Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 31, 2017

UPDATED TS Emily Es No Mas. DEAD. TDish.... Stay tuned.... Makes Landfall on Anna Maria Island ... Tampa Bay. Weather is All Over South Florida. Need to Watch Out for Tornadoes That Could Spin Up and Localized Flooding.

Going to be brief here. Really.
Emily es no mas.
That means she is no more.
Newcomers to Florida need to learn some Spanish.
Newcomers to Florida need to know this was not really a TS.
Perhaps for a short, brief time this morning .. maybe.
The NHC made that call so it's "official"
So "Emily" Like "Cindy" is on the books.
And "Emily" like "Cindy" made landfall.
And "Emily" was downgraded.

I'm going to say what Larry Cosgrove said this morning to me. "Larry Cosgrove "TD 6" is actually an MCS along a cold front moving through Central Florida."  I don't make the call I just write here and disseminate information, in my own way, that the NHC has introduced, designated or upgraded. Even if I disagree and Lord knows old timers here know I often have been vocal in disagreeing. Often some west bound tropical wave that almost had an eye, banding and outflow was not upgraded and I was upset. But never have I seen anything like this that I can remember.  But as the stupid saying goes... "it is what is is" so it was Emily. 

Now it is worth saying that Emily may redevelop in the Atlantic around the Gulfstream as several models have proposed as a solution to the Invest that was.. The other day I said it showed a tantalizing solution and that is what I was talking about. That is why the Raleigh weather is covering Emily this afternoon with regard to it's effect on NC beaches in several days. Anything from stronger rip tides to more is a question until we see for sure what the remnants of Emily do after leaving Florida.

It is worth mentioning there was some localized flooding, a tree fell on a house where people lived and other assorted weather phenomenon associated with what might have briefly been a Tropical Depression embedded into a frontal boundary that wasn't even dead yet. Oh and Miami predictably got the worst of it weather wise and the wicked weather did make it into the Florida Keys as I said it would.

Rather than totally blast the NHC for upgrading a front to depression status let alone giving it the name Emily, that at this rate will remain a tropical name forever, I'll just say it's good to be able to joke around and talk with friends. And, I value their input tremendously. Larry Cosgrove is incredible in his grasp of global weather and intricate geography as well as obviously weather of all kind. Jim Williams is another one I respect tremendously. Friends I've met such as "@Crankyweatherguy" on Twitter show consistency and a depth of understanding complicated weather. Friends like Cody know what they are talking about and are fun to talk about... DaBuh, Sue... and never last but always high up there Mike. So many I respect such as Rob from Crown Weather and we all do what we do in a different way and help people understand what is going on. Nothing personal the people at the NHC are incredible, some are my friends, but their official package can be wanting sometimes especially these days.  New innovations have been good, but well .. let's just leave it here.. before i go there. It was a low... but one of the weakest and shortest lived Tropical Storms I have ever seen. I practically live at Spaghetti Models these days and once upon a time I used to practically live on the NHC site. That says a lot.. and I know they are trying. 

Can we just wake up tomorrow like that old Dallas Season when the previous season was just a bad dream. 

More so what really annoys me is they pull a misplaced yellow circle from the main page while covering "Tropical Storm Emily" which was basically a front with a small attached vortex and wicked weather.  Expect both to come back. A new wave coming off of Africa is a contender to try and make it past Sheriff SAL and the wave that fell apart has pulled itself together and is still chugging along without a yellow circle.  There is more disarray currently in how the NHC is doing things than there is at the White House and well... you know how that's been going. We like living by guidelines and rules when dealing with Tropical entities and explaining that to the public. Note to public in Tampa you haven't seen nothing if you think that's a real Tropical Storm. 

Continue to watch the tropics for more developments.
If you remember there was a Low to the East of Florida.
"Emily" may be hopping ENE to that low.
Transferring energy ... being kind here.
And the models did develop the Invest there previously.

I'll do a normal update tomorrow.
* * * 
If you slept late you can continue reading what happened today..

Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at Anna Maria Island.

For those of you not familiar with that spot...
..whose family didn't help develop and sell lots there in the 1920s.

It juts out there and at the mouth to Tampa Bay.
A real paradise on a day there is no Emily.
Well if you like stormy weather today would be the day!

Up close view of Emily from NRL

You can see it's curling up some and asserting itself.
The front is to the South and still pushing South.

Going to give this one to Mike as he's on top of it.
Well I suppose Emily is on top of Mike.

You can see banding that shows up on radar.
In those bands there could be waterspouts or tornadoes.
So just because it's a weak tropical storm don't count it out.

Another view of the track is shown below.

That's the Canadian Hurricane Center's track map.
Why are they tracking Emily?
It will impact areas near Canada down the road.

Currently it's moving at 9 MPH 
It is not "barreling" as I've heard it said on TV today.
I suppose that's sort of a literary license.
The front has pretty much stalled out.
Steering currents are there but weak.
It is not barreling anywhere.

Movement is East at 9 MPH.
Again this is a mute point as it's weather is moving everywhere.
Winds 45 MPH at the surface.
Worth point out there are stronger winds higher up.
If those winds can work their way down to the surface.
If... always an IF with regard to tropical entities.

The track and forecast strength intensity is basically an extrapolation of the previous forecast package so not much to say on that. Again . The explanation for the upgrade and the current condition of TS Emily is explained in the 11 AM Discussion from the NHC that you can read below. I highlighted the part that was most important.

The concerns here are localized flooding far from the center of Tropical Storm Emily as the "weather mass" has been sheared away to the South and has already spread across SE Florida. This set up kind of reminds me of Irene in 1999 that was headed towards Naples and her weather went right to the SE coast of Florida swamping Miami with tropical rains, flooding and some power outages. I don't expect that level of intensity in the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area but this weather is moving as I type down into Monroe County. So while the "center" may come ashore near Tampa Bay it's weather is everywhere.

And another concern I have is that this sort of Tropical Storm in this area that is connected still to a frontal boundary often affects this part of Florida in October and November and they are prone to spinning up tornadoes. This set up is a bit different but similar enough to be concerned. And a bigger concern is the lack of concern as many have not heard about the upgrade and as they don't see a well defined storm they think the threat for any danger is minimal. It's way minimal than a Cat 3 Hurricane or even a Cat 1, however Florida often gets tornadoes as tropical systems cross the state from west to east. A good example of this was Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996.

Wrong time of year.
Formation involved a front.
Similar track.
Worth remembering.
At least 16 tornadoes formed from Josephine.

And far away from Emily in Miami the weather is volatile.
And cooler! First time they have not reached 90 in a while.
My friend posted this earlier from today on Facebook.

My brother sent me this image earlier from Miami.

So from Tampa to Melbourne...
From Miami down to the Florida Keys.
Everyone is in it because of Emily.

And note how far East the warning have moved below:

After crossing Florida Emily is forecast to regain strength.
As a minimal Tropical Storm and follow the models out to sea.
However, the slightest variance could bring it close to NE NC.
As in Outer Banks need to keep watching.
The power is sadly still out there now.
Read previous posts as a cable was damaged ..
...not a good story, a clearly marked cable.

So what is the take away here. At any point a tornado could spin up. There was a warning up earlier. The Sunshine Skyway Bridge is closed as they have experienced Tropical Storm Force winds. This was sent to me on Twitter earlier. Embedded in Emily are areas of strong, isolated weather. I haven't had a chance to check the details, but it shows a nice image of where and when Emily made landfall. Anna Maria Island, near Holmes Beach at the mouth of Tampa Bay.

Below shows a wide view

My wave out in the Atlantic that I've been watching is still there.
So watch Emily today but don't rule out that wave.
Sooner or could spin up into something.
Hey no one thought last night we would have Emily today.

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Don't say I didn't warn ya... 
Waves in search of warm water and lighter shear may be here soon.
As waves or something more.
Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Oddly today is the anniversary of My Aunt Ada's passing. Ada was named after her mother Ida Ada who lived in Tampa. My Grandparents are buried in Tampa in the Old Jewish Cemetery there. My Great Uncle was involved in the early sales of both Holmes Beach and Anna Maria Island properties. Aunt Ada kept three of those lots for years until they were eventually sold. So... here's to Aunt Ada... and Uncle Jake and Uncle Morris who helped sell property there in the Roaring 20s. Actually I believe my Great Grandmother used to picnic there with family so... here's a nice view of Anna Maria Island's history and how it looks today. Then as now it's always been paradise and there seems some odd karma in this today. Luckily it's a very weak tropical storm. But stay on top of the weather before it's on top of you! 

As always in Florida there's a link to pirates ;)

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UPDATED - Tropical Storm EMILY Forms From Tropical Depression 6 Forms Near Tampa Moving East. Hello Tampa... Tropical Wake Up Call This Morning .. Wave Down to 10% in ATL

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Tropical Storm Emily has formed.
Upgraded at 8 AM.
I'll update the blog again at 11 AM
After a new full forecast package.

Track the same.
And again worth saying again..
Most of the weather is on the SOUTH side.
Good post by Phil Ferro of effects in South Florida.


Tropical Depression 6

Slow moving Tropical Depression.
East bound.

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Tropical Depression 6 formed in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning as it's center is visible on radar and satellite imagery just off shore. Ascat made a pass confirming other surface observations. I'll post a link to the discussion from the NHC. As mentioned yesterday it seems to want to visit Tampa and the other beautiful West Coast beaches. It will then cross of Florida and emerge into the Atlantic. Shear will be lightening up at that time and there is some room for intensification at that time. It is currently West of Tampa or let's say part of it hovering over land and the center just off shore.

Advisories began at 6 AM and as you are looking at the satellite imagery above you can see how this is slowly dominating as an entity and looking less like a large front with strong convection. And the Tampa area is used to strong thunderstorms, however this could produce some localized flooding.

Currently the forecast is for the winds to stay offshore..
...after leaving Florida. 

A good radar image is shown below.

Where does it go after this? Models show it crossing over Florida as I have discussed here previously. This is a pretty set in stone track right now as it rides up the coast either closer to the coast where there could be more interaction or further offshore. It's a fluid situation, changing fast so if you live in the area of the cone and associated track check back often for any changes in strength or track. Also note that as it is a small Tropical Depression in the process trying to evolve into a weak Tropical Storm other weather associated with it can pop up fast over a wide air. This may not get a name and remain a Tropical Depression. Again small tight, compact Cat 1 Hurricanes are easier to track exactly than the weather associated with a small developing depression moving onto land at the tail end of a cold front. And, this front has not gone flat yet as part of it is still pushing and keeping TD6 lower than previously expected.

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The 12 hour loop below shows the birth of TD6

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The wave in the Atlantic is not doing well.
There is SAL as previously discussed.
It is juicing up the atmosphere.
It's part of the process of the tropics coming alive.
In the same way that a diving cold front flips a switch often.

I'll be back with more information throughout the day.
Stay tuned.. 

Again currently as of 6 AM this is forecast to stay a TD.
That could change so check back often.
If you live anywhere in the SW Florida area..
...or along the SE Florida coast this is going to amp up the storms.
The shear from the NW is pushing the strong weather across FL.

Drive safe. It's going to be a wet commute this morning.

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Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Check often with your local NWS office for localized impacts.
It gets updated in real time.
If you county is one over from a warning...
..stay on top of it!

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Sunday, July 30, 2017

UPDATED 98L in E GOM - 2 Areas of Interest in the Tropics. E GOM 20% & 30% African Wave. OBX Shut Down This Week But Not From a Hurricane.. Seattle Fire Ball... a meteor? Weekend Round Up.

As of 8 PM Invest 98L has a 30% chance of forming.
Yes we now have Invest 98L in the Eastern GOM.

A bit closer view below.

And the sun is setting.... 
...have to see what it looks like in the morning.

Again models show at the most weak storm.
Many show tropical depression status.
As always depends on timing.
How fast does this spin up if it does?

It's small and it needs to detach from the front.
There's shear currently.
It's small.
Kind of more than a swirl but not there yet.
Possibly tomorrow it can go subtropical or tropical.
It's visible on long range radar...see below.

Tail end of the front.
Also notice the NE side of the front as well.

As I said earlier today....
With or without a name it brings rain.
Mucho rain... drenching Florida.

Larger view below:

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Look at that cold front mixing it up over Cuba.
Enhanced convection... so close.
July 30th.

So as the sun goes down...
...I'm gonna let y'all watch it loop a bit.
See what we shall see in the morning.

Oh in the East Atlantic the wave is trying hard.

Impressive bad ass front!
Yup. That's what she said.
Please make more of them... she added.

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Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Keep reading if you did do so earlier today.

Let's take this apart one area at a time. Close in we have the area that has been introduced by the NHC in the Eastern GOM near Florida. Part of this area is basically over Florida if you have been following the watches and warnings for severe weather there today and yesterday. The front, the incredibly beautiful front, is draped across the Northern part of Florida. And there it sits and as always we watch the tail of fronts that stop dead in the warm water of late July or August.

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This is one reason I've mentioned fronts and the GOM for days.
Models have consistently shown something forming.
Very close in.

And so far away we have the beautiful wave.

That was the wave exiting.
Just directly over the beach at Dakar.
This was one of John Hope's favorite adages.
The waves have to move further north to Dakar.
When they start to come off by Dakar you watch.
August is Tuesday so we are that close...

Still holding strong. 
Can't say how long.
But for now :)

Another view above.

With regard to the SE and the possible coastal low it's worth remembering the water is very warm. Crazy warm and wouldn't take a lot for something small to try and spin up and ride it's way up the coast. It's worth noting water in the E GOM is warmer than just off the Jax coast. But along the East Coast there is ample warm water to get some spin going. Put this in motion and you see what the problem is in North Florida currently.

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The other problem is the issue of timing. For a low to develop it really needs to sit there a while vs crossing over Florida rapidly and the shear is strong where it is currently. The water vapor loop shows the front still on the move. Not the most welcome environment to sit a spell and hang out. But it is producing a lot of convection that will remain in the area for the next few days. Mike has a great link up on the bottom left of his main page. It shows lightning in real time and it's on fire in several spots around the globe but especially North Florida. That's lightning, not some earthquake ticker ;)

Note regardless of development the SE will see tons of rain.
That's a lot of rain.
For areas flooding it's a huge sigh and grief.
For areas trying to avoid heat index in 100s it's relief.
It doesn't need a name to rain...

And that is why the NHC posted the yellow circle.
No floater and only 20%
As always that figure could change in real time at 2 PM.
And then again at 8 PM... 

You'll notice two things here.
They show that more and more I'm a Carolina girl.

Honestly though I'm just being honest.
It's more likely something forms closer to Carolinas.
Coastal Low of some sort rides the coast.
Could it get a name?
Stay tuned.

Will a piece of the energy slide across Florida.
And leave a piece behind in the GOM?

The Euro shows a Low visits Mike in Tampa.
Crosses the state and moves on.
Stops in to say hello..
..take a dip in his pool.
Meet his girls.. 
Makes sense.

And weakly develops my wave in the Atlantic.
Then eventually it loses it but...we will see ...
The last frame is tantalizing.
More from the coastal low than the wave. has the models up and they are linked at the top left on Spaghetti Models.  Most sites have them but Levi Cowan does a great, enormous and wonderful job putting them out there with definition and clarity.

I'll update later on this set up as it is pregnant with possibilities but not with potential to develop into a Rhodes Scholar. If anything develops it's staying close to home and going to Community College in the short term. Who knows after that?

Another few stories I wanted to mention are below. A lot of weather related stories worth mentioning. 

First off you don't need a tropical entity to shut down the Outer Banks. Usually in late July the biggest fear in OBX and the associated Carolina beaches is the threat of a hurricane shutting down the beaches at the height of summer. Carolina beach season really ends around first few weeks in August. School starts early, teachers go back to work and parents have to buy school supplies and uniforms. There is a flurry of beach going on Labor Day Weekend but the big beach rentals that come with people who spend money is now. This is prime time and a mistake in ongoing construction on the Bonner Bridge has shut down parts of North Carolina beaches.  This is really heartbreaking for people who have spent months planning family vacations and even more so for the small businesses there that make a good percentage of their annual revenue during this crucial time. Huge loss of money. Plain and simple. 

The EPAC is NOT done as models produce more tropical trouble in that area.

Taiwan has had problems this weekend with Typhoon Nesat creating flooding.
Areas in the South and the Mid Atlantic have had huge flooding problems without a named storm.
My son lived in Overland Park Kansas for a while years back while interning at Garmin. I have other friends there. I was pretty sure the Chabad House there would be affected in the flooding. They've been there 30 years, this is the first time they have had this type of flooding. He said it looked like they had been in a hurricane zone on an interview online.

Another cold front may move down across the US, not as strong but still it would be interesting to see another cold front make it through the heat ridge. If so that would be three in a row moving across an area that doesn't expect to see frontal passages this time of year. 

The NW is HOT. Heat ridge developing and holding tight. 

Speaking of the NW the sky in Seattle lit up late last night with what appears to have been a meteor. Some people questioned if it could be space junk re-entering the atmosphere. Late July stray meteors can often be seen that break from the pack. Eventually this meteor mystery will have a conclusion. Wish I was there and had seen it...

My Bottom Line for the tropics today is that consistency is good with regard to the larger than average wave that has more convection in it than the last few that have rolled off of Africa. A look at the loop below though shows the pretty unfriendly environment the wave has to transverse to get to the really warmer water. It also shows the complicated set up in the Eastern GOM. Even if the wave dies (as it could obviously) it will do much to juice up the atmosphere that SAL has dried out over the last few months. And that is often what happens with great early tropical waves. They are part of the process to get us closer to prime time.

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Water temperature is friendlier further west.
Stay tuned.

Swim big wave ...swim...or you ain't gonna make it.

As for the GOM feature.
Going to quote Rob here from

"Analysis of radar loops and visible satellite imagery indicates that a low pressure system may be forming to the south of Fort Walton Beach, Florida near 28.8 North Latitude, 86.8 West Longitude. The formation of low pressure forming over the very warm waters of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is something that will be watched closely over the next couple of days for signs of tropical development." 

He's good at pin pointing low pressure and his thoughts match mine in many ways as he is watching for a low to develop closer up the coast near the Carolinas. He explains why in his posts he sends out. If you want to become a subscriber to his service check him out he's good. And, I say that as time tells in the world of weather forecasting. Over time you learn who you trust and who you feel is just hyping every passing feature to attain attention. And that has always been around with regard to discussion online on news, weather or sports.

As for the East Atlantic Wave he is also watching. Who couldn't watch that loves tropical weather as it's a heavier, healthier wave than most. If someone tells you they aren't watching don't believe them as if they have to comment on it they know it's there and they have been watching. Again quoting from Rob's site Nice picture...

Another voice I listen to is shown below.
He's on Twitter check him out.

So so agree. 
So going off and getting outside.
Cause it is so fine to be in Carolina this morning ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow along and join in the discussion.

For my friend who knows who they are ....

#rollingeyes... had the most awesome gown on last night ;) in a dream.

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