Good Morning Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl Cruising Fast at 22 MPH Packing 165 MPH Winds! 935 MB - So May Questions in the Aftermath of Yesterday's Tragic Landfall. Hurricane History a Look at Hurricane Allen

Good morning Beryl.

Looks like Earth has it's own big spot.

Like Jupiter... 

As the sun comes up....

...Beryl still looks picture perfect.

Pinhole eye.

Symmetrical banding

Seriously what we know is what is going on exactly inside the beast that is known as Beryl. It is a Category 5 Hurricane in early July with little analog data to compare to for research purposes. What other surprises does it have we have yet to see? Models and most forecasting takes into some account the time of year, the CLIMO and the general tracks and strength a Hurricane will possess as it moves around  the face of the globe subject to the influences that either call it forward or repel it away somewhere else. In the short term we know it does not yet want to slow down and is still barreling WNW at 22 MPH as if that's it's anthem, it's calling card. At some point, in theory, it has to slow down and feel the effects of shear, or land and the High pushing it fast along has to slow down. But, where and when?

So are you really a July Hurricane Beryl?
I ask this question.

Or do we throw CLIMO out the window...

...the way I said Beryl did when it developed.

And, just go with the flow of what is...??

Official Cone from 5 AM.

NHC stays with the program.

I'd rely on the white shorter term part.

Many questions remain on the shaded area.

Hurrtrackerapp shows the models.

They all show it crossing the Yucatan note.

I will update later today with models.

They are very good, follow them!

My issue this morning is while the Cone looks as always kind of carved in stone logical, an extrapolation of the last cone there are many unknowns. The discussion from the NHC reads as like a novel that is in the process of being written. A story board sits on the wall in front of the writer's desk and there are plot lines and characters and little yellow sticky notes stuck everywhere with possible questions. The situation is fluid, filled with creativity and yet the author is still looking for the perfect way to wrap the story up and has different possible endings in their mind. 

Quotes below from NHC Discusison 

"Still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico" is how the discussion begins to go off the rails from certainity of the facts now as they are currently known. 

More quotes from the Discussion at 5 AM that is written very well and honestly.

"Beryl's intensity forecast is also rather uncertain."

"Later on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican elevated terrain" (possible)

"The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears the Yucatan Peninsula."

Bottom line the NHC forecast "lies in the middle of the aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72" that means they know it will be "near" but they did not say "over" Jamaica. And, if it's near but not over then there is less interaction with Jamaica's beautiful mountains.

The discussion ends with this cliffhanger:

"This is quite an uncertain forecast beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors." 

That's written very legally correct to cover any problems that later may crop up. It's logical problems will crop up because this is Hurrican Beryl. 

It's honest.

There is not much to guage this against in history and models aren't clustered tightly at the end game and ensemble models that shoot out every possible thought in their head with no self control, raising their hand offering suggestions like that child everyone in class hates and and the teacher stares at nervously wishing they would just breathe and lower their hand and stop waving it around wildly.

So let's look at Hurricane History, as History does repeat and try to find a storm close enough to compare their to and this morning I'm going with Hurricane Allen. We are about a month ahead of Allen currently, but readers of this blog and those who follow me on Twitter know that I've said over and over we are running a month ahead (give or take) of CLIMO in the tropics so if we pretend this is August not July, the best hurricane I can find to compare it to is Hurricane Allen. 

Formed July 31st

Dississipated August 11th.

The track is very similar to the Cone.

The past is similar.

Does Beryl trace Allen's track?
More or less?

Allen's bottomline.

Again I'm not saying this is an Allen repeat.

I'm saying it's a good analog hurricane.

Well as good as I can find currently.

Now let's look at Beryl in the Caribbean.

This loop above shows many things other than Cat 5 Beryl center stage in the Caribbean. Out ahead of Berylis wind shear being blown directly in it's direction at an angle of 8 AM to 2 PM on the face of a clock. You can see the frontal boundary that is draped off the Carolina coast giving us 62 degrees this morning as if it's an early front in August not July when frontal boundaries go silent in these parts. You can see Invest 96L trying to get some color back as Beryl moves away from it and you can see the what is left from the awesome wave that rolled off of Africa while everyone was watching Beryl. I'd keep watching that personally.

So I'm going to end this post here and later today I will write a new one, when we have better information on what may or may not happen after 3 days with Beryl and when we know more about what did happen as it thrashed it's way across the Islands moving fast as if it had somewhere to go down the road

Game changers? What to look for evolving??

Next front and what that one does....

Tail of the old front even, dead but I'd still watch for reasons I'll explain in the next post.

Any Upper Level Lows that show up suddenly on the Water Vapor Loop.

All the regular steering current suspects we watch.

Because for now as the NHC so honestly said it's a quite uncertain forecast beyond 72 hours.

Have a good day. Do I really have to tell you to keep on the look out for items you would need for hurricane supplies on sale the next few days, especially with regard to July 4th sales. I'd also say to test run your situation and make sure your shutters are all in working condition and you aren't missing any parts, shutters like life are only as good as the weakest link. Especially if you live in Texas but anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, with the current pattern that's sound advice.

More to come....

          Stay tuned.

 BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

Here's a song from 1980 that was popular.

80 songs are always the best.

And this song was stuck in my head...

..as Beryl took aim on the Islands.