Miami, Monday Evening.. From The Cone Zone

Miami at Sundown... Sundown in the Cone Zone.. 85 degrees at 8pm!

Traffic has become something worse to deal with than the storm itself. I have spoken to people who would rather stay home without extra water or batteries than venture outside looking for a few more double AAs.. anything other than going out into the Traffic. Maybe when the sun goes down, maybe later... much later they will go over to Walmart or get gas but not now...

At Biscayne Blvd and 163rd Street it took about 20 minutes to get across two lights. There were people lined up at gas stations blocking traffic lanes. I heard it took 30 minutes to cross Miami Gardens and Biscayne but not sure .. maybe it just seemed like 30 minutes. Sunny Isles Blvd going east bound at rush hour looked like a parking lot.

It was 91 degrees at 6pm. Hottest that I can remember, hot and dry and people around me looked like they might pass out. The air felt funny, two women on the bus getting ready to get off were holding their necks and their eyes looked funny.

On one hand people have this "I'm prepared, I'll be okay, I'll deal with it after the storm" attitude and on the other hand every kook is out there fighting for something their wife, husband, parent or friend INSISTED they go BACK to the store for... Like the laid back vs the crazed shoppers.

Everyone is pretty much waiting.

I did see a few people putting up shutters. Why? Not sure, maybe they have to work tomorrow and have to do it tonight. Norcross said that this storm has a built in good timing quality as you can go to sleep, set your alarm for 6am and watch the news and get an idea for how bad, strong Ernesto looks or doesn't and make that decision on the shutters or going to stay with a friend. So, so true.

And, in my opinion... I think that Ernesto IS reforming and looking quite good. Earlier this afternoon it was two weak masses or color on the IR... now both those areas have expanded and merged and there is obvious DARK colors growing on the north coast where the center of the storm is at this minute. Also, if you look at the bottom there is what will be a nice long tail and I believe it's gonna have a nice band on top.. on the north.. Somehow that small upper level low is helping it not hurting it and helping twist up the environment a bit...

Something is going on with Ernesto... he is doing his thing and I think that the NHC was right yesterday but they didn't stick to their guns because their new fancy models show now it won't rev up. I think it will be a Cat 1 at landfall easily..even leave in possibility that it looks better or is just barely Cat 1.. 70 mph.. but.. those who want to "stick a fork in it" or make fun of it.. well... easy to do when you didn't go through a very strong borderline Category 1/Tropical Storm last year. For those who went through Katrina in the Miami area.. no one is laughing this off. And, yet...I don't see panic.

I have been told there is more panic in suburbia.. where you have 3 or 4 gas stations at your entrance to the expressway and there are a million people trying to get gas.. one or two Publix stores and one Walmart..everyone is wedged in like sardines. On Miami Beach people were going in and out of small stores.. small Dollar Stores on Washington Avenue were doing a brisk business in Cuban Coffee and 7 day religious candles and people were talking, shmoozing, discussing calmly. I'm beginning to think Suburbia turns people into labratory rats not the big city.

Tourist making plans to go home. People off work tomorrow. Kids home from school for two days. Alternative, Plan B plans being made.. if it's bad, if it's noy a bad storm.. if there is damage, if there isn't damage.

As I have said before.. our football team is called the University of Miami Hurricanes for a reason. This is hurricane country and we don't panic and go "Oh MY GOSH" as much as .. "okay, batteries, drinks, clean up, snacks, get money out of the bank, first aid, etc.."

And, the kids.......oh the kids are having fun. This is prime time fun time for Miami kids... we don't have snow, we don't have fall... we have hurricanes! And, usually they are milder than we think they will be but there is always that outside chance that this one will rev up, turn strong, become a major cane from some, small ragged looking remnant of a storm named Ernesto.

As for me... sitting back, relaxing tonight, watching the show on TV.. talking to friends, maybe take a walk over to the Walgreens a few blocks away and look around.. and in the morning.. at some point. Taking Zalmy to the beach.. maybe Rivky.. witnesses history and seeing if I can discern something at the beach that I can't see on TV.

One thing I will tell you.

This morning there was no air.. no wind, nothing.
Tonight, outside.. there is a constant breeze, nonstop.. trust me there is something coming.. what I can't say for sure but don't write it off. Nope. He's a player.

Right now.. Ernesto is sitting there in the Old Bahama Passage.. just offshore, near the coast... and over the next six or nine hours we will see what he really plans on doing.

Lastly... Max Mayfield said on local tv that some new test models show that Ernesto will not become strong over the Straits despite warm waters below and he doesn't really see why he won't reintensify nicely. So.. it's the new fancy models against old time wisdom and I have to tell you I think I trust Old Max on this one.


Mixed message according to Bryan Norcross.. what looked like two centers... what looks like a band on botton that are trying to develop. Another player is the upper level low to it's immediate ne... and that is enhancing tstorms and it is hurting him temporarily ... but that uper level low is going away.. and then what??? Then what? That is the question Bryan is asking tonight. He is so good, really good, so good. It cannot be overused how good he is.. Watching him now talking calmly about the storm.. that isn't all so far away really.

So.. bottom line.. I see him riding the Old Bahama Passage a bit up and then turning a bit more sharply than the path shows as the front begins to move faster this way and he might even come in from the south.

Norcross did say that depending on if he does intensify or not there could be some significant flooding in Biscayne Bay up to the Port of Miami. Water would funnel up into Biscayne Bay.. to some degree.

Check in later to see what degree.. as for me.. I see him trying to make nice bands.. on sw edge, on the south.. on the north.. he is growing in size and I think he is going to be a beautiful storm to look at when all is said and done and he gets out over the Gulf Stream... very close in. Don't be surprised if he looks more like a hurricane tomorrow.

Oh.. got chicken in the oven with mango-key lime sauce I bought in the Keys a month or so ago and sweet potatoes and going to have dinner, relax, watch the nonstop Ernesto show on TV and see what he looks like in the morning.

Waiting on the 11pm.. waiting on the 5pm... living and dying in 6 hour time..

Going to put on some Jimmy Buffett later ;)

And...thanks for all your nice comments from people reading my blog... yes, so true, only time will tell..