction and then.... we learned more facts.
Things changed.
The picture above is from the New York Times.
(Why isn't she wearing gloves?)
Hmnn ....
Note how spaced out passengers are here.
On Monday my best friend's two adult children who live in New York had to find a flight to Miami for the funeral for their father who died suddenly during the Covid-19 crisis in Miami to be with their other two siblings living there. The flights on JetBlue cost them $600 round trip each and there were only 50 passengers allowed on the plane with everyone spaced out wearing mandatory face masks and gloves. On Tuesday I watched with my best friend on Facebook Live that was live streamed the small funeral for friends and his many grandchildren to watch. Life in 2020 seems unreal but after a few weeks this has become "normal" and I mention it as I know many of us are going through similar sudden decisions on traveling to a funeral or wishing we could go to someone's house to comfort them and maybe bring a casserole but we are now limited to talking on Facebook Messenger, sharing pictures on Instagram and making a brief condolence call.
Below we have Alaska Airline crew members.
(Why don't they have on masks?
I know they are now wearing them.)
Maybe they thought the mask images would be scary.
The thought of flying now IS scary.
Not from a plane crashing or terrorism.
But from it being a "flying petri dish"
as many call it these days.
Link to their ongoing blog with helpful info.
Remember it's Alaska Air - No N.
The sweet crew member on board taught me that.
I flew Alaska Air in late February...
A Seattle trip squeezed in fast to see my kids there.
Because I knew things would change fast.
Spoiler Alert: They changed even faster than I expected.
Faster than forecast... if you get my drift.
So while reading 2020 Forecasts for the Hurricane Season.
Remember they are forecasts.....
....they may change in real time.
They may verify... they may not.
Let's hope they do not because the forecasts are wicked.
Wicked in that all signs seem GO for a strong hurricane season.
Why you ask?
Showing five reasons below today.
I'll continue to list other reasons soon.
Today I'm posting graphics from 2 meteorologists.
And every day or two I'll post two more experts.
You can compare and contrast their forecasts.
Today I'm starting with Crown Weather and CSU.
Why those two?
Because I have always admired their forecasts.
I admire and respect many others.
I'll post them too over the next few weeks.
Today I'm listing 5 Factors to remember.
Again I'll post more factors in future posts.
1. El Nino is not expected to be a factor this year. Neutral or more likely La Nina conditions will exist and it is possible if not probable that La Nina may show up as we move into August and September. IF that happens, it would favor a more active, dangerous hurricane season.
Note No El Nino doesn't mean La Nina ... maybe it stays Neutral but La Nina is looking possible.
2. Sea Surface Temperature forecasts continue to be warmer in areas that would produce hurricanes.
3. Forecasts for areas in Africa that may have more rainfall than normal could reduce the impact of SAL (Saharan Dust) but remember that SAL predictions are always prone to error and seasonally it usually disappears at the worst time as we move towards late August and early September. While watching it reign in May and June and July we often end up with a plethora of headlines giving the general public a sense of a false reality that gets ripped out from under them when SAL begins to disappear at the worst time possible Currently SAL may me mitigated by moist conditions nearby in Africa. Think of this as being told you don't need to wear a "face mask" and then being told you "could if you want" then being told you will not be allowed in a store without one and then being told it's better to wear one when out in public around others. Again remember this ...things change and often they sometimes change fast.
4. Signs in the Indian Ocean show we will have a strong hurricane season. Why watch the Indian Ocean? Because what happens in the Indian Ocean impacts Africa and what happens in Africa directly begins to impact us as we move into the heart of the Hurricane Season.
5. The forecast is for a lack of Wind Shear across many areas for this coming Hurricane Season that would allow strong tropical waves to develop into hurricanes without being torn apart by shear. We often see incredibly formed tropical waves make it across the Atlantic and yet as they battle what is wind shear they succumb to the shear the way a young, seemingly healthy young football player on the field during practice collapses as mentioned previously. Very often a very moist, large, messy tropical wave turns into a poorly organized tropical storm and then finding a fast sweet spot develops into a hurricane closer to our side of the world. But strong shear or negative conditions can literally topple the named storm everyone is worried on the way a large, tall, improperly secured crane topples over when hit with stronger than expected winds.
Below is Hurricane Debby's NOAA report.
Wind shear suddenly strengthened.
And Hurricane Debby toppled over like a falling crane.
There's more to the story but this is the official one below.
The hype in Miami was off the charts.
People were packing up in the Florida Keys.
This old forecast track shows why people were worried.
An image of Debby in her "better days" before...
...wind shear began to strengthen.
I mention this as even now..
Shear Forecasts are often iffy ...
...and often Shear develops fast.
Or wind shear suddenly disappears.
Wind shear forecasts favor a busy hurricane season.
During El Nino wind shear protects some areas.
Especially the Caribbean and the GOM.
This year we cannot rely on that wind shear to be there.
I'll give more reasons I am concerned on the 2020 Hurricane Season later as we move into May and the concern for early season storms forming before June 1st becomes a reality.
But for now the 5 factors listed above are what I want you to take away from today's blog.
Someone I leaned to trust and enjoy reading is Rob from www.crownweather.com that I commonly refer to as "Crown Weather" as I learned over time and across many avenues of social media (as we go way back) to appreciate his cautiousness and when he shows concern to take it seriously. In 2017, 2018 and 2019 his Pre Season Maps were spot on and he nailed the locations Hurricane Florence would threaten eventually landfall as well as Hurricane Michael months ahead of the peak of the hurricane season. The year that Maria and Irma traipsed across the Atlantic, slamming into islands in their path and scaring everyone on the East Coast and Florida he drew those possible tracks in his Pre-Season maps. It really doesn't get better than that for picking up on current and long term trends and applying them to predicting where hurricanes may track and make landfall.
www.crownweather.com is a pay service, you can write him and ask for payment or donation information but it's better than the average information you will find on Twitter, Instagram, your family WhatsApp Group or where ever you get your general information. He posts regularly online on Twitter with excellent information. Note the people on TV in your local viewing area do a great job but honestly they rarely veer away from the official NHC or the CSU forecast shown below and until a hurricane is headed directly towards your town their information is informative yet basic. When you want better information with more details sometimes you gotta pay for it or really know how to find it online.
The link to Rob on Twitter
@crownweather (easy to remember)
If you see this picture you have the right person.
Understand Rob is a very good writer.
A good communicator.
It's good for meteorologists to be able to ...
...clearly communicate information.
That's important.
I'm using a few of his images below.
When I said shear could be low....
.... that would be a problem.
If the forecast verifies.
Note the areas below in blue.
If shear is low there....
It means waves turn into named storms.
And are not blown apart by shear.
How strong they would get is a question.
But the potential is there for strengthening.
Again graphics from Crown Weather.
Below Average Wind Shear is not good.
It allows hurricanes to form.
Often those regions in the Carib have high wind shear.
The wind shear protects the Carib and ....
......inhibits then from strengthening.
This would favor storms that track West...
..... into Central America.
Or they could drift over the Yuctan...
...as storms often do.
Then strengthen in the GOM
Once in the GOM ..someone gets hit.
Understand?
@bobbistorm on Twitter for any questions.
Below we have "peak of the season"
Note this would favor Caribbean/GOM storms.
Also storms coming at Florida from many directions.
Storms such as Cleo that came up from Cuba.
Or any hurricane that hits from the ESE...
...heading WNW
Look at Cleo coming up from Cuba.
Then look at the graphic below.
It shows how that could happen.
Every hurricane is different.
Every year is different in some way.
The graphic below I've shown before.
Rob will fine tune it over time.
When you understand the shear problem shown above.
As well as where warm water may be.
Steering currents.
You will better understand the graphic below.
It shows areas of the coastline in danger.
In danger as per our early forecasts.
2020 has been a year of unusual events....
...that pop up fast suddenly.
Things change.
From Covid 19 to Tornadoes in the South.
So use it as a guide early on.
East Coast would be vulnerable.
Note below CSU shows this also.
And GOM is a concern.
The Caribbean is a high concern.
Note also CSU points this out below.
So moving on to the CSU report.
Lots of detail and more academic.
But you can understand if it you go slow.
And many of you here know your lingo.
Several important point are mentioned by Phil.
An old picture of Phil with Dr. Gray.
Phil carries on Dr. Gray's legacy.
He's older now but still has very youthful looks.
You can follow him on Twitter.
@philklotzbach
Graphics from the CSU forecast that I find particularly relevant to remember.
The first graph below shows you in bright red lines how this season's potential seems to be way above average for trouble, exceeding Climatology. Basically saying higher odds on it being stronger than most average seasons based on "climo" as we often refer to it. Generally climo wins out over hype and worry when watching tropical waves forming into hurricanes, but in sometimes forecasts are heaped high with positive factors vs negative factors and we all know this 2020 how we prefer negative results to positive ones so keep that in mind. You may read the whole report linked below to understand this graphic better, but you can look at it and see that the forecast for 2020 currently exceeds the normal climo probabilities.
Please refer to the link below and look for this graphic in the report towards the end of the long report. I say long in a good way as year back when I would carefully read Dr. Gray's report I would learn much from reading and studying the details. Sometimes the forecast verified all too well and other times such as in 1997 when the "Mother of All El Ninos" came out of nowhere much like today's Covid-19 and the forecast was a bust it ended up being a very slow hurricane season. But, whether the forecast verifies or is a bust or is somewhere in between the point of reading the long, detailed report is that you learn much on the whys and hows a season is impacted by specific factors and trust me you will know more than you knew before you took the time to read it. And, thanks to Covid-19 and our new world where many of us can't go to work or the hairdresser or the Mall or the movies or meet Aunt Dolly or Sally at our favorite dining spots we have a bit more down time and can read up and research topics we love to learn more about so if you got the time... sit down with a cup of coffee or tea or whatever you enjoy and read and learn. Spoiler alert...when you click on this image or go to the report it shows that all areas are at an enhanced risk this year but especially the East Coast 92% and the Caribbean 94% much higher than the average year. Also refer to his report as sometimes he includes the Florida Peninsular in the "East Coast" statistics so be sure what he means when he uses terminology that may not jive with your vision of the Hurricane Coast.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf
LASTLY... Bobbi's Bottom Line here today is this:
I'm concerned that the Year of Covid-19 could evolve into The Year of Deadly Hurricanes and that is not hype and no I cannot tell you if this will be the Bertha to get the name finally retired or Dolly will or won't be a Category 5. But what I can tell you is that this year's current forecast based on current conditions portends a deadly hurricane season for someone and we may have multiple deadly Major Hurricanes as we had when Irma and Maria came close together.
I am mentioning Irma because the sort of wild rush to evacuate Florida and the search for safe shelters will be severely negatively impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 crisis. How so? Well most of us are low on funds and even those who had money put away for an emergency have less money put away for an emergency. Many people are out of work, travel is discouraged and contact with people at rest stops or buying gas are now health concerns and as for food chain lines.... as I said earlier things change fast these days. We've been told food chains would not be impacted yet currently several chicken, pork and meat producers have had to close up because people tested positive. They will open up again in theory soon but at times our "food supply chain" may be impacted so keep that in mind and hopefully it will not be a factor.
We were told to stop "hoarding food" because the food chain lines will be fine. We were also told not to go out often, so we aren't so much hoarding as buying food that will last for several weeks before we buckle up into our hazmat suits or begin putting on our masks or gloves and our now every present hoodie covering our head and venturing out in search of pasta and tuna fish and whatever produce that we hope will last more than a week or two. Perhaps you are the type that isn't wearing a mask nor wearing gloves and going shopping as you were while trying to maintain a safe distance from people ...especially those who are coughing or who look sick.... you still may have to wait in line a long time come July or August to get into a store to buy hurricane supplies way longer than you normally do when you think "this is crazy" because what if we hit a peak again in August and stores limit shoppers and you may get online for your local Publix blocks away from the actual store. I'm not saying this will happen. I am saying this could happen and you MUST figure it into your Hurricane Season Preparation this year.
So if you are at the store this week buy an extra few tins of tuna and put them in a box and do not use them. Buy an extra peanut butter and hide it away the way you would a candy bar from your hungry teenagers. Buy an extra bottle of bleach or any disinfectant supplies you can get your hands on for the Hurricane Season. And, I hate to say this but it is very possible that this virus goes on deep into 2021 as Pandemics similar to the Spanish Flu don't just disappear overnight when it's convenient for us or when the calendar year changes so if you don't use the tuna by November 30th, 2020 feel free to transfer your Hurricane Supplies to your Covid-19 supplies.
I'll continue to show different predictions for this Hurricane Season and add layers of perspective for you to think on and research yourself over the next month. I'll talk on Analog Years given by many including the years that I believe are Analog Years and show old hurricanes from those years. Thanks for letting me rant yesterday as I needed to get that off my chest and be able to move on to being serious about the Hurricane Season because to be honest we really need to take this Hurricane Season seriously because we've seen from recent tornadoes, severe weather, hail and earthquakes Mother Nature is not in quarantine or socially distancing and she has ripped people's homes that they were staying home in apart and tossed them wildly off their foundations in deadly tornadoes. That's heartbreaking but it should be a stark reminder to you that not only can't you reason with hurricane season you can't reason with Mother Nature either.
Be Safe.... BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Labels: 2020, coronavirus, covid19, graphs, History, hurricanes, hurricaneseaosn, maps, music, pandemics, preparation, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 11:48 AM
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