Hurricane Harbor: Yellow X Over Area Where We Often Look for Home Grown Close In Pop Up Surprise Tropical Systems. Introduced by NHC at 10% Yellow. Could We Get a Very Short Lived Debby or TD? Marginally Maybe. Hot, Wet Beach Days Stay Aware If Headed to the Beach There.

With Beryl No More....

...we turn our attn to a yellow X

This is the area I've talked about online and mentioned here, in that a large sprawling Upper Level Low seemingly anchored off the SE coast has upped rain potential along the coastline. Not only are beach goers dealing with high temperatures they will be dealing with high humidity, at least there's a beach breeze. Upper Level Lows can often "gulp"too much moisture into their very robust circulation and a Low Pressure area at the surface can develop. Or they enhance a set up nearby due to the very spin of the ULL connecting with other factors that enhance rainfall nearby. Rain is precipitation and that's why the MIMIC (that's the precipitable water vapor available basically) allows us to see these set ups well in advance as they begin to evolve. Trying to keep this simple here.

Bottom line is we are going to watch it, it has a "marginal chance" of forming according to the NHC that hoisted a yellow X over the purple splotch that was on the NOAA page the last few days. As the purple splotch (as I call it) lined up with the set up I'd seen evolving .. I went ahead and mentioned the purple splotch two days ago.

Could a very short lived Debby form off the SE coast over the next several days? It's a definite maybe, marginally possible set up. In a busy year and at a time when the deep tropics are busy and the Caribbean is trying to take a break and breathe after Beryl it's most logical to watch for close in development that is often off the Southeast Coast. If the stars and an Upper Level Low align as they could be doing. This area in the crook of the neck in the SE similar to the crook of the next of Gulf of Mexico near Texas often spins up fast, short lived tropical storms in July. Can't rule that out from happening, so keep watching and be aware if you are headed to a beach there.

2 things to look at here today.

Then I'm done.

This shows a very small Low on the ICON that hovers near the coastline in the area I talk on called the Georgia Bight and takes a little bite out of the coastal cities hovering and dancing around and then the Huge High (the second thing to watch) moves West just enough to push it away. Heavy rainfall forecast for this area, though personally I'd take rain at the beach anytime on a hot summer day than intense, beastly, burning the body and the sand sun. But I'm a Miami girl who had her fill of endless summer living up in the Carolinas enjoying the Seasons and also beautiful beaches.

Note while the li'l Low stradling the coastline has a relatively high pressure to get a name, when you subtract that pressure from the crazy high pressure of the High the differential can sometimes create a small low pressure area. In a sea of 1032 BM a little area of lower pressure seems more tropical than you would think. Note Rain Signature Forecast and you see with or without a name, there's a whole lot of rain concentrated there.