Tropics Quiet Today. Danger on the Plains from Tornadoes & Flooding Remain. Thoughts on How We Convey Real Time Weather Threats Referencing Article by Marshall Shepherd

A quick perusal of Spaghetti Models shows there are no hurricanes today.

There is not even the ghost of Subtropical Storm Andrea.

Nothing is expected to form in the next 5 days.

Okay in truth some convection does remain....

But it is not expected to reform so let's move on.

There are things to think on down the road.

Areas in the Caribbean that sometimes flare up in early June.

They flare up there and move North into the Gulf of Mexico.

And sometimes they flare up there and move into the E Pacific.

Convection is congregating down there.

Again it moves into the Epac where a storm may form.

I could tell you models have been a little awkward lately.

A few keep predicting development down there.

Long range models are meant to be visited often.

They are for entertainment purposes only.

The system on the Plains is still dangerous ...

...and still on the move.

It's far from over.

With Memorial Day Weekend coming remember this...

It's a good time to start preparing for Hurricane Season.

Today's blog is about a look back at this week in weather.

The high expectations for long tracking tornadoes... 

... and the reality that tornadoes did happen.

They were not long tracking EF5 Twisters.

But they destroyed people's lives.

And yet people yelled "busted forecast!!"

The forecast for dangerous weather verified.

The problem is how we convey what is dangerous.

The problem is our personal expectation of dangerous.,

The dangerous situation there continues.

And hurricane season is just around the corner.

The article below inspired me to write this today.

I'll talk models and satellite loops tomorrow.

I want to revisit some tropical weather history...

History repeats, it's good to learn from history.

The link to this article is below.

It's an article worth reading.

It's especially valuable as we head into the Hurricane Season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/21/three-problems-with-the-word-bust-during-real-time-weather-threats/#290dc83f5338 This is an excellent article that should open up our minds as to how we perceive real time threats or feel the need to communicate "what is dangerous" to the general public again often in real time. As the 2019 Hurricane Season is around the corner I find the need often to remind you to prepare for hurricane season. It is especially difficult at times after someone somewhere puts out predictions on how this may or may not be a busy or quiet hurricane season. These often circulated articles announce that the water is cold in the Middle of the Atlantic Ocean or Saharan Dust is blowing in the wind keeping the hurricane season weak or El Nino may or may not be leaving written often to capture the public's attention and get retweeted online. Public perception of danger is sometimes mitigated or heightened by these headlines and often there is a "boy who cried wolf" issue that arises later in the season when a hurricane veers away from a potential landfall and stays safely out in the Gulf Stream only kicking up big waves at the beach or when long tracking EF5 tornadoes do not form and people in the warned area let their guard down.

Long paragraph I know, but this is seriously a problem in today's world where people scroll through tweets or images on Instagram. Back in the the day people would complain that television news people wrote hyped up headlines or news promos that were merely "sound bites" to get you to check back at 11 PM for the late news. This is really a communication issue as old as time as I am sure somewhere cave people argued over dramatic cave drawings of lightning hitting a horse that was way over the top and not realistic. No disrespect to cave people I personally always loved the GEICO cave guy the best!

It's a problem as old as time in ways, and yet in today's very fast paced world it has it's own new unique issues. In today's world we have issues not problems. After a Presidential election years back it was discovered that by releasing early predictions when the East Coast polls closed on National News it had negatively impacted voter turn out on the West Coast. Many interviewed said "why bother voting as we were told who won already" and that's sad but it happened. News stations then agreed they would wait until the polls in the Pacific Time Zone were closed before making early predictions based on exit polls. If you are expecting large wedge tornadoes to be on the ground wiping out towns such as Moore and no big, huge EF5 wedge tornadoes wipe out Moore or Oklahoma City then suddenly we read on Facebook, Twitter and in our multiple Whats App groups that the forecast was a bust. This irresponsible message mistakenly gives many in the warned area the message to "stop worrying about it" when tornadoes were indeed on the rampage late into the night and early morning hours. Then those same people online and go negative about the media delivering the message saying that it was all hype and nothing more. The truth is the set up was there, there was potential and it was a forecast that thankfully didn't verify in the way that many thought it would.

The proper reaction should be to be thankful it was not worse.

And to be aware it's an ongoing dangerous situation.

As Reed tweeted yesterday.

Again it was only a "bust" in that long trackers didn't show up.

Other destructive tornadoes showed up.

And the dangers continue.

We are very happy the set up busted.

Again the "set up" that the forecast was based on.

Perception here is the devil in the details.

No it was not hype that the possibility was there for long tracking tornadoes, but there was also the potential for short flare ups of multiple tornadoes everywhere and the ongoing inherent risk of flooding. In the same way that if someone else has surgery you may think of it as minor surgery if it happens to you it is major surgery. If your town was severely devastated by a short lived, strong tornado you will remember it forever and consider the forecast to not have been a bust for a particularly dangerous situation.

Oddly I think of a Derecho when I think of PDS.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/20120629svrwx

Waveland Mississippi Before and After Katrina.

Waveland's destruction often gets forgotten in the greater picture.

Take a look back at Hurricane Katrina that tore through South Florida as the first in several tropical systems that year to visit Florida, however most people obviously only remember New Orleans when they hear the name Hurricane Katrina. After Florida .... Hurricane Katrina made a second landfall near Waveland in Mississippi creating the slowly evolving horrible levee failure in the New Orleans area. Perception is in the eye of the beholder or whose home personally was damaged. Yes, Katrina was a National Tragedy that made us rethink many things but it was a personal disaster memory for many people far from New Orleans. Hurricanes history teaches us that hurricanes often do that especially the big ones such as Betsy in 1965 and Andrew in 1992 that made double landfalls in both Florida and Louisiana as they traced a path around a very strong high pressure area in the Atlantic that steers them into the Gulf of Mexico for additional landfalls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_Florida

History does repeat sometimes doesn't it?

The exact details are always a bit different.

Lastly after the fact discussion on a storm being a "bust" is really not necessary as many considered the Hurricane Irma forecast for Florida being wiped off the map a bust because it didn't destroy Miami or Tampa, however tell that to my friend in Big Pine Key who lost the family home and was forced to demolish it's remnants recently. There is always so much hype online and on air regarding large targets such as Oklahoma City in Tornado Season or Miami in the Hurricane Season. While Category 5 Hurricane Michael was in the slow process of coming together down near the Yucatan and Cuba many meteorologists doubted online complaining the forecast was poor and that "this thing is never coming together" in the same way that model forecasts for huge flooding in Houston from Harvey were played down as "garbage runs" and "probably won't happen" and yet the forecast actually played out even worse than forecast. Many tweeted on Twitter how the landfall of Harvey near Rockport seemed not to be that bad.... in the same way back when people watching New Orleans survive the winds of Katrina better than expected went suddenly quiet when the water began to rise.

There is much to think on as we work our way through the rest of the Tornado Season and move towards the Hurricane Season. When a 7.0 earthquake in a large city is first reported by some AP reporter it usually reads "no deaths reported" and we should know that means "no deaths reported yet" as we should not believe everything we read and wait until the rest of the story plays out.

Why the NWS went with the PDS warning? I'm sure it was to err on the side of caution and with concern that a PDS situation could happen. Why the NHC went with upgrading to Subtropical Storm Andrea I don't know, but I am sure they had their reason. It's not my job to second guess these things I prefer reminding you that now is the time to prepare for Hurricane Season before a hurricane is knocking at your door and the store is out of toilet paper, tuna fish and peanut butter! 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Ask the people who were impacted by a compact, Category 4 Hurricane Charley that seemingly surprised them because the media seemed to imply that Tampa was under the gun and they were in the outer edge of the cone from the NHC. It was not a busted forecast as much as it was not properly communicated that the danger of any small town in that part of the cone in Florida was liable to get the brunt of the hurricane moving parallel to the coastline before turning in towards landfall. 

Something to think on and to remember. No forecast can be 100% correct in the details even though the forecast for dangerous severe weather or a land falling hurricane will verify. Are you prepared is the bigger question?

Read the article linked to above and remember this applies to hurricane season and dramatic warnings on dire danger about to happen and how a busted forecast can have a boomerang danger such as flooding or even worse ignorance of similar warnings the next time a hurricane is headed your way.

Knowledge is power. Find out what you personally need to do to prepare for Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Some video below from a friend who passed away but is always remembered from Hurricane Charley. Again... just because Tampa was not the landfall the forecast was not a bust and .... remember that sometime down the road Tampa will get a landfall again as they did in 1921 when a Category 4 hurricane made landfall in October. That is not hype it is merely learning from history. Turn the sound of it you prefer on CycloneJim's video on Category 4 Huricane Charley. 

Tampa Bay 1921 Hurricane not Charley.

Video from Charley below.

Hurricane Lane. Will It or Won't It Hit Hawaii? Even a Close Call Could Cause Serious Problems. ATLANTIC BASIN Slowly Coming to Life. I'm Still Thinking Aug 25th Give or Take to See Switch Flipped

Newest update lowers intensity 5 MPH to Cat 4.

Track remains very similar.

Concerns are real for different dangers.

I waited for the newest update to come out before posting this blog. I'm not going to make other changes as whatever the NHC says now will change a bit in three hours even though for the most part the forecast will verify. They have done a good job warning the people who live in the path of weather from Hurricane Lane to prepare as they always do. They do NOT control the weather so they cannot make Lane miss Hawaii but they can do their best to prepare and give people warnings to take timely precautions. I may update later this evening as things evolve. But for now suffice to say that they are getting ready for Hurricane Lane, storm chasers are on their way and the NHC recon is on top of it as to gathering as much information as possible to constantly update their forecast and fine tune it in real time. As someone who lived on Miami Beach during Hurricane Andrew I can tell you personally that when the NHC downgraded it five mph back to Cat 4 before landfall I was not impressed much nor did I feel any safer because it's sustained winds were five miles per hour less. Later it was analyzed and changed back to a Category 5 at landfall. Andrew was a different storm making a direct hit on Miami Dade County, however the comparisons are valid in both size and intensity. Hopefully Hawaii will get lucky and only get "weather" from Lane and nothing more but it's too soon to know for sure what will happen. The rest of the images and discussion are from the earlier advisory. Not much changed.

Newest Cone below.

Always watch the trend.

So far the trend has been offshore.
But while in the cone you need to prepare.

Things can change fast with hurricanes.

Lane.... Hurricane Lane.

All about Hurricane Lane today.

Note towards the bottom I discuss the Atlantic.

And why we need to watch the wave train soon.

Things are slowly progressing to go "boom" soon there!

I've avoided talking to much on Hurricane Lane as I'm not an expert in that part of the Pacific and there has been a huge amount of hype online as the alliteration of "HURRICANE LANE AIMED TO HIT HAWAII" seems too hard for people looking for good Click Bait links to ignore. Note it "HITS HAWAII" vs "SLAMS INTO HAWAII" is what I mean by alliteration. A Cyclone would "SLAM INTO SIAM" by example. Since newspapers first hit the new stands writers have been trying to make up headlines that sell! Nothing really changes just because we get our news online.

Let's face it we all love the dream of a big Hawaii vacation during the depths of winter with memories of watching Hawaiian Eye before a new generation began watching Hawaii Five-0. To be honest I'm  sure a lot of baby boomers watch that as the Millenials watch Netflix and Roku and Sling, however Hawaii is always a tropical background for a beautiful story be it drama or romance as it's tropical beauty always grabs our attention.

Luckily throughout history hurricanes usually miss Hawaii completely though often they have had problems with flooding from hurricanes that came perilously close enough to create damage and cause life threatening floods. Sometimes, when we get into a certain pattern Hawaii becomes harassed by hurricanes that seem not to follow the game plan and insist on making landfall in Hawaii. The list below will show you the many hurricanes that came near by with little damage and just heavy rain. Then you get into a few years where a pattern prevailed that was different from the norm and Hawaii was affected by multiple hurricanes even in the same year or back to back years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes

1980s caused some problems.

1985 especially.

Note I've said 1985 is an analog year for this year.

It's playing out in Hawaii.

Let's see what happens later in the Atlantic Basin.

1990s below show a rare story of landfalling storms.

1992

Georgine

Iniki

Orlene

Again here's the link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes

From the site above with reference to 1992

"

• September 1992: Hurricane Iniki caused more damage than any other hurricane to affect Hawaiʻi since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11. Iniki caused $3.1 billion in damage, mainly to Kauai.^[23] It remains the costliest East/Central Pacific hurricane on record. Six died as a result. Iniki brought winds of 140 miles per hour (230 km/h).^[22]
• September 1992: Hurricane Orlene struck Hawaii as a tropical depression causing heavy rainfall, washing out roads, shortly after Iniki ravaged the island.^[22]"

I cut and pasted the part about 1992 as it really is the benchmark year in the memory of many who remember Hurricane Iniki. As Jim said on TWC recently it made landfall during the filming of Jurassaic Park. Funny how Cantore and I have the same memories. Many remember Iniki that way, especially if you knew someone who was on the location shot affected by the rare landfall of Iniki. I heard it was more exciting than the actual movie in ways. They went there to bring dinosaurs to life and the tropics came to life. Life has a funny way of surprising you when you least expect it.

I really cannot say whether Lane will or won't hit Hawaii directly. The NHC seems to have low confidence in the long range part of the forecast yet wrote excellent discussion this morning trying to highlight the dangers and probabilities and as always they will update in real time. It would be easy for me to go with the law of averages and say that Lane will stay to the South of the Island Chain. The trend has been more and more in that direction as previously the Cone showed it moving up through the Islands. Basically Lane is tracing the High Pressure much like strong hurricanes do in the Atlantic and where and when the ridge breaks down tells the actual story of where and when the hurricane makes the move and how fast it makes that turn.  Add in cooler waters near by and you have a difficult forecast where a hurricane will often do what it can to stay alive. No I am not throwing in drama here or personalizing the storm... hurricanes more away from high pressure and towards low pressure as they need the low pressure the way most plants need sunshine and water.

Salient part of discussion.

The Key Points!!

The always popular cone.

The previous cone is shown below.

It's a good trend away from direct landfall.

But only a trend and things change often.

So we keep watching.

The world is watching.

@iCylone is chasing the other two for a 2 in 1 chase.

Note how small Lane is in comparison above.

Let me say this lastly.

There is a trio of hurricanes in the Pacific.

While Lane is a Cat 4 currently.

It is size wise the smallest.

That could help Hawaii.

Tightly wound storms can cause localized damage.

If Lane stays that way...

..or does it come unwound and undone?

Keep watching.

A real drama.

@hurricanetrack on Twitter

Mark Sudduth will be there to record whatever happens.

He's really great and capturing statistics and useful info.

Stay tuned....

As for the Atlantic.

There has been a slight change in there as well.

Moisture has been surging across the ITCZ

A large tropical wave that does not form will do that.

We have had several. 

The next set of waves arrive in a better environment.

Less shear, warmer water and moisture laden air.

@dabuh as always gives great visual and musical coverage.

For someone like me that's like...

...getting lemon meringue pie for dessert ;)

There's a reason we call it a wave train.......

He's also watching the Pacific.

Isn't Cimaron a great name?

I love it personally.

Stay tuned.

I'd show some loops and sats but......

...they are having a problem with them today.

Very, very annoying.

Extremely annoying.

I feel like we have less options of late than before.

And those options keep going down.

I'm mentioning this because...

Some people are posting old pictures online.

And not aware they are doing so.

Nothing much gets past Cranky.

Nice of him to share and remind people.

Waiting for the Atlantic to come alive in a "normal" "average" year is a slow process whereby SAL begins to get exhausted and loses it's grip on the Main Development Region where it sucks the life out of all the really beautiful early waves. Then the shear begins to lessen as the waves begin to roll west into less of a head wind. The water warms up in late August and September it's usually just the right temperature to ignite a fire under those waves rolling off in the wave train we talk about so often. Note any waves that make it across under these healthier conditions are prone to blow up fast in very warm water over a sweet spot close to the coast. This can happen off the Florida coast near a dangling cold front that soon went stationary or in the Gulf of Mexico where the water currently is red hot warm. As pressures at the surface begin to drop waves that did not develop in the MDR find a place they prefer to actually develop close in as did Katrina, Betsy and Andrew. Having a robust set up in the Atlantic does create a year like 2017 that delivered us Irma and Maria, however having a good set up in the Atlantic any time allows waves to stay together and not die and find their strength closer in and also sometimes delivers hurricanes to our shores. It's not an either or set up, it's just the way the tropics work and one way or another Mother Nature finds a way to shuffle the energy from the equator up to the poles by way of hurricanes. 

It's not coincidence that the switch for the cold fronts to start being more viable is also the same time as when hurricanes begin to start rolling, rolling west. Currently the westbound hurricanes are in the Pacific. That could change over the next few weeks. Until then watch any cold front that makes it into the Gulf of Mexico or slides off the Outer Banks or congregates as a stationary front off the East Coast for possible Home Grown action. Stay tuned.

Til then think on how awesome the study of weather and hurricane is in that it brings together people from so many different backgrounds who have different perspectives and from them all we learn so much more by growing, sharing, collaborating and learning something new every day, every year. Diversely different and yet all focused on one thing... meteorology and trying to give the public the best information in a timely manner to give them a warning to prepare for the storm. Music is often like that as well.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps As much as I often say "not my ocean" when it comes to covering Pacific hurricanes it is true that Hurricane Lane seems to be historic and may get the job done that Hurricane Hector did not accomplish. The truth is that Hurricane Recon began in the PACIFIC during WW2 when the US troops found out that the biggest weapon the Japanese had that put our troops in danger was in fact intense hurricanes they were unfamiliar with and needed to find a way of keeping track of ...so they began surveillance of those Pacific storms. After the war with a surplus of planes and pilots looking to fly this morphed into the program that we know know as "Hurricane Recon" so it's worth taking a look back at that while wondering if Hurricane Lane can do what Hurricane Hector failed to do.

A look back at Hurricane Hector.

Hurricane Lane.

Mike has some great loops on Lane.

He also has some radar sites up as well.

You can watch in real time.

Links below to how Hurricane Hunters got their start.

https://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/articles/airrecon.aspx

http://navalaviationnews.navylive.dodlive.mil/2011/12/15/storm-hunters/