RANDOM MUSINGS OF BOBBI'S TROPICAL MIND...

Random Musings Of A Tropical Mind - Bobbi In Miami

While I sit here waiting to see if Ernesto reforms...if he gets strong... if we have watches posted at 5am...

While I listen to Matt Drudge muse on the radio..

While I talk to friends and call it a night..

Main point of 11pm Discussion:
"THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT."

Second main point... remember that Clark on www.flhurricane.com wrote that incredible post on his blog.. check it out tomorrow and see what else he has to say...

Thirdly...I'm musing a bit... tropically so and then I am going to bed as soon as I am done here.

I found a way to solve the problem of the house phone ringing. I am on the laptop on the house phone line :) Peace and quiet... no more phone calls except on the cellphone or the sidekick.

Everyone wants to know "Do I have to worry?" "Is Ernesto going to hit?"

This is an odd question as if you have to ask it.. you obviously are already worrying. And..we are in the Cone...if there is an Ernesto tomorrow it will probably hit somewhere between Miami and Key West and Tampa and well...somewhere near here.

Should you worry? Should I worry?
Oh well... depends. It is all a matter of perspective.

As Wayne Dwyer said last night on some program.. if someone finds a a few hairs in their soup ...someone else can say its only a few hairs but if they are in your soup... its way too much hair. Well, he said something like that. A lot was going on at the time but that caught my attention.

So...if you have a weak little storm down in the Caribbean headed in the general direction of NW and the cone says it will probably hit Cuba and the Keys..why would Miami worry? Because its south of Miami headed this way and so far has always stayed on the right side of the track. It might be a minimal storm.. but its possibly our minimal storm. A minimal storm can get big fast.

I mean if you want to buy the story of the 1935 Labor Day Cane going from a tropical storm to a Major Cat 5 in about one day... why would anyone laugh at a minimal tropical storm about to cross hot, hot, hot Victoria Secret water? Hello? And, yes forever and always Chris I will be skeptical of the 1935 Labor Day Cane and you know why but am not going to get political here. No..the Govt was not responsible for killing the Vets on the Keys..those Vets that marched on Washington and were sent down to the Keys in the middle of summer when sandflies try to fly north for cooler air... to sit in a tropical Siberia in the middle of nowhere and didn't bother to make sure that the rescue train got there in time to stop them from washing away into the Atlantic Ocean by a Category Five "Act of God" storm ... Well... Ernest Hemingway believed that basically the US Government was responsible in some way for their deaths. He was on one of the first trips up the Keys to see what happened. There Ernest was... on the Pilar, Mr. Reporter on a story and he found dead body upon dead body all the way along the Highway... dead bodies in trees hanging bloated and ugly with flies flying around their naked bodies, he found remnants of camps set up for the Veterans that Washington forgot left to die and have their remains scattered about left in the sand. The very same Vets that marched on Washington and upset the President who decided if they wanted work so bad..he would darn well find them work. And...so even though they were supposed to have a good back up plan in case of tropical weather.. oopsie they didn't have such a good plan. Those who were on vacation in Miami survived and most who stayed behind on a coral rock set of Keys .. islands barely above sea level died.. or were washed away in the Train that left Miami late...too late to save them. Something about a bridge being stuck up and the train being a half an hour too late...

Whoosh came the wave that knocked the choo choo train into the Ocean.

But years before Ralph Munroe, a writer and ecologist at the turn of the Century warned against laying the tracks for the Overseas Railroad in the manner he did... as he said it would cause a suction like effect and create a tidal wave like effect if a storm approached from the direction the 35 Storm approached...not a storm surge but more a tidal wave and according to the survivor's own words a wave came larger than any other and suddenly swept the train off of the tracks... one big wave.

Maybe it was storm surge..
Maybe it was poor planning...

Maybe they meant to save the vets..
Maybe they cared...

Maybe the 35 Storm really did intensify that fast.. maybe it didn't.

There is very little real data and can you really tell the difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5?

The disaster in New Orleans after Katrina was a breakdown of the Levee system... maybe if it had happened way back before every Tom, Dick and Harry was tracking online it would have been called a landfall of a Category Five storm and who could argue the point?

Now everyone can argue... then???

Well... you know that passage by heart, you who knows the history so well of how a wall of water rolled over the Vets..

Ernest Hemingway didn't buy it. He believed that Washington was responsible for their deaths even if in directly.

Washington put out a big, massive book I have looked through on the hearings and judged it a Category Five and even though problems occured in the rescue ..there really wasn't much they could do in an Act of God and... as always.. Congress held hearings..

Fast forward to 2006 and Ernesto.. a name very beloved in the tropics and in Cuba... is down there hovering around the tip of Haiti.. barely a storm, but there.... over very warm water...

LOL.... Drudge playing music... once I build a railroad, now its done..brother can you spare a dime. God I love that creep...

oh help me...

So... guys, giggling.............. where was I?

No longer can Washington or Miami do anything without someone, somewhere looking over their shoulder ...

Accountability is everywhere and Accuweather is still trying like a shark to get into the act... and The Weather Channel is there watching the tropics... the Hurricane Authority...

But can anyone tell me... can anyone spare a dime or a forecast...

Can anyone tell us where Ernesto is really going?

I don't think he's a goner. I don't think he is going to spend much time on Cuba. I don't know for sure but I don't think so.

But, telling you one thing here my friend.. my friends...

This is the anniversary year of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane and any year ending in a 6 makes me nervous. Laugh..but Yaffah would know what I mean... Somewhere the parrallels are big for Miami and I worry that Miami may feel a real storm... not just a garden variety 1 or 2..

As for the Keys... God I love the Keys and I love Key West and I can't say for sure if this is a Miami storm or a Key West storm.

I know one thing..

Bob Weaver who was the Weatherman Miami grew up listening to on the Old Wometco Channel.. Channel 4.. Wometco and Key West always a connection... Bob Weaver...would tell you all this... wait and see what happens after Ernesto comes off of Cuba and don't think this storm can't rev up and intensify over very warm waters of the Gulf Stream but relax a bit..there is plenty of time to worry still tomorrow. Get some rest and see where Ernesto is tomorrow and pay close attention to it.

Bob Weaver was the best in his day in Miami. He died this year...

A Miami original.

Morry tried to convince me once he told bawdy jokes at the old Lennys Hideaway by the Airport .. jazz bar the weathermen all hung out at (and so did we) but... well...good for Ole Bob cause he had that edge, that mishevous edge and yet... he had the sentimental edge and he had a great smile and we miss him in Miami.

So....................if Shuky reads this in Israel, YES I KNOW... Miami will be in the NE quadrant .. maybe.

First lets go to bed...and wake up tomorrow and see what condition my condition is in..

As for Ernesto... I respect him ... and if he wants to come in as a more gentle storm.. good.

Because the GFS model has some SUPERSTORM out there on the 14th day frame that is going to EAT Florida WHOLE and SWALLOW it on it's way north and the day 16th frame has another Ernesto sort of system coming up from the Caribbean following the Supercane.

Don't worry.. its not something to rely on.. it's Day 15 and Day 16..and we don't ever go by a forecast more than FIVE DAYS OUT.

SNONUT... I love you! Forever and always... wishing you Cape Verde Canes and Snow Days...always! You are the best! You are Mr. Wonderful! Really!!!!! 105% ;)

:)

Bobbi...over and out and for Mr. Drudge.. read the windmills of my mind. Come on Matt...play Windmills of Your Mind.. rhymes with Dime, pretty please.

Ernesto... thank you for the beautiful roses... or whoever sent them ;)
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html