Tropics Quiet...Where Could We Look For Surprise Development? Let's Say ...Unexpected.....

 

Short blog today. Not much to say. NHC says no development in 7 days. While that's plausible, it's not carved in stone. We often see a yellow circle pop up somewhere after being insistent nothing will form. Weather happens in real time, models try and predict what may or may not happen. So, that being said where could we see possible development try and "pop up" close in versus a tropical wave that we will track for weeks til landfall. 

From left to right........

1. Around the Yucatan, a hot spot this year, there's convection gathering there. If conditions change in any way even a little, something could try and develop ....so watch for flare ups and persistent convection.

2. The colorful complex of persistent convection in the Bahamas from Florida to Bahamas and to the East of the Bahamas. I don't have to say more it stares in our face getting bolder in color every day. Sometimes in that region close in when we have convection in place and a dying frontal boundary descends with a low attached and gets into that region, decaying yet sort of merging with what is there...sometimes something flares up close in ........especially in July.

3. There's a weak, westbound wave that has hung in there in the Atlantic under the SAL, staying alive despite coming off the same time as the wild surge of SAL exploded. That could get further West and if alive mix it up with one of the areas previously mentioned. Or it could slide West into the EPAC that's trying hard to come alive but so far has been hard to get spin close in versus further West. Always keep an eye on persistent tropical waves that are sneaky!

Stay tuned. Models are awesome, but sometimes they miss things or underestimate an area's possibility for development. And, when they do...suddenly a new model pops up and shows possibilities and then like a sleepy dog the NHC raises up it's head, sniffs around and throws us a yellow circle the way it's owner throws it a bone.

Just my thoughts on July 21st, 2024 in the tropics.

Have a great day...

BobbiStorm

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Ps........................Keep watching all the popular spots for late July!