A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, March 29, 2019
Storm Forming Off the East Coast? Where? When? What Kind of Storm? Track? So Many Questions.
Been waiting today to see if this thing goes together in any way that is easy to explain. And when I say this thing I really mean two things. It's that time of year, neither here nor there, Cold fronts up there but not really down there which means they go flat as they get close to the Florida Georgia Border though a few do get through. Those that do get through get stuck along the coast and as they wobble out to sea. Other late season cold fronts wind up into strong storms somewhere around the Carolinas and Georgia providing possibilities for "WEATHER" depending on where exactly they set up. Even in South Florida it's not totally rare to see one last "cool front" blow through in the first week of April making the white caps on Biscayne Beautiful and setting the sailboats on that angle you usually only see in the movies. So this is the set up we are in currently as we move towards a Spring set up complete with violent storms out on the Prairies and flooding along the Mississippi River and it's tributaries. Then we move into the Hurricane Season. So let's take a look at what may or may not develop, hug the coast or do some interesting dance up the coast in early April and just what is out there in the Atlantic enough to get a "heads up" even if it's not getting a name ....
Brad is in North Carolina.
Dabuh is in N FL watching the adjacent coastline.
Big storm systems provide big waves and high surf!
Keep watching.
And read my thoughts please on the 2019 Hurricane Season below.
For what it is worth............those further North want snow, those further to the South want real weather and a fun day at the beach watching waves. Probably no one will get what they want but they will get what Mother Nature throws at them. I may update later today if the picture becomes clearer but for now be aware it's that time of year.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram for faster updates.
Ps Have a happy weekend... happy is good!
You can't always be happy but I can wish you happiness all the samed...
Yes as a child I saw hail like that in the picture above.
The hail covered the whole school yard and turned it white!
It was as close as I got for many years to real snow.
More dangerous than snow as it falls hard not softly.
What's your favorite weather to follow?
WATERSPOUT! Every time I see a water spout I am in awe— big reason I got into meteorology (saw them on Lake Michigan as a kid)— yesterday
Brooke Suzanne and her daughter on spring break on Anna Maria Island, Florida got to see one. It stayed over the ocean thankfully. pic.twitter.com/q7izg6prlD
I love when meteorologists share why they love weather.
How it began and with what kind of weather.
My family owned property on Anna Maria Island back in the 1920s when they were promoting it and Holmes Beach during the Real Estate Boom of the Roaring 20s. Love of weather is in the genes it seems as I heard my Great Great Grandfather loved to watch the thunderstorms form out on Tampa Bay from his front porch. Beautiful spit of land it is but if another Tampa Bay Hurricane like the 1921 hurricane comes through it would do tremendous damage on the scale of Hurricane Michael to that beautiful sliver of beach in what looks like a tropical paradise.
Okay so I'm a hurricane person.
Love snow, thunderstorms and hail.
But hurricane is where it's at for me.
Born and bred in Miami.
My father went to University of Miami...
...home of the Hurricanes.
Nuff said.
So let's talk Hurricane Season 2019.
This is a very good graphic below of the current state of the oceans on Planet Earth. Remembering that things change and evolve over time so what is cool now will warm up in August and September to some degree as we saw last year after the media hooplah over a good observation made on how the MDR was cool this time of year and that could help us have an easier hurricane season months later. The problem in America (where most of us live) is it's not about where they form but where they make landfall. When the Gulf of Mexico or the water close in along the East Coast is bubbly a weak storm can intensify rapidly as it is moves towards landfall. The 1935 Great Labor Day Hurricane, Michael, Katrina and Andrew are prime examples of storms that intensified in our part of the world not out in the MDR where many that do intensify fast and then turn into Fish Storms swimming up into the MDR bothering no one... heard from never more.
Oceans are regarded as the memory of the Earth's climate system. That's why we keep a close eye on them 🌊
Here's an update:
1️⃣ El Niño
2️⃣ Atlantic warm pool
3️⃣ Ningaloo Niña
4️⃣ Pacific warm pool
5️⃣ New Zealand marine heatwave
6️⃣ Cooler deep tropical Atlantic
7️⃣ Indian warm pool pic.twitter.com/Cw61BaDP9X
So my concern with this map is obviously #2 and that is something to think on more than El Ninos far out in the ocean or cool pools of water on the other side of the globe. But as I love maps I do love to watch weather everywhere and our atmospheric patterns connect so I'm always watching the water vapor loop or some such loop watching it all evolve.
Great progression of weather systems.
Yesterday's hail storm is gone moving Eastbound.
Another system may form and hug the coast.
Maybe.
I know this because Cranky said so.
And Dabuh has been pointing it out.
And, I'm watching the models and the loops.
Maybe.
Patterns repeat.
If this pattern persists we could have Subtropicals form close in.
Or Tropical Storms forming close in...
Whenever I think on 2012 I always remember
Alberto and Beryl.
Media was filled with "early season development....
...does not mean a busy season"
They were wrong.
After Alberto and Beryl I remember Sandy.
It was a busy season.
Never judge a hurricane season....
.... until it's in the rear view mirror.
Divide the image of the 2012 Hurricane Season in half.
The systems that formed close in and made landfall.
And the ones that formed in the MDR.
Yes two made it to landfall.
The rest swam out to sea.
But it was a dangerous season for this part of the tropics.
Something to think on as we move towards June 1st.
Or storms that form before the start of the Hurricane Season.
The end is often concealed in the beginning.
But we don't see that until we look back.
2012 started early.....
.... and ended late.
If you aren't into baseball you might want to read a book.
Great book by one of the earliest, best ecologists around.
Back at the turn of the century... the last one.
Ralph Munroe built sailboats.
He built the first real home in Coconut Grove.
He recorded weather events in his journals.
He knew Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay well.
He sailed everywhere....
...he told them not to build the Overseas Railroad the way they did.
He told them it would be catastrophic in a hurricane.
It's a great read, you can get lost for days in that book.
I know because I do often as I own it.
It's on my top shelf where my favorite books are kept.
Have a great day and hope things evolve for you today the way you want them to....
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter ... follow me there for real time updates.
Ps.... nice song stuck in my head now .. I'm not really a Joni Mitchell person. I'm more a Melanie and Judy Collins type from that era though currently love Maren Morris ;) but she understood seasons and lyrics and words and music so posting the song. Her voice is too high for me. Love the lyrics.
System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.
Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.
And talking a bit on hurricane season.
Along with a few other things for various reasons.
Before I talk on this further note....
That huge storm off the NW coast.
That is not a hurricane...
It's cyclonic....
Winter weather is far from over.
Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.
Today off the SE coast is a small system.
Up close you can see it below.
See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?
This is a system that is coming together.
TWC is on the scene.
Surf's up.
Windy.
Stormyish.
Locals are barely talking on it.
But for weather people it's weather.
Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...
..future episodes about NASCAR or ??
If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!
When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail. I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.
Tropical Cyclone Iba Off the South American Coast Near Brazil. Rare South Atlantic Storm.
That's the coast of Brazil.
It's not China and it's not South Carolina.
And that's Iba...
Tropical Cyclone Iba.
Unless you are a real tropical cyclone person...
..you probably didn't hear about it.
It doesn't show up on the NHC main page.
It says nothing going on in the Atlantic.
I guess they mean North Atlantic..
There are a lot of basins to be fair.
And though not unprecedented it's rare.
2019 Storms ... NRL doesn't show Iba.
But Iba is there none the less.
What's interesting to me is to look back over other years that produced a South Atlantic Cyclone and to see if there are any similarities we can see between this year and that year. This is the time of year when all the mitigating factors that contribute to hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin are studied to see which may be factors in the particular hurricane season.
Everyone online has been watching models.
Mike is always watching the tropics.
Models are hinting at development of a Low.
But that low is not likely to get a nod from the NHC.
The NWS will be issuing any necessary watches and warnings.
High surf, wind at the coast...
Who can say .... it hasn't formed but seems it will.
Rob's Crown Weather Services is a paid service.
He issues daily reports.
It's worth noting he's been talking on it for a while.
And DaBuh who never let a good wave go to waste....
...has been watching and posting online.
You definitely want to follow him if...
1) you do tropical weather
2) you live near the Florida or East Coast
3) if you surf anywhere near those beaches.
#OBX Low Pressure....
Very possible.
Each new system has followed a similar set up.
Back here to the Carolina coast.
Interesting how there was a large front and then....
..a small mini reflection here shown to the Wouth of it.
As we move deeper into the 2019 year....
..more fronts will fall apart and dangle off the SE coast.
They will need to be watched carefully.
Dabuh has been watching water temperatures a lot lately.
As in daily watching important areas with early development.
The water off the Yucatan is hot enough to boil eggs..
..okay it just feels that warm.
Bathtub Warm.
Early season development likes very warm water.
When the air temperature is in the high 80s in the Florida Keys.
And when the Yucatan is this warm.
Trouble is likely to happen early.
There are a lot of maps on Spaghetti Models.
You might want to scroll down and look around.
They could become useful sooner rather than later.
Just because there's no tropical updates from the NHC...
...doesn't mean there isn't weather in the tropics.
Florida.... What Happen to the Dry Season? Grinch Stole Christmas AND the Dry Season .. Mother Nature Hungover
When I see this sort of signature on the satellite imagery what comes to mind is that somewhere down the tropical road fronts will dangle in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and warm waters will percolate the left over showers and if high pressure is to the North it's very probable we will see some early season development. And then immediately several academics I won't mention by name will Tweet and write articles about how early season tropical development doesn't mean it will be a busy season and the reason I am posting this now is that South Florida is going to have a messy week rain wise and March is to tourists what diamonds were to Elizabeth Taylor but not this year.... as rain keeps showing up in the forecast during what is usually the driest, most beautiful time of the year. Snowbirds they be flapping wet floppy wings this year when they try to head back up north.
Already you will notice an anemic Low try to form along the front and then it heads up along the coast.
Hasn't been much of a "Dry Season" in South Florida, one can only wonder what the Monsoon Season has in store? A hurricane or a drought? One wonders as it's 32 degrees in March in Raleigh after a very warm February. Mother Nature seems to be drunk on something this particular year.
Spring Flooding.... It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better... Especially Where Snow Keeps Falling & Rain Keeps Raining...
Just one of many mentions recently I made on potential for flooding.
If you have been reading you know I've mentioned my concerns.
Spring Flooding was a done deal to happen this year.
But I hadn't heard much about it until today in the media.
They had to actually evacuate the NWS office in Nebraska!
Earlier in the week I ranted on my concerns about Spring Flooding and even before that few weeks ago. Everyone is watching the forecast models for when NY and Boston actually get snow and how far South the Snowline will get and few people are aware of what the real dangers are and that is and has been River Flooding in the Heartland and the South. You can add in California and parts of the West Coast where Winter has not stopped delivering El Nino inspired heavy rainfall.
An excellent map of the rivers and flooding problems.
The sad part about flooding is few people talk about it until after the creek rises and the cars begin to float away. Then, after the fact, the reporters flock in for live shots and dramatic images but there has been a kind of hush by those weather powers that be on the potential for Spring Flooding while they chase after the Z named Winter Storm and excite people with the possibility of flakes falling in Brooklyn... which by the way is not really news in the Winter as call it by any name you want it's Winter and winter weather happens somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere every day.
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Severe weather happens suddenly, it's hyped for days and sometimes it does what the models showed it would do and sometimes it outperforms. Spring is prime time for severe weather but it's also prime time for Spring Flooding. And nothing is more dramatic to stare at speechlessly is ongoing flooding imagery but the quieter images of flooded countryside is humbling and horrific.
Heavy rain this winter in the South has swollen the rivers higher than normal, then snow melting up to the North flowing down into those already swollen rivers exacerbates the potential for historic flooding or just regular, plain ole horrible flooding destroying people's homes and farms. I mention farms because rivers are a life source for farmers and yet when they overflow too much of a good thing is well not a good thing.
It's been a kind of horrific day with images from New Zealand broadcast around the world and the sad reality of hate focused on any group anywhere especially while people are going about their lives praying at their chosen house of worship. After the Church killings in Charleston someone on television made a comment that resonated with me deeply or possibly after the Tree of Life murders in Pittsburgh and that is that people busy praying are a soft target as their backs are usually towards the door and they are lost in prayer. It's very, very sad. And somewhere between the parade of candidates presenting themselves for consideration and worrying on planes needing to be grounded temporarily at least we have spent most of this week wondering what next will happen. Now we know. New Zealand, a quiet, beautiful, pastoral paradise to many has been turned into a killing ground. Sincere prayers go out to the families of those wounded and killed while praying ... just tired and kind of speechless. To be honest I've been a bit speechless all week as I try to mentally navigate myself though March and wonder where I'll be in April.
I've been baking for Purim and making packages that have to be mailed out early as my children live in various different cities far from here and I want them to arrive on time. Now I'll focus on making Purim packages for friends in Raleigh but where will I be for Passover? Not sure... don't know. Though pretty sure I may be in New York for Lag B'Omer. Time and the calendar is a moving target and I'm flushed out and exhausted with memories of different places I've lived and times I was happier. I don't mean to go negative but life is what it is... wonderful and beautiful but too much of a good thing is like when rain falls in too much abundance and it washes everything away in it's path. Can't be everywhere at once so I guess I miss Long Beach California when everyone was where I could find them easily, my two best friends were nearby and really fun, smart, great friends and we used to party on Purim so much I can't quite remember it all :) I worked for Chabad in the 1980s in California and it was good times, I gotta tell you. Mass School Shootings were not yet a thing, but El Nino did go on the rampage when I lived in LA and there are those memories too. Snow on the mountains and blue skies and beaches nearby. Speaking of beaches I miss Miami Beach but no one lives there anymore from my family and my friends all moved away (well my best friends moved, I still have friends there) and so I'm kind of a moving target these days and maybe target was a bad choice of words :(
And not to forget Hurricanes there was one on the other side of the world recently... Idai made landfall over Mozambique... massive flooding, keep those people in your thoughts and prayers indeed.
As for me I'm going to start cooking. Listening to the wind as I have the windows open here and hoping to see some mild severe weather or enough to not be your typical boring sort of Raleigh rain. Not complaining about Raleigh really because as the weather warms there is much to do and the flowers are coming up and we haven't yet got to that time when the pollen starts falling.
Maybe go to my best friend for Passover... her husband and my husband are good friends and maybe... time will tell.
Stay tuned........... Stay safe and if you live anywhere near a river that is prone to flooding in the Spring time know you may not hear much about it until after it begins to flood as sadly flooding before it happens is not covered as much as severe weather, snow possibilities and hurricanes. But as I said earlier .... snow melt + heavy rain and swollen rivers = Spring Flooding in the same way mudslides happen in LA after the fires burn the hillside and El Nino sends more rain... it's a cycle as old as time.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps... Yes there was smog in the LA basin centuries ago from the fires used to cook food by the Chumash Indians and/or fires started by lightning and accidents by above mentioned fires and then even back then when it poured the mountain slides washed away everything .... some things are part of the way of the world and weather and have been happening since time began. In the Everglades in South Florida lightning would start fires centuries ago and that was considered good in an odd way as it burned off the bigger brush stopping it from taking over the marshlands... not as bad as water from heavy rains that would allow animals on high ground to be stranded and unable to get back to their food source or families. Mother Nature has always been a force to be reckoned with before we decided to pollute the earth with Styrofoam and plastic and build big cities on sandbars that used to be partially covered with mangroves not meant for subdivisions but oh what beautiful subdivisions.
Winter On the Way Out... Spring Not Totally Here ... Hurricane Season in the Wings. Good Women Meteorologist to Follow... Amy Freeze
Adrian Linares is really good to follow online!
I'm wanting to write something about this set of storms, including the much awaited last one in this series that many are watching on models while dreaming of the Great March Super Storm of 1993 as others are dreaming on tropical waves. I don't like to hype and I don't write this blog just to get clicks as much as to write on things that are worth warning people about and giving a measure of explanation and a little bit of entertainment along the way.
Listening to Country today and that's good. I mostly enjoy listening to country while in NY while driving through the Boro Park section of Brooklyn while blasting Nash Country (one of the best Country Radio Stations in the country) (yeah I did that twice on purpose) and okay I am a bit silly today officially..
It's a big country and everyone is watching their own little piece of paradise and so everyone has their own priorities. I live in the Carolinas when I am not home in Florida so my thoughts go to tropical weather along with severe weather faster than watching to see how much snow is going to be dumped on South Dakota. But this is a huge system and where you live means a lot as to your own concerns.
That's a lot of rain falling over the next five days.
And may I add in this reminder.......
... snow melt and rain = Spring Floods.
Maybe not this week but it's coming.
It's a long range concern I've had.
More weather for Florida and the Southeast.
As the flow from the GOM just goes on and on.
And I do think it will go on as we move towards May.
......and you surfed this would have your attention.
This was two days ago he posted this.
He's always got his eye on the tropics.....
Far out.
Close in.
It's all on the table for discussion.
My problem with the big winter storm is this...
...I'm tired of it.
Cranky has nailed this with the following statement.
Rinse and Repeat Pattern.
Gotta tell you it's gets boring after a while.
Especially when some try to HYPE every storm.
It's called Winter.
If something turns into a Superstorm.....
...that's history.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry that TWC is selling...
... are just rinse, repeat
It gets boring after a while.
Gotta good beat.
It's weather.
It's happening-ish.
Waiting for that big closer.
You know when they bring the new storm in at the end.
Of course if Boston gets SNOW they win again.
Everyone wants snow.
Everyone on the EAST coast that is...
Seattle and Minnesota are so done with snow.
Yes, it's that time of year.
Snow people get desperate .....
..hurricane people get snarky.
The in between time...
Winter in the rear view mirror.
Hurricane Season down the road.
And storm chasers are on the road.
This is there time of year.
Yes Virginia we ARE going to have a Tornado Season this year.
You'll soon wish it was over if the trend continues.
And what do I think?
I think I'm tired of an endless progression of no neck winter storms slamming into the West Coast with fury and dumping snow up where it belongs and teasing people in the South, Mid Atlantic and Northeast with snow and then wimping out in less than a blaze of glory.
So many things you can learn from Tennessee Williams. That man was a master of words, drama and not a drop of mediocrity anywhere near him. And, he knew Key West too and knew where he wanted to live enough to move his house cross town to the lot he where he wanted to live. You learn there are times to keep your mouth shut and not tell secrets and there are times when you know you have had enough and hear the "click" and sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. Elizabeth Taylor was born to act in Tennessee Williams dramas.
Yes The Weather Channel can name them anything they want and trot them out to try and get ratings but it has not been a winter of incredible storms to remember and most likely the early one in November will be the matching bookend to the one that will happen in late March or even April. Mother Nature has a way of snapping back and trying to correct an imbalance but she is moving on to Severe Weather Season in the Plains and the Deep South as deep Gulf of Mexico Moisture rises up into the heartland and slams into descending mediocre but cold enough cold fronts to cause trouble along many river cities. And those rivers will rise as we move later into Spring and snow melting along the cities along the Mississippi River and it's many tributaries will meet up with Spring rains and the forecast I'm making is that means floods. I hate to say that but it's about as much a given as mud slides in California after fires during an El Nino.
I'll talk on El Nino another time, today this is about this week's multi-faceted Winter Storm system.
I'll update tomorrow.
I think the Gulf of Mexico will produce and deliver a few early Tropical named Systems and areas off the coast of the Florida Georgia Line will produce Subtropicals that play peek a boo with South Carolina. Yes Fishing I'm talking about you :) I really need to do a road trip bad. But a good road trip hitting all the right places sooner rather than later.
So buckle up everyone because Mother Nature is trying to hit you one more time with a winter storm and then we can move on to packing up the winter clothes, boots and doing a real Spring Cleaning!
Gosh that girl can sing.
Last but not LEAST...
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH EARTHQUAKES AND FLORIDA?
Florida Georgia Line indeed....
Mike (who I should lead with but the ending is important!)
I learned about this from Mike.
Not Dutchsince (Quake Icon some people love)
But Mike from Spaghetti Models.
Thus proving my point.
All meteorologists and closet geologists...
...and vice versa!
My brother constantly sends me links to Mike.
It's kind of cute in an endearing annoying way.
:)
Baby Brothers ...what can I say?
Yes, I follow Mike....
...I've followed Mike for more years than I want to admit.
Sometimes Mike follows me ;)
Hurricane Season is coming.
And it seems the area hit by Hurricane Michael...
...affected by tornadoes is being hit by mild earthquakes.
When you're hot you're hot...
It's an active part of the planet it seems in all ways.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
