Tropics Wednesday. 90E Up to 70% Red Ready for Designation Status Epac. Watching the Atlantic. Hurricane History Flora 1963

Quick update this morning on Invest 90E in the EPAC that is currently a red area with a 70% chance of development and designation. As I said yesterday it has a small doorway of opportunity being that far West before it hits cooler water to develop into at least a Tropical Depression. Why you may ask do we care about the Eastern Pacific when we are mostly obsessed with the Tropical Atlantic? Because it is all related, connected and it's a process watching the tropics in our part of the world become active. Every year is different, yet all have similarities and this is the time of year we watch in real time as the process plays out.

To start out I will point out that the NRL has a track map of sorts now up and that is usually a foreshadowing sign of an upgrade to designation status in the near future. It's a step up in the process of watching the area of troubled, tropical weather and where it may go as it relates to the NRL site's priorities. For newbies the NRL the N in NRL should remind you of everything Naval, Navy and ships at sea.

Discussion from the NHC below.

As far as the Atlantic goes things are moving along as they do in May as patterns shift and water temperatures warm up. Tropical Waves leave Africa and head West at a very low latitude but they are fun to watch. The frontal boundary is still draped off the coast of Florida based in the Bahamas and a tropical wave will mix it up with the start of the May Monsoons in the Miami area over the weekend. If you are planning a Mother's Day Brunch out or Buffet or Breakfast at a place on the water know you may have to deal with rain at some point over the weekend. It's May in the Miami and adjacent South Florida area. 

If you have forgotten what that is like (and if you have lived there ever you probably haven't) it looks a lot like this in May in Miami Dade and the Broward County area.

May in Miami serves as a reminder...

...that Hurricane Season begins in June.

A bit of Hurricane History below regarding Hurricane Flora in 1963. A hurricane that followed a similar but different lower path to Maria and Irma from last year but a hurricane that turned away before slamming into Florida; Haiti and Cuba did not fair as well and it's a classic Category 4 October Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. In retrospect I was a little disappointed girl that did not get to see Flora up close but in fact I got lucky. We all got lucky and we hope this year luck is on our side with regard to Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby and all those that will form in the Atlantic Basin.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I'll update if anything big changes later today. As always I'd rather worry on hurricanes than earthquakes and volcanoes!

Jamaican Flooding. Rain for Haiti and Maybe Miami & FL. Carib Blob a Hot Mess of Convection. Stay Tuned...

This is a big story today in the Caribbean.

Not because it is going to get a name.

But because it has caused destruction in Jamaica.

You can Google it ...

Or I will for you...

And as the rains end in Jamaica...

...the rains begin in Hispaniola 

Phil Ferro on WSVN in Miami highlights the concerns.

He also highlights the hope for rain in South Florida.

Parts of South Florida need rain, most of Central Florida needs rain and North Florida is in a dangerous drought with forest fires plaguing parts of the area. Usually late May brings monsoonal rains in South Florida. The truth is the chances of rain are higher because it is disorganized. Large disorganized areas of convection meandering around in the Caribbean masked by a trof that isn't moving anywhere fast usher in the rain faster than anything else this time of year. Happens, a frontal boundary stalled out, moisture coming up from South America, caught in the flow being pulled north as yet another frontal boundary dips South. The system that caused dramatic footage of Twisters on the planes shown by storm chasers across the Internet yesterday will also dip down and take a look around the Caribbean to see what more damage it can do later in the week.

For now there is a trench of High Pressure.

A finger or foot down in the Caribbean.

As always it's an atmospheric drama.

Stay tuned.

Stay informed.

I'll update if anything changes.

In other parts of the world we are having a tropical heatwave. The heat bubble that has been situated over Florida is moving North. A taste of summer in May along with cherries and tomatoes in the market on sale everywhere.

It won't last forever but it is a sign of the times.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter at @Bobbistorm