Ernesto

The NHC did a great job .. in my opinon on track which is what we expect out of them. No one expects them to be the new Miss Cleo on the block and know for sure everything about hurricanes as hurricanes are part of a nonstop, non static process of the atmosphere which is very fluid and full of never ending, non-stop nuances that are constantly rearranging. Can you predict for sure where a the colors in a lava lamp will go with perfection? No..

Those of us who love hurricanes and study them enjoy the challenge and are constantly amazed at the many possible scenarios that could happen with so many multiple possibilities. If we were simplistic and boring people we would play Chess or Monopoly or be accountants or some other routine job with lots of controls and routine.

Hurricanes are wild and very unpredictable.

The fact that the NHC could take a cluster of clouds and rainfall far away in the distant Atlantic and predict where it would go down the road is awesome.. to come even within 100 miles is amazing, 50 more so.. it is a fine art that has been developed over time.

Let me explain this..

Once along time ago people woke up, got dressed, ate their porridge and looked outside to see what the weather was and went off to work.. While out at work the surf began to get funny, clouds began to move in and somewhere someone said, "oh looks like rain!" and they kept working thinking it was only a rainstorm.

On Miami Beach in 1926 when some people left their home at nightfall to go to temple for Rosh Hashonnah Services they saw the rain falling and the streets flooding and thought, "oh wow, this is a lot of rain" and debated on going back to their little apartments instead of getting soaked or in deeper water. They did not know they were walking through the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and it wasn't a "heavy rainstorm" but the Great 1926 Hurricane that ate Miami and spit it out like a sea monster on it's way across the Ocean. The rain stopped, people's houses fell down, they crawled out of bathtubs and model T Fords and tried to drive to Miami to see if their relatives or friends were okay and when the back side of the storm came racing in they were washed in their Model T Fords out to sea.. never to be heard from again, a body along with the many bodies found and buried in that terrifying Category 4 Storm.

We have come so far in hurricane prediction. We still have a ways to go with predicting hurricane intensity. But, we know when they are coming, we know how to prepare, we know what an eye is, we know down to the minute when a strong band is about to hit and we should be very grateful, not kvetchy whiny children bitching because "oh they were off by 1o to 15mph and it never became 55mph before it hit"

You guys want Miss Cleo? Ask around, am sure she is here somewhere making money doing something but she is not trying to get a meterology degree I promise you and she is not working on her Masters or Doctorate and dealing with shortsighted funding from a government still reeling from the Post Katrina Stress Syndrome. She is not begging for more flights, for money for flights, money for employees to hire and not begging the Castro brothers to fly over "their island" so that they could give a better forecast.

In 1926 there were 2 tropical events BEFORE the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. One small hurricane that was a "tree trimmer" and an Ernesto sort of tropical storm that came 3 days earlier, THREE and was a "bust" and when there was even the slightest, smallest article about another one coming possibily, moving this way from the West Indies people laughed like they knew all about hurricanes....

They didn't.

We do today because of the great work that the National Hurricane Center does.. and we should be grateful, not pissy because "it never became a hurricane"

Well, sorry I didn't win the lotto either guys this week. I bought food and batteries and didn't get a storm. Boo hoo...

Grow up and stop complaining and know how serious a business this is and with how many variables there are involved.

Personally, I thought the upper level low to it's north would cause some shear. But, even I thought it might be a bit stronger than it was. Oh well.. I was right on it crossing Key Largo and nicking the SE coast of Florida before going back out to sea but I thought it would have intensified a bit more too.

There are more waves out there, more chances for them to get intensity right.

Maybe if the government would give more money to the NHC to do it's job and give them another five or ten years they will tell you exactly how strong some storm will be when it hits my home in Key West five years from now ... because hopefully that is where I will be. Getting Cuban Coffee somewhere in the morning and walking over to the Grotto to light a candle and boarding up my house on the advice of the National Hurricane Center that a Category 1 storm with winds no stronger than 83 mph will cross Truman and Simonton at exactly 7:39pm on September 19, 2011.

But, for now........ I think they are doing a bang up job and everyone should be happy this one was a dud and not a problem because there are other storms on the horizon and they might just possibly be that big storm that Miami wants to have to feel justified for the NHC to issue a Hurricane Watch...

Going to work... glad to have a job and glad my blue tarp is still on my roof and glad my electric is back on and .. can't wait to be living in Key West some day.

Love ya, Bobbi