Invest 91L Trying to Become Barry... It's a Slow Process of Consolidation of Convection and Center Coming Together... Warm Water.

Short update as I am out of town on vacation currently in Monsey NY going to Crown Heights in a little while it seems. My wifi is weak and what's weaker than my wifi is Invest 91L. It's currently still at 60% chances and being watched for slow formation over the next few days. You can see the rain.... the moisture... the convection down in the BOC just moving off of the Yucatan. The "center" is a guess of where the real center will develop, because being honest with you it does not really have a true center. Coordinates are posted on various sites based on data from the NHC but it's in the formation stages still.

The problem with this set up is once shear relaxes enough and the bright convection manages to be where the most probable center is nothing is going to happen. The problem with that is the water is very warm and when and if it forms it can pull together fast over warm, tropical waters. Below is a screen shot from Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits. He has a link if you would like to see to a floater over the area being investigated... that is what an Invest is... an area being investigated and watched for probable formation. If it forms it becomes a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Barry, The fly in the ointment is that many of the models have pulled further to the right and if that verifies it would mean "Barry" would be over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer and become more of a problem than if it crashes into the border zone as a barely formed Barry.

That said.... nothing much is happening.

And that is what was supposed to happen.

It flares up, it wanes.

Convection seems to shift around.

It has a very broad "center" 

And it's presentation on Earthnull is actually better.

Better than yesterday.

There's a consolidation going on there.

Compare that with yesterday.

Where it was competing with areas in the EPAC

Yesterday below.

The "center" was still over land.

And a competing center was stronger in the Pacific.

So obviously Invest 91L is making progress.

When it makes enough progress recon will go in.

This could go on for a while.

I'll check back in later and update as warranted.

Note.... there are tropical waves moving westbound.

There is an area of convection near an old frontal boundary.

Nothing screams SHARK ....

...but there are fish in the water.

Keep watching.

www.spaghettimodels.com has lots of good links.

I'll update when there is something to say more...

Again the real kicker in this is...

...the convection will go up into areas already flooded.

This is more than just a tropical storm situation.

And while it's down there it's raining...

..and small towns and villages are dealing with constant rain.

Until it moves.....

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Follow me there for live time updates.

Ps... My thanks to Hava Java Monsey

For the greatest breakfast around.

And oh my gosh the desserts and the wifi actually works well !

(I'm up in the country by my daughter....

... feels like I'm at a sleep away camp but nicer)

https://www.havajavaonline.com/