Miami, Monday Morning Before Ernesto Arrives

This really should be called.. Living and Dying in 6 hour time.. but I'll explain that later :) And, excuse the spelling errors as I am a little nervous and very rushed.

Hello from Miami.. Home of the Middle of the Cone..or soon to be middle of the Cone..

I'm trying to think clearly, logically and tell myself this storm is still a long ways away and things can change fast in the tropics. 2 days ago it was headed to Texas. Maybe we can send Ernesto Travel Posters of Bermuda?
Don't think so.. was a done deal that this storm was going to head to Cuba and then laugh in my face in Miami. Telling you I could have bet the farm on this one.. or the red, red roses blowing in the breeze from my good friend and handsome guy Ernesto. The real Ernesto has always been entertaining and pushed me to be cuter, funnier and made my day brighter. This one is getting the adrenaline rush going and I have black coffee this morning since I was up til 3 and woke up from my slumber at 6. That's 3 hours sleep.

Going to my favorite Starbucks in 10 minutes and getting a RedEye. Welcome to my world...

So, you wondering how I am doing here in Miami?

I am living and dying in 6 hour time (sung to Jimmy Buffett's 3/4 time song please) as we wait with baited breath to see if the National Hurricane Center can manage to get that cone DIRECTLY over Miami ... come on guys.. I know you can do it...

So.. every time someone calls me or texts me or emails me or flies a banner plane over my house I tell them.. "I'll let you know more after the 11am, the 5pm, the 11pm, the 5 am... telling y'all we are living and dying in 6 hour time. The Discussion from the NHC.. the only real discussion that counts. And..then we will spend the rest of tonight and possibly tomorrow waiting to hear what Bryan has to say. And, Bryan did not look like a happy camper yesterday. How could he? The NHC kept issuing forecast points for Ernesto to hit and Ernesto kept missing them. May he KEEP missing them to the RIGHT.. far right Ernesto baby.. please... just miss us by a little.. a miss is as good as a mile they say or a smile.. so come on Ernesto... miss us just a little.

Right now.. I'm a bit worried he doesn't stall somewhere down there with the high above him and upper level lows battling it out but... the NHC calls for him to move his pretty little body NW at NEAR 12 mph (which I don't personally see but who knows) so.. don't listen to me but remember I said he might stall or slow down. Probably will take off like a bat out of hell now that I said it.

Why do I say Miami is in deep water trouble and should better listen up and stop thinking "it can't happen again, it can't" is shown below with dueling water vapor loops.. Run them, loop them and see if you can find a way out of tropical trouble for Miami. Please.. let me know if you see anything to wish upon besides stars in the clear night sky a night ahead in the calm before the storm...

First before you read this.. or maybe later as I am not the bossy kind.. please check out the links for the loops.

See this water vapor loop?
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html
Note that for the few moments it was over water it went DARK RED immediately before moving towards the tip of Eastern Cuba.

That is not a good sign.

Storm history would say that when this storm hits the warm waters north of Cuba it will do that again except that the only land in it's way will be a day or two away in South Florida.

Note the Upper Level Low to it's north is going towards Florida and it will follow it as well as let the Ull ventilate it better and enhance it .. making it stronger. Many have said that feature would kill it but no.. what doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.. to paraphrase Sting.

Air circulates around and it is going to be shoved straight at Florida.. just like the SHORT term forecast by the NHC says. I would love to believe otherwise. Then again... I really want to believe in Happy Endings and sappy love songs so someone feel free to rewrite this ending to Ernesto's so called life so far.. please..

Next Water Vapor Loop:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html

Just so many to choose from... note how Ernesto though not much stronger wind speed wise is already expanding in size as most of it is over water.. not good.

Yet another water vapor loop... the old Whales ummm well .. Shuky and Levi's favorite one (my sons) and note that this also doesn't look good. I don't see any way out here and I really "feel" for the NHC who insisted he was going to go WNW .. there is still time I may add though I don't see why he would.

Thats 3 not goods.. someone keeping track here?

I'm sitting in Kafka's Internet Cafe and Bookstore on Miami Beach..watching people in shorts walking by the window walking their little pooches for a morning walk... and wondering where they are going walk them on wednesday? The painted van from Lucky Tattos is across the street and that lady painted on the side of the truck looks positively evil. Can we please have her put a spell on Ernesto?? Tourists are peering out from the rooftop of the hotel nearby with a cup of coffee in hand and happy to be in paradise one last day before heading off to Germany or Italy or whatever European Country they are here from spending their wisely earned Euros.. Gosh Miami Beach looks beautiful today. Bright, beautiful and deceptively pretty. A lady walks by calmly talking on her cell phone. No panic here. Not yet... maybe tomorrow. Maybe tonight. One last night of partying maybe on Hispanola Way before boarding up the shops of Lincoln Road I imagine.

I do notice Kafka's has filled up and no one is talking, it's extremely quiet and almost everyone is going back and forth from mail to weather news.


I wonder... does anyone realize here what trouble we might be in store for?

Do I? Am I really prepared for this thing to ramp up into a big, bad storm?
No :) Nope.. not really but I will go into full panic mode and know what to do and do it on automatic should that happen.
Trust me... My brother's house has shutters and a new roof (which I hope holds) and I will go there with the kiddies and the kitty if I have to.. if it's a major and not a minor.

I want to tell myself that he is small, he is weak..a minor little nothing Tropical Storm. Lords knows they flew around yesterday in 8 figure 8s looking for a tropical storm force wind. Who is up in that plane I wonder? Been a bit quiet round here the last 24 hours.

And, then I remember the discussion on ZERO vertical shear as Ernesto moves towards the Southeast Florida area for a landfall later this week.. sooner this week and I think.. "no shear?" oh that can't be right. Can it?

Then I look at skeetobite.. someone should slap him silly for scaring us with those graphics..
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=05

Oh.... no help there.

From Discussion at 5am..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/280901.shtml

"THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY."

That Discussion is the killer here as it's only a *SHOULD*... but for now Ernesto has missed his forecasted point and he is a bit right of where he should have been and that means.. unless they can hold off.. the NHC may pull, tug the cone a bit more to the right..

Waiting on the ELEVEN AM Ernesto Advisory and Discussion...

As I said.. I am living and dying in 6 hour time..

Thank the gang at HurrCity for keeping me laughing while waiting for the 2am... see you later alligators..

Bobbi.. going to get a Redeye and go to work and I'll let you know the moment I see someone, somewhere actually boaring up..
for now.. blue skies, beautiful weather in Miami this morning...