Late March, April This Week! Trends to Watch Re: 2026 Hurricane Season. "Rainy Season" aka "Monsoon Season in FL" and Fronts.

 

I know it's been about 20 hot minutes, but we did a fast road trip down to Miami to greet a new member of the family. Touch base. Wander around with daughter in "Midtown" which is near Wynwood and just across the street from the Design District. Miami has become like Manhattan, every few blocks is a different area with it's own unique name. That said, it's 34 degrees in Raleigh this morning, sipping coffee trying to wake up with the fake little fireplace in my bedroom! Fell in love with her Golden Doodle which is way nicer than my mother's "chocolate poodle" that was known as the Devil Dog by some...

Roughly late May/June.

June 1st Hurricane Season...

See the pattern here???

There are 3 posts on X I want to highlight as they have ramifications down the tropical road in the not so distant future. First let's start with "the Rainy Season" which is another word for "Miami Monsoons" but we say "rainy season" so we don't scare the tourists or potential new home buyers a way. But to be fair, the change in the seasons has more to do with the addition of moisture into the South Florida enviroment. Rainy Season comes before Hurricane Season for a reason. And, often we can tell much about where we are going this particular hurricane season from the "Rainy Season" so pay attention. Yes, it normally starts in late May, though it can start earlier or later. There's a drought going on so this has short term implications. There are things to watch for and I'm hoping to be "home in Miami" in May to see family and enjoy the May Monsoons. As always I show this picture from Wikipedia that is hidden in the "Climate" Section.

Photo from Marc Averette...

....yes looks exactly like this.

Or as the kids say:

"End of the World looking storms!"

Anyway what to watch for ......

Fronts? Are they still on the move?
High Pressure? Has it anchored itself in too close to S FL or is it missing in action?
Patterns of where the rain falls and how much falls?

Cold fronts still on the move can forewarn of an early Hurricane Season with generally weak tropical storms forming at the tail base of a stalled out frontal boundary. How far down the fronts are moving, can show where these tropical threats can form and traverse the state. Are we talking the Big Bend or are we talking down by Tampa and SW Florida?

High Pressure? If it's anchored in place and it's a "Dry May" there's a theory the high will steer storms towards South Florida. That's an old theory from Jim Lushine via NWS Miami and it's worth noting it's really in relative only for big hurricanes than come from the ESE moving WNW towards the edge of the High Pressure Zone. It does not cover weak but annoying tropical storms that form in the Gulf and criss cross the state.

Patterns are everything in short term weather forecasting and when I say short term, in this case, I mean the first half of the Hurricane Season.  You can see Dabuh is already watching the patterns.

He's not expecting a named storm...

..but he's in Pre Season training :)

A small reminder 

Down Under it's Hurricane Season.

Spring here is Fall there.

That will change eventually.

Old song.

Turn, turn, turn.

Had a friend who loved this song.

Tho here in NC the weather turns every day.

89 degrees

34 degrees

90 degrees

39 degrees

Anyway going shopping.

Big holiday this week.

Generally I am in "quiet mode" this time of year. After the holidays (Passover for me) I come out of hiatus and jump on trends, discussion and things you may want to do before Hurricane Season. Also, most of the forecasts will be out by then and we can compare and contrast thoughts on how busy this hurricane season will be.

As for the EL NINO question  ????   

How fast and how strong it is or isn't....

...will say much about the Hurricane Season.

Again if fronts linger as well....

...as that favors development in the Gulf.
or off the S FL coast.

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X