Hello Florida...Hurricane Predictions 2017. Sure Bet It Will Be A Busy Season.

I'm going to make a prediction you can take to the bank. A forecast that is totally 100% reliable. Hurricane Season begins officially June 1st and there will be named tropical systems. Actually we already had one so that's bet I couldn't lose. Tropical Storm Arlene came and went way before the season officially started. Those rules do not work with NASCAR or at the Dog Track however we do allow named storms before the flag has been waved.



Tropical Storm Arlene began the season before the flag was waved; before TV stations showed "how to prepare" videos and before the Internet went crazy with headlines on the start of the season.  You know the kind that Accuweather put up this morning of possible tracks for this coming Hurricane Season at the top of this blog.

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com put up a map of possible tracks for this year on May 15th that is very similar to the one that Accuweather put up today although I doubt they did as much work mathematically on calculations. The general feeling on social media outlets, weather websites and in meteorological discussion is that storms could affect the SE and Eastern Gulf of Mexico more than other places. Again it's a prediction and they can happen anywhere at anytime as TS Arlene already showed us...

Split the uprights in the Accuweather chart and Jim's 2017 City Predictions and Florida is more likely to be in the cross hairs this year than most years.

Do not get distracted by mitigating factors such as El Nino forming late or SAL being a problem or SHEAR saving the day. This is not Superman or Batman and people love to have a hero and a villain it seems. It is what it is... it IS Hurricane Season. And one of these names below may come calling on your city despite shear, SAL and the ever popular El Nino.

NOAA predicts we get to Lee.

We could easily see Maria this year trust me.

CSU says Katia.

TWC says Nate.

The only sure thing is ... we have already seen Arlene!

So we start June 1st on the #2 storm Bret

So while out shopping on Memorial Day Weekend if you see something you might want to have for the Hurricane Season pretend June 1st is a birthday and buy the present for yourself. Seems Memorial Day Weekend is one of the busiest shopping weekend of the year. Be like a Scout and be prepared. Splurge and buy yourself something and hide it in the closet somewhere so no one uses up the supplies. Label it in a box TAX INFO or BILLS no one will look ;)

Be sneaky because Mother Nature is often sneaky as Tropical Storm Arlene has already shown. Let's see what other tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve this Hurricane Season.

Please read:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/05/hurricane-forecasts-2017-will-they-pan.html

Kind of worries me that these incredible high heels usually get more attention than the start of the Hurricane Season and many know the names of tracks at NASCAR or obsess on the first day of the Baseball Season than they do Hurricane Season. Arlene won the game before the first pitch was tossed. If you have a Millenial in your family send them a snap with pictures of Hurricane Supplies... they like pictures of food ;) Do whatever you got to do because Hurricane Season is happening whether you are ready or not....

And have an incredible Memorial Day Weekend!!

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Dry Season VS Wet Season. Monsoons Then Hurricanes? Flow of Time... Time Keeps Flowing.

Random thoughts on random weather events and the coming Hurricane Season. In truth the "Hurricane Season" is a collection of events that really begin with the "May Monsoons" in South Florida. The set up of the Bermuda High and the  movement of pools of moisture that pop up and appear out of seemingly nowhere in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. There are bigger long term factors at play here, however they do not appear on daily satellite imagery nor do they catch our attention.

But we go online suddenly and see color appearing in the Gulf of Mexico and near the Bahamas. Down near South America a blob of red readies itself to depart into the Eastern Pacific. People in South Florida begin whining about the lack of rain and drought and fires burn out of control in parts of Florida in need of moisture. Normally... Mother Nature hears the cries for rain and sends a drought buster with heavy, flooding rain in Mid May. Usually when the system works. Currently the High is anchored over Florida and the dry Southeast US and there is a weak, anchored Bahama Low that will in theory go out to sea. Welcome to 2017 a year that has yet to be reckoned with tropically speaking.

A lot of moisture and "energy" is caught in that Low.

Official comments from the NHC are below:

You know that old saying....

It's just part and parcel of the flow of this time of year.

A rearrangement of weather in the atmosphere.

We are not there yet on our journey.

There is still a zonal sort of flow.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zonal_and_meridional

Basically this is Spring in the N Hemisphere.

Spring in Florida means they are playing baseball, but not football. The Spring Breakers have arrived, but snow birds have not left yet. Weather poets wax poetically on ocean currents, salinity and patterns in the atmosphere predicting a quieter than normal season while Mother Nature laughs and plans a drought buster somewhere that will wake everyone up.

People celebrate Passover or Easter as holidays that arrive at the seasonal mark awaken us to the spirituality of nature unfolding in not so subtle ways before our eyes. People pack their winter clothes away in parts of the country and in South Florida they go on partying enjoying the mild weather before the humidity that brings consistent rain back into the region. Snow is up where it belongs to misquote an old sappy song.

It's a process, it happens slowly over time.

And then one day there's an Invest.

An advisory issued on a weak tropical disturbance.

Rain falls somewhere and people smile.

Air gets moved from the Equator to the Poles.

Until then we live in Zonal land...

...watching loops.

Sometimes floaters appear.

We are not there yet.

Just enjoy the show ....

El Nino or No Nino storms form...

Somewhere, somehow.

Seasons change.

Weather flows.

It's just a matter of time.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on @bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Song stuck in my mind.

I see a couple, passionately kissing in the rain.

Good video.. I see a way better one in my head.

Thank you...