Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED 11 PM. CATEGORY 5 - Destruction everywhere on Carriaco. Where Does It Go Down the Road?? Carriacou Landfall!! Chris Inland. 96L 60% Orange.

Solid Red!

Cat 5!!

Look into the eye...

..you see a hurricane symbol!!

July 1st Cat 5 Hurricane in Caribbean.

After making a devastating landfall

Recon went in and found the data...

...to upgrade Beryl to Cat 5 Cane.

I've been around a long time.

Done this a long time.

Know a Cat 5 when I see one.

But... NHC makes the call.

I've really been doing this for a long time and learned much from friends in high places and have done tons of research at NHC libraries as well as other Archive Libraries and I'm tired and this reminds me of giving birth once in LA... Kaiser Permanente on Sunset Blvd in Hollywood actually. I don't remember much other than the baby came out and you just exhale, lay back and think "wow finally" lol and it's not funny because Beryl will go down in history as one of the most destructive hurricanes that trampled across a small island that's part of Grenada and ripped it apart into tons of tiny pieces of wood, painted wood, rooftops that flew in the wind into other buildings that lost their roof and buildings that on first glance look fine standing there til you realize there's daylight and you can see daylight through the roof that's gone.

Watched this wave from when it rolled off Africa and knew despite the early date on the calendar this wave was going to go all the way, get a name and make it across the Atlantic. But even tho it did look like a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Wave (if we named them) no one except the HWRF model I believe saw a Category on the Bingo Card.

People like me and my friends stay up hours watching loops and looking for every piece of innuendo hinting at rapid intensification, sharing thoughts and missing sleep to see one more loop, one more tweet, one more message.... it's an oddyssey of sorts ...whether we track, whether we chase (I've chased), whether we want to or not we are obsessed with the details. And, in this case it became obvious early that "that model" wasn't off the charts but the storm itself may go off the charts despite being late June.

In Raleigh usually the dog days of summer are in August or sometimes late July. This year they came early and we had days approaching and passing the 100 degree mark when we normally get warm days and cool nights. It's feels more like Late July than July 1st, and I've said here several times we are running a good 3 weeks to a month early in the tropics.

I feel bad for the people on Carriacou. and I'll be updating with links that are good or places you can go to help ...but it'll take a while to get them help and if you pray, and I pray... send prayers and hate to say this but it's not over til it's over and it's far from over. Beryl's oddyssey of epic proportions is not over as we turn out attention to Jamaica and how much latitude it may gain as it seems to be gaining latitude a bit more than planned and it's speed up to 22 MPH and often a strong hurricane like this lives on some odd adrenaline of perpetual motion. They can build a strong high aloft and carry it with them helping to propel them in the direction they want to go. More on that tomorrow.

Going to sleep.

Leaving a link of what it looked like on Carriacou as Beryl was bearing down every structure in it's path, ripping trees out of the ground, knocking down coconut palm trees that bend and doing to Carriacou what Maria did to Dominca before she moves on to Puerto Rico. Sorry for any typos I can barely see what I'm typing as I've watched so many loops I'm loopy.

Thank you for following along.

See Beryl as a punctuation point...

..on the forecast for a wicked, busy season.

Jim Williams of HurricaneCity...

...is a good friend.

He shared this on Twitter.

Landfall Beryl

Incredible video.

Nite.

****
9 PM

Heavy, heartbreaking destruction on Carriacou.

Take some time to watch this short drone video by WxChasing on YouTube. Broken colorful pieces of homes laying strewn about as if a child threw their Lego on the floor and an a monster came through and stomped all over it. Shattered. Here and there a newer building is standing looking okay, looks can be deceiving after a Category 4 as there are cracks and damages that's hard to see inside from a drone flying overhead. Brown mangroves, tilted palms with all it's fronds permanently bent in one direction, and those are the palms that didn't come down and lay littered by the beach.

This is a Cat 4 straddling the edge of Category 5. When it was at it's strongest, we had no recon in the storm. It's 155 MPH winds are still on the move through the Caribbean at a fast clip of 21 MPH forward speed heading WNW on it's way towards somewhere further down the line.

Hurricane Warnings for Jamaica.

And large questions remain on the end game.

Does it bend more to the North?

Does it go into Tex/Mex border?

Will discuss it tomorrow.

Today is a day to think.

Figure out what your plan will be.

What are your priorities.

This will be played out over and over...

...this busy season.

Optimal conditions for hurricanes persist.

Take it seriously, buy what you need.

Find sales, prepare.

Close up above.

Wide view below.

Center Stage Beryl.

Moving West.

New wave off Africa ... large.

Some shear before Jamaica...

Honestly, as soon as I saw the little Island North of Grenada and saw how Beryl was intensifying rapidly I had this feeling, I knew .... it was going to go right over the little Island that everyone now knows the name of... the way Maria trashed Dominca before moving on towards Puerto Rico. Always seems like the worst, meanest hurricanes don't stop at one landfall but keep going for another.

Thanks for reading. Keep reading if you did not do so earlier, the thoughts below were from this morning, late this morning watching Beryl move towards the Islands... and now I've written my thoughts after. Amazing hurricane from an academic point of view to study and think there was a chance it was a Cat 5 for a while but time will tell. Hope and pray the aid that is needed gets there fast as there are people without food, without power and probably many hurt who need good medical help. I've been told big ships cannot dock there and the airport cannot handle large planes. It's again, a worst case scenario during recovery the way it was a worst case scenario at landfall.

* * * * *

Noon as Beryl makes her move to landfall!

You can see the eye passing over Carriacou

150 MPH WNW at 20 MPH!

Pressure 950 MB

Such a worst case scenario.

Intensifying upon landfall!

You don't see hurricanes like this often.

Aesthetically beautiful, picture perfect.

Perfectly dangerous and deadly....

You can't see the islands, as they are covered by the intense solid core of Beryl. Carriacou Island, is a delightful spot in paradise but today a powerful hurricane has found it's way to a part of the Caribbean that rarely takes this sort of a punch. It's 12 miles long and 3 miles wide. For those of you who have been to Key West it's about 3 times the size but more elongated I'd say. Good news is it is moving quickly at 20 mph, the bad news is ...it's moving quickly ..... as you add that forward speed onto the winds making it feel stronger when it hits land. Personally, I'd rather it hit and get out of there then be stalled over it crawling, pounding Grenada and the Grenadines.

We will know more in a few hours on how they are faring, but many buidings are cute wooden shacks, colorful against the verdant green hillsides with incredible views of the beautiful blue water. What can be cute and quaint to take photos of to send back home, can not stand up well to strong hurricane winds let alone Cat 4 Hurricane winds. To be clear Carriacou is part of Grenada and people speak English there making it an easier destination for Americans looking to by a home in the Islands. Leaving a video here recently put up online by 2 journalists setting up to be in the path of Beryl. It's a good video that shows the island, the people and the problems of staying safe in a Cat 4 Hurricane on a small, beautiful island in the Carribean.

A live link as long as it's live.

From storm chasers on the island.

There's a link to donate to them...

...for the work they do.

You can check YouTube for video chasers put up.

Models ...Where's it going?

Why yes it does look like the last 2 storms.

Again concerns on Texas exist.

Majority go in South of the Border.

We have to see what Beryl looks like in real time after she moves deeper into the Caribbean where shear is said to be waiting for her in theory weakening her. Small storms moving fast seem to do well and yet being small they can flounder faster than a huge hurricane. I don't want to speculate beyond that now there's time to talk on that tomorrow. Generally, weaker lower westbound and stronger they want to turn more to the North or as much as the High Pressure allows. As high pressure is anchored over the SE part of the USA it seems the horrific, nonstop heat is keeping us temporarily safe from Hurricanes coming to our July 4th parties.

Invest 96L

Yes, that does look familiar ...doesn't it.

Again we have a pattern.

At some point it'll change.

Use that time wisely ....

It hasn't formed, it's too soon to tell "for sure" what 96L has in store for us and the next name up is Debby. Maybe it'll be poorly alligned and get too close to Hispaniola and fall over. We've been there before with a Debby and it left a mark on meteorologists insisting it would to on to the Florida Keys and fairly sure that won't happen again; at least not for those who remember that fiasco. That was August, this is July 1st and yes we are running fast ahead of schedule. Hopefully, that means Fall will bring us cool air early this year. To be fair we had a "cool front" roll through last night accompanied with rolling thunder and bringing us a fresh breeze, especially in the shade so I can't complain today...however the 100 degree temperatures are back for the weekend.

Debby, 2000. Poorly alligned vertically.

Back to Beryl.

There are just too many questions to say for sure Beryl is off to see Mexico. Yes, this is the GFS but other models hint at Beryl making a right turn somewhere and trying to hit the US mainland. Until that goes away, I can't say there's any all clear. All I can say is for now the High is strong, in place and moving Beryl along fast. Does she slow down? Does she get weaker, or stay surprisingly strong being small and more able to especially if she manages to avoid Jamaica's mountains. A stronger hurricane can want to go further to the North especially if timing is right and a front is pushing down calling it's name! Stay tuned.