Yellow X with 10% Chances OFF SE Coast... New Wave Off of Africa. And a Storm of Controversy on Why It's Taking So Long To Get Power on in Houston After a Cat 1 Hurricane. Are You Prepared for the Next Hurricane Making Landfall??

 

 

Still 10% Yellow off SE Coast.

Deep convection.

Sitting over Gulf Stream

Hot Water.

Is there some sort of center?

Not yet, but it's sure trying.

Elongated but still......

....looks better than 10%

I'd give it a 20%

Rainmaker indeed.

So that's really it for the tropics today, except mentioning that a new tropical wave was introduced by the NHC on their TWO this morning. And, there is way too much intense convection down in Gulf of Honduras.  Time will tell, time will always tell.

There's a big controversy online as to whether Beryl was a Cat 2 at landfall vs a Cat 1 and the debate goes on and on. And, more so as parts of Houston are still without power, not to mention down by the coast in small towns that get power back slowly as well. Then we have the whole area to the North of Houston all the way up to Maine where tornadaoes formed everywhere along the track of Inland Beryl. 

What frustrated me most is that I spoke on the threat on tornadoes and was told by a few people I didn't know what I was talking about. When Tornado Chasers get in place up the road from Beryl, trust me we will see tornadoes. The atmosphere was ripe for them. I said there would be flooding inland and people told me it wasn't such a flood maker. I don't argue the point, I wait for things to shake out the way they will in real time and they sadly did. There is always a naysayer looking to argue on social media or at the dinner table when the family gets together. 

We need to learn more about weather history, especially hurricane history. In general people don't focus on history as much as they used to and that's sad as history repeats.  Everything is about history. Be it politics, wars, droughts, mass migration of a culture from one place to another such as when the Irish Potato Famine gifted America the wonderful gift of Irish people coming to our shores. The Dust Bowl gifted California with many Oakies who left with all they could pile in an old pick up truck in search of places they could live and make a living. 

There are misconceptions out there that unless a hurricane is a Cat 4 or more .... "it won't be such a problem" is incorrect thinking. I've had people tell me "it's only a Cat 3" and I just go "oh.... " and stay away from that third hot rail the way I would people asking me what I think politically. It's a matter of people being misinformed. It's a matter of the media playing up or playing down a hurricane on any given day and the nature of NEWS is and always has been selling a story. 

Often a hurricane or tropical storm intensifies at landfall as it is literally coming ashore ...often along the Gulf of Mexico coastline and also in the curve of the neck of Georgia/Florida and the Carolinas over hot water and boom it's a hurricane. Julia, a tropical wave and invest with low chances of developing was named over land in Florida after making landfall, and it delivered a punch along the coast and that was indeed a minimal tropical storm. It wasn't a big punch but it takes time to pick up the pieces and when they are your pieces it's a bigger punch indeed. Beryl was 60 MPH for a long while and yet the NHC kept forecasting a hurricane and possibly as strong as 85 MPH. They predicted close in intensificaiton. Their forecast verified, the only real question is was it really 80 MPH or was it 85 MPH and seriously does it really matter?

I said this earlier, a tropical storm or hurricane in it's final stages of life that was a Major Hurricane for quite a while often packs a much stronger punch than a new upgraded storm coming to  life for the first time as was Julia shown above. They are animals of different colors and one has polka dots and one has stripes like on a Tiger. Beryl busted it's way through Texas and took out power across a wide area, with stronger than expected damages by many people who saw it as a ghost of it's old self. Never underestimate any named storm. Texas, especially, has been swamped by Tropical Storms in the past and many old timers will tell you not to ignore the dangers. 

And, that brings us back to history and being aware of weather history.

Andrew, a mighty Cat 5 OMG Hurricane knocked us all out for weeks, months and I'm talking areas far from landfall in Homestead. Logically so it was a Category 5, only upgraded after the fact when the data collected proved it was indeed a Cat 5. Will the NHC upgrade Beryl down the road? Maybe. But, only if the data supports an upgrade. Know many storms are downgraded, you usually don't read about that as it makes less headlines.

In Katrina, the Miami area that "only" received Cat 1 winds from a Hurricane that formed offshore took out most of the power grid. It made no sense, people were incensed, angry and demanding answers. FPL said they lost several substations which made a bad situation worse. After many articles written by investigative reporters as well as on air stories showed that as the Miami area had not had any direct hits by hurricanes in a long while..... sadly.......the many needed repairs of leaning power lines and aging substations were not upgraded during those "quiet times" tropically speaking. People were pissed and to be honest when people lost power again when Rita came near (not a direct hit) and then again even worse when Wilma hit the area again. 2005 was a memorable year for landfalling Major Hurricanes and it's an analog year this year in the new CSU report put out this week. FPL, supposedly, had made a lot of money in the quiet years and yet the grid was messy and needed repairs that were not done. Then after Katrina hit they had to put it back together. So, it wasn't a normal "get the lights back on" and remember in Broward County and North Dade Wilma was a Category 2 Hurricane... bit stronger and damage was higher than expected. 

Again..."than expected... because I suppose it was not Andrew. 

I want to add in 2004 areas in the North parts of Miami were slightly impacted by hurricanes, but not directly and the powers that be at the power companies should have addressed the problem of crooked power lines and aging substations; maybe they did but they had not yet gotten out in the field and repaired them. Don't know, I just know that many people shouldn't have been without power from a Category 1 Hurricane in Miami and that many people should not be out of power that long in Houston from a Category 1 Hurricane moving over them. 

In truth, from the strong hit that Houston had from Beryl it is logical to see it take a long while to get eveyrthing put back together. Down the road good reporters may find a story there and I'm sure agenda driven news will lash out at various leaders. Blame it on Mother Nature? Blame it on Texas is one of the states such as Florida that has seen a huge migration of the population from elsewhere to there after Covid and related issues you can read about in the news. It was a concern early on that IF Houston was hit by a hurricane this year that many of the newcomers from California that know what an Earthquake is like... would not appreciate the strength of a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Rather than staying home, they got on highways that became flowing rivers and some had to literally be rescused from their cars floating down the highway. My brother lived there back in the 80s and he complained at that time it happened all the time, so I can't really say why some in Houston expected a weak system or ignore how the bayou floods in a strong rain storm. He learned his lesson the hard way and after that he was cautious any time heavy rain was predicted let alone a hurriane!  The NHC made it very clear that there could be serious impacts from a sytem intensifying on landfall. Every on air "mediaologist" I know with a large audience such as Mike from Spaghetti Models aka Mike's Weather Page warned of possible dangerous impacts.

There's an old satying you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink and in ways this is true when it comes to hurricane preparation sadly it's very true. I was told by a good friend recently, "stop telling people to prepare for the 2024 Hurricane Season, they aren't listening" and yet I can't because if I help one person or ten people be prepared for a hurricane that visits their home, it was worth the time typing asking people to prepare.

As for Houston, where the temperatures are extemely hot and humid and totally unbearble without electric I feel your pain, it's wrong and the truth is power companies should be prepared to jump into action after a hurricane has passed. Trust me Cat Adjusters get in place fast ready to jump into action as soon as possible, if only power companies acted that fast! And, yes many have gotten their power back but many are still without power. And, remember this is about all the cities in Texas that were hit hard not just Houston where people are still without power and are trying to pick up the pieces and figure out what to do next, but there are a whole lotta people living in Houston so the focus is there today. There are way too many people without power on a day with an Excesssive Heat Warning.

Finally, there are 2 questions here.

1. Is part of the problem unrealistic expectations of a Hurricane such as Beryl that wasn't a Major anymore but still a hurricane? Were people in denial, both new to the area and old timers who felt this was not "The Big One" and if so why does the general public not realize that an 80 MPH Hurricane can cause this sort of damage and take the power out especially in a large city?

2. Is part of the problem an issue that growing metropolitan areas inherently have more problems keeping up with growth and are unprepaed when a hurricane makes landfall? Easy to blame officials and to be honest I've worked for a government agency that had a "Hurricane Plan" that we rehearsed, discussed and had meetings on regularly to remember everyone's particular job IF a hurricane was coming. And, to be honest when Katrina hit I watched as everyone panicked and many did not follow the plan. Is that human nature? I don't know, but there should be Emetgency Management Plans for Houston and so the question is...were they properly prepared or did someone let down the ball. I know it's early July, people go on vacations and yet again were the plans put into action properly?  And, even so it comes down to the question did the main power company there drop the ball and not act as the Emergency Managers expected they would have acted? And, yes I heard "they set up before the storm in the wrong spot" and I don't know if that's true but with the ever changing Cone it is possible someone high up made the wrong decision. That said, unless they set up in Colorado.... it sholdn't take that long to correct the problem. Again I'm not a Texan, only driven through a few times and the bottom line is something went terribly wrong.

According to Google....

Again this is the 4th largest city in America.

Mounting scrutiny indeed.

It's currently 89 degees at Noon as I type this...

...and Feels like over 100.

By 3 PM I can't even imagine how hot it'll be.

As good as the plans of the local government are on how to to pick up the pieces, if the power company was slow to the party to do their part there is only so much local government can do. And, as always once power crews from other states get into the area... generally it's a slow, tedious problem getting power back on as it takes a Village to get the power back on usually after a landfalling hurricane. 

Lastly, please take this very hot mess as a reason to get a hurricane plan. Buy a small generator if you can and know where you would go if you need to evacuate before or after a hurricane. As hard as it is to evacuate before a hurricane, it is harder after when it's almost impossible to get gas or even money out of an ATM that relies on electric and the electric grid was gone with the tropical wind! Stores are closed after a hurricane and then the grocers have to throw out the rotten produce and cold foods, then they have to restock and if there are any repairs they need to be fixed immediately before they can hope to get in food and get the power back on. And, I know this because after Hurricane Andrew it took weeks on Miami Beach to get back to any sense of normal with grocery stores closed, drug stores closed and for that matter Miami Beach itself was closed as police were at the bridges leading to Miami Beach and you had to show ID to get back on Miami Beach (before curfew) if they left to try and find food at a grocery story open further to the North where there was less damage. And, as it was hard to get gas, most people who stayed or went home after evacuating had stocked up before hand. There's nothing like the loop of a Cat 5 Hurricane to get people to run to Publix to buy Hurricane Supplies . . .  

If only people prepared for a tropical storm forecast to be a Hurricane that hit as a strong Cat 1 but with the punch of a Cat 2! Please learn from this history lesson into the trouble with hurricanes and trying to reason with them or the public that insists "it won't be that bad" until they lose power and have trees down all over their street where they live. 

Get a plan. 

Make a hurricane kit.

Keep the hurricane kit updated.

Follow the plan.

Please.

I'll update IF the NHC ups the yellow circle in any way as it's close in to very heavily populated beaches with locals and tourists that weren't expecting to get rainy days on their vacation and who may not take a yellow X with 10% serious if and when anything changes. Either way, expect rain at the beach from Florida up to the Carolinas, Georgia included!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather..

..Insta whatever.

Ps sorry for any typos, getting new glasses as these are scratched .... 

...and as always too much looping gives me a headache.