A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Jamaican Flooding. Rain for Haiti and Maybe Miami & FL. Carib Blob a Hot Mess of Convection. Stay Tuned...
This is a big story today in the Caribbean.
Not because it is going to get a name.
But because it has caused destruction in Jamaica.
You can Google it ...
Or I will for you...
And as the rains end in Jamaica...
...the rains begin in Hispaniola
Phil Ferro on WSVN in Miami highlights the concerns.
He also highlights the hope for rain in South Florida.
Parts of South Florida need rain, most of Central Florida needs rain and North Florida is in a dangerous drought with forest fires plaguing parts of the area. Usually late May brings monsoonal rains in South Florida. The truth is the chances of rain are higher because it is disorganized. Large disorganized areas of convection meandering around in the Caribbean masked by a trof that isn't moving anywhere fast usher in the rain faster than anything else this time of year. Happens, a frontal boundary stalled out, moisture coming up from South America, caught in the flow being pulled north as yet another frontal boundary dips South. The system that caused dramatic footage of Twisters on the planes shown by storm chasers across the Internet yesterday will also dip down and take a look around the Caribbean to see what more damage it can do later in the week.
For now there is a trench of High Pressure.
A finger or foot down in the Caribbean.
As always it's an atmospheric drama.
Stay tuned.
Stay informed.
I'll update if anything changes.
In other parts of the world we are having a tropical heatwave. The heat bubble that has been situated over Florida is moving North. A taste of summer in May along with cherries and tomatoes in the market on sale everywhere.
It won't last forever but it is a sign of the times.
Dry Season VS Wet Season. Monsoons Then Hurricanes? Flow of Time... Time Keeps Flowing.
Random thoughts on random weather events and the coming Hurricane Season. In truth the "Hurricane Season" is a collection of events that really begin with the "May Monsoons" in South Florida. The set up of the Bermuda High and the movement of pools of moisture that pop up and appear out of seemingly nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. There are bigger long term factors at play here, however they do not appear on daily satellite imagery nor do they catch our attention.
But we go online suddenly and see color appearing in the Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas. Down near South America a blob of red readies itself to depart into the Eastern Pacific. People in South Florida begin whining about the lack of rain and drought and fires burn out of control in parts of Florida in need of moisture. Normally... Mother Nature hears the cries for rain and sends a drought buster with heavy, flooding rain in Mid May. Usually when the system works. Currently the High is anchored over Florida and the dry Southeast US and there is a weak, anchored Bahama Low that will in theory go out to sea. Welcome to 2017 a year that has yet to be reckoned with tropically speaking.
A lot of moisture and "energy" is caught in that Low.
Official comments from the NHC are below:
You know that old saying....
It's just part and parcel of the flow of this time of year.
Spring in Florida means they are playing baseball, but not football. The Spring Breakers have arrived, but snow birds have not left yet. Weather poets wax poetically on ocean currents, salinity and patterns in the atmosphere predicting a quieter than normal season while Mother Nature laughs and plans a drought buster somewhere that will wake everyone up.
People celebrate Passover or Easter as holidays that arrive at the seasonal mark awaken us to the spirituality of nature unfolding in not so subtle ways before our eyes. People pack their winter clothes away in parts of the country and in South Florida they go on partying enjoying the mild weather before the humidity that brings consistent rain back into the region. Snow is up where it belongs to misquote an old sappy song.
It's a process, it happens slowly over time.
And then one day there's an Invest.
An advisory issued on a weak tropical disturbance.
Rain On the Way to SE and Watching Rain in the Caribbean. Praying for Rain For Those Who Need.
A lot to say here and yet most of it is not all that tropical. The big news story in most of Hurricane Country today is the possibility of rain with a strong cold front moving East. People are praying.
Down in the Caribbean it IS worth noting that there is an area of extreme convection in an area very favorable for late season tropical madness but just pointing it out today to remember and watch. I'll put that in motion for you so that you can see the big picture.
You can see the convection going predictably NE in the Carib.
You can see the front progressing East.
The front progressing East towards the mountains.
Towards areas where there are fires burning.
Where the drought is bad.
Winter with snow is in the the Dakotas.
And some snow out west ...
Severe weather popping up along the frontal boundary.
Pushing East.
There is a small chance of development.
Small.
And lastly the 5 day shows some rain in areas praying for rain.
I feel almost guilty. I'm loving this fall in NC.
We have had very little rain.
The leaves have remained longer on the trees.
Less mold from decaying wet leaves piled everywhere.
Blue, blue skies.
Yesterday we walked around the Flea Market.
That's not a regular flea market but a HUGE one.
Every Sunday in Raleigh at the State Fair Grounds.
I think at times it's more fun than the fair.
Note not a shimmy on that lamp moving.
Colors of fall with oak trees dressed in autumn colors.
A news story yesterday in the RDU Triangle said much.
A huge sink hole in a road destroyed by Matthew opened up yesterday.
A jogger didn't notice and fell inside, had to be rescued.
Matthew remains a story on many levels here.
Crazy but true.
You may have forgotten about it but locally it's news.
Many are giving to charities giving children displaced by Matthew presents.
I put up the link for www.redcross.org as it's a good charity.
There are ones by churches, Chabad and many non-profit groups.
But staying neutral here the Red Cross is respected and a good one.
And there are people who have been affected by fires they are helping.
The beautiful weather we are enjoying in NC...
The Blue skies and the color that remains longer.
Is sadly caused by the drought.
Good for my allergy, bad for farmers.
Bad for anyone with breathing problems.
Bad for tourism.
The fires are in Western NC not in Raleigh.
We are enjoying one of the most picturesque falls I can remember.
So pray for rain.
Pray for a Rain Man to save the day.
Great movie.
Leap of Faith.
Jonas Nightingale who prays for rain.
Gotta watch the movie to see if it rains or not.
We need rain in many places.
Hope that front doesn't get severe ...
...doesn't move too fast.
Hope it rains.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
A long PS if you aren't interested...
...check back tomorrow on the tropics.
But I felt it was something I needed to say.
Have a good day!
* * *
I want to say something here. I lived in California a long time and I was used to forest fires. They would often, early on, say they were arson and search out the arsonists. As a young girl from Miami I couldn't understand how they knew it was arson so fast nor could I understand why someone would intentionally start a fire. Mother Nature does a good job herself at times when the Santa Ana winds blow in California and often fires are unintentionally started but the result is the same. As I studied journalism as well as geography I ask questions often to learn and I was told that they know almost from the beginning the way the fire spreads; where it starts and it's very nature (different fires can be unique) has a signature to it, sad but true. Sometimes a thrill seeker, sometimes someone's careless and sometimes someone with a grudge. In LA during Santa Ana winds fires can spread like crazy in ways no one expects and spread as fast as... a wild fire. Add to it the common use of a certain roofing material that was more prone to catching fire fast. Why I can't explain as in many places where there is the risk of forest fires in wooded areas near distant subdivisions built up in the hills they outlaw such roofing materials.
https://en.wikivoyage.org/wiki/El_Camino_Real
Friars traveling North on the El Camino Real studying the area of California noted in their journals that there was smoke from fires in what is now the area of LA that looked much like smog as we know it. They didn't call it smog obviously but did note the weather conditions often. The Chumash Indians who cooked by fire added to the smog as the temperature inversion was there before the first automobile was ever driven on a road in California. And campfires not put out well do create fires and again arson specialists can tell almost immediately if a fire was started by accident by carelessness or on purpose using tactics that help a fire spread faster. Sad but true.
In South Florida fires out in the Everglades often start during the dry season when a rare strong line of storms moves through and the lightning in said storms sets the fire. Early South Florida history is riddled with the damage from these fires before man really moved in and drained the glades that started much closer to Biscayne Bay than most believe. A map of Miami in the 1950s shows the Everglades being due West of 441. Note on the map below where 441 is and how much of the city is to the West of it in an area that used to be a gentle, beautiful "River of Grass" . . .
Fire is one of the first methods of terror used probably after throwing a rock or a big man knocking down a small man. Villages burned out other villages, fire was used when barbarians came riding into Europe from the East; they often used fire torches to scare the peasants. Fire is cheap, easy and terrorizes. Some of the fires in Israel were deliberately set in populated areas.
So I'm saying this as I was attacked online by a few people when I said on social media that SOME of the fires in Israel were started by arson with the goal of terrorizing people. Some were I am sure started by ignorance. Some have been started on purpose, a crime that hurts people as well as the land itself. It's an ecological disaster not just one that has political ramifications.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Carmel_forest_fire_(2010) A fire that was not set on purpose but destroyed beautiful forests. Some of the fires in Israel that are still burning were started on purpose in heavily populated areas. Obviously time will tell the details. Again each fire is different. And it's easy for copycats to well copy a tactic used once they see how fragile and vulnerable every day life is in a place like Israel during a dry spell with high winds.
But, let's look at it this way... imagine some crazy person decides for whatever pathetic reason decides he can start a fire in Central Park in an area next to huge, high rises that line the park in areas during a time when there are Gale Force winds blowing that would carry a fire further. Imagine the damage, the horrifying results. Could happen. The famous fire in Key West in 1886 was said to be set for political reasons. It destroyed a good part of Key West. Sad but true. And then they started putting tin on the roof tops. I know this as my Great Great Grandfather was in the tinware business. http://www.keywesthistoricmarkertour.org/Markers_Detail.php?ProductID=442
So I'm sorry if it upset anyone that I mentioned the fires in Israel but they are scary, some where set on purpose and I have friends who have had to evacuate and may have lost their homes. Luckily the security in Central Park is high. Remember recently they found an incendiary device that blew a person's foot off. They still haven't explained why there was an incendiary device hiding under a rock in Central Park. Things that happen in Israel have a sad way of spreading. The person who took the truck and mowed down 84 people on Bastille Day in Nice caused death and terror by using a vehicle.
So .... yeah I do worry on the fires in Israel. Though it's not uncommon to have a forest fire in Israel as it's much like parts of Southern California in ways.........it's not so common to have high rise buildings catching fire inside a city across a wide area all at the same time. Time will tell.
But when the land is dry, when the winds are whipping .....fire can be used as a dangerous weapon whether out of revenge in business (seen that happen sadly) or for terror reasons.
The silver lining is indeed the many countries Egypt, Russia, Croatia, Belarus, Italy, Greece and Turkey working together to help Israel put out the fires. That's beautiful. That's heroic. A true silver lining to a sad tragedy both on human levels and ecological levels. Many of those forests were built, made tree by tree planted by people who wanted to bring Israel to life. I found family history recently by the copies of Trees For Israel that my Great Aunt Ida had planted for her parents who had died and a brother who died in the Holocaust. Most Jewish families have such papers stacked away in their grandparent's homes.
An image from online.
http://www.jnf.org/jnf-tree-planting-center/
So sorry if I bothered a few people by mentioning the fires in Israel.
I mention fires often after living in LA I remember them well.
No one has ever complained before.
And yes as a meteorologist and historian...
I've learned much on forest fires and arson.
I've also learned how Mother Nature is involved.
More often than not arson is also involved.
Lastly.....I use one Twitter account.
On occasion like drunk at a wedding I may post a picture.
Almost always I'm only writing about the weather.
Much Love, BobbiStorm
Ps Ps Seriously hope the attack at OSU today was not terror.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
