Introducing Tropical Storm Ernesto!

Welcome to the World of Tropical Weather...and Meet Ernesto, the 5th Named Storm of the 2006 Hurricane Season!

Ernesto was born today in the Tropics and after a long discussion of message boards of was he a wave, was he a storm.. the NHC made the final call and called him Tropical Storm Ernesto. Recon went in, found the winds were high enough and they went with Recon as they always do..

There is a general wnw movement expected though if you constult message boards you will see everywhere from Brownsville to NYC as a destination. It is called "wishcasting" though I would say Houston has higher odds than Puerto Vallerto or Richmond, Virgina though if I could send it to Prince William Virginia or wherever I might consider it but.. nope... it's on a wnw path that may or may not take it across the island of Jamaica.

My personal feeling is that watching the WV loop there is a lot of uncertainty in the path of Ernesto.

First off all there has been record breaking bad weather across North America and I find it hard to believe that since the high has not yet built in strong that .. that weather won't pull, tug Ernesto just a bit more north of wnw.. lows like to go to lows and until that high builds west and sets up a real block (and it hasn't in my opinion) it will have some influence on it.

Second.. shear alone may try and force it a bit more north than west to wnw like many want to see it go.

Models aren't all that together on this storm across the board, both in intensity and in timing.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com does a good job with models and an easy to access way of linking people to stats.. though visually enticing it is not as comprehensive as www.hurricanecity.com (my personal favorite) or www.flhurricane.com which is a bit all over the place on their message board but much can be learned there. www.tropicalatlantic.com is a site from our board at hurrcity with nice info.

For the best online discussion I really think Jim is better than Joe Bastardi, and I am being honest about that not just saying so because he is Jim but he doesn't go off on tangents as much or is ego folksy stuff that Joe does and you have to pay through the nose for Joe and Jim stays on topic, shows great images and draws great paths across the Caribbean. Check it out.. it's right above the area which tells you the advisory and in the top center of his site. www.hurricanecity.com. Listen and watch a bit and you get a real good view of what is going on with Ernesto.

So... I'm going to sit back and let the models shoot it out and see where he is after Shabbos. I'll be back on then and we will see what he has done.

I think he will pull a bit north of wnw personally, somewhere between wnw and nw and then as the ridge builds in he will shift back to a more true wnw path.. up towards Cuba.. Isle of Pines.. from there.. it's anyone's game.

There is a lot of weather being funneled down on the water vapor from the weather up north and it can get some real interesting eddies and upper level lows forming and worried one might form NW of Ernesto.. but not sure on that. I watch the water vapor loop. If you get a chance, watch Cantore do the WV loop on The Weather Channel. No one is better than Cantore with a Water Vapor Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
pretty huh?

As for the discussion below it was taken from the 5pm.. to show you how uncertain these things are..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/252042.shtml


First it says this:
AND THEN INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACKFORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVELRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

VS
then it says that:
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.

with the big closer of..
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Beven did the 5pm. I love Beven. He is one of the best over there.

And, speaking of the best over there.. Max Mayfield stunned everyone earlier today in a hurricane briefing letting those closest to him at work in on his retirement plans. News shot across the meteorological world faster than a speeding bullet. Wow. I am stunned, surprised... he has always called his job "his calling" and so .. well.. I guess like Forrest Gump said (as he said) he wants to go home.

I know that feeling. I felt like that all day.. I just wanted to go home. But, not sure where home is and I don't live where I think "home" is anymore so ... I know how he feels.

Shabbos dinner:
Whole Chicken Stuffed with Stuffing (of course)
Roasted Potatoes, Carrots and Onions.
Babaganush
Vegetarian Liver
Humus
Salad
Wine, Red wine from Spain.. very good wine.
Challah
Gefilte Fish
Freshly baked cake

Good Shabbos..
I'll be back Saturday night.. God Bless Harvey for a wonderful adjustment today so that I could function and God Bless Uri for leaving me the Strawberry Vodka in the freezer (nice son-in-law) and God bless friends here, there and everywhere.

And......personally.. I love Ernesto, think he will rock the Caribbean more than anyone expected but we will see..

Good Shabbos, Have a great weekend, TGIF!

Bobbi